Sweden as a Great Power?

I apologize if this has been brought up before, but I could not find anything relevant with the search function.

As mentioned briefly in another recent thread, Sweden was a second-rate power acting as a great power. What could've happened to make that transition to an actual great power? There are two things that weigh heavily against Sweden:

* Sweden has within Sweden and Finland (Österland) alone neither the population nor economic power base to accomplish this.
* There is a big Russia as neighbour which will make significant trouble for Sweden in the long term.

Much of Sweden's success during the 17th century sprung from the efficient administrative base of Sweden, which allowed it to utilize its resources very good for this period. Its Baltic possessions also helped a lot. For example, the largest city wasn't actually Stockholm, but rather Riga.

It seems to me that control of the Baltic could help a lot with this. Sweden was the power with the best position to do this. A first step would be the subjugation of Denmark. I believe that IOTL, Charles X came pretty close to accomplish this. I don't think it would be impossible. With the toll revenue of Dominium Maris Baltici, I think Sweden would be in a much better position, as it would net enormous riches.

And what about the aspirations of colonies? If Sweden could get at Denmark, having her colonies would perhaps make it easier. A big problem is that Sweden didn't have very much power projection in the Atlantic, leading to problems holding onto its colonies in the Americas. And indeed, IOTL Sweden did lose its colonies to the Dutch. Something like a more committed navy in the Atlantic or sharing a border with the Dutch could perhaps help with this. And IOTL many Swedes did migrate to North America, so I don't think population would be that much of a problem.

What about Russia? Perhaps Russia would be less united. Having to deal with Novogorod would be much easier than the giant that was Muscovy. Or perhaps Russia had more problem with Mongols and such.

Thoughts?
 
If you totally neuter Russia and Denmark-Norway and P-L is too distracted a Baltic-dominant Sweden dictating terms in the Northern Germanies seems plausible on the surface. Still, though, how much of a "Great Power" it becomes is debatable. It'd need population and resources. Maybe a lot of German possessions would help (Swedo-Prussian "Gurkhas"?), but that's a quagmire all by itself.

Perhaps some sort of reverse Kalmar Union situation or a Great Vasa Union with P-L? Stockholm-dominated "Russian" empire?

The question is when does it stop being "Sweden" and start being "Poland" or "Russia" or "Scandanavia"?

Assuming D-N is not "in the way" to Swedish shipping Colonies are reasonable, assuming they can support them and protect them from the other powers (and not just lose them like New Sweden OTL).
 
A personal union with Poland-Lithuania is your best bet to gain the necessary resources. Once that is secure, subjugating Denmark-Norway is fairly easy, though great care will have to be taken to avoid French, British, or Dutch intervention, since none of those powers will be happy to see one power control the entire Baltic and all its shipbuilding resources.

The problem with a personal union with Poland is the religious divide and the fact that Poland is an elective monarchy, not hereditary. Perhaps another Vasa is elected King instead of Sigismund III in 1587, who then gets help from Sigismund (when he becomes King of Sweden) in centralizing the country. His reforms reduce the power of the nobility, removes the liberum veto, and institutes This guy (let's make him John, the other son of John III) then dies without issue (let's say 1618 as OTL) , so Sigismund III becomes king of Sweden and Poland. He probably has to fight to gain control of Poland, as he is Protestant, but the main powers that could fight him are being distracted by the beginning of the Thirty Years' War.

Have that rebellion settled by ~1630, then get Gustav II Adolf on the throne. Maybe Sigismund dies without issue, and then Charles IX dies fairly soon (will do wonders for the war in Poland, but hey), so Gustav gets on the throne. Now, you will have all the opportunities of the raging Thirty Years' War to play with. With luck the Swedes will be able to get some choice bits of northern German (the OTL bits plus the rest of Pommerania and maybe Mecklenburg), plus hegiomony over the rest. If this is kept for the rest of the century, and Denmark-Norway subdued, Sweden will be in a good position to be a great power.

The manpower problem should be largely solved at this point, and Sweden will have no trouble building a navy since it controls the Baltic. An East India Company would be very helpful for getting more wealth, and the colonies in North America could be developed fairly well if they get all of OTL Pennsylvania. A sugar island or two in the Caribbean wouldn't hurt either.
 

yourworstnightmare

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Swallowing Denmark- Norway, and thus completely dominate the north is a must if Sweden want to become a Great Power. North American colonies are a problem due to Scandinavia not really having a big surplus population (they wouldn't get as many settlers there as the historical colonizers of North America). Sugar islands should be doable. Denmark historically got a few and Sweden had St. Bartholomé. A stronger Sweden would probably have a couple more of them. Also a port in West Africa would be nice.

However, for Sweden to keep her position as the dominating force in the Baltic Sea, two things can't happen.
1) Russia getting out of the Chaos. A strong Russia would always mean the demise of Sweden.
2) No big power in North Germany (like Prussia). A North German hegemon would be able to beat a Scandinavian power.
 
1) Let's say that Kalmar Union has done its job and Scandinavia is united. ( read, no numerous wars and thus squandering of resources and what little manpower those states always had ). And instead of Denmark Sweden in time takes role as a leading member of the union.

2) If all that happens in time AND has weak or disinterested Russia on her border AND can enter first into colonization game of north america, going ever south from Newfoundland. A plus would be if she somehow dominates the trade of her part of Europe instead of Hansa.

3) When industrialization kicks if she has an american mentality/methods of attracting immigrants and successfully assimilating them, so that she does not fall behind in teh size of the workforce pool.

4) No wars from 18 century onwards, as she wisely did. ( Possibly by enacting some diplomatic wonder of a "eternal friendship" deal with Russia ).
 
My timeline has plans to cover this very thing, though it's "asleep" right now. The answer I devised was conquering Lithuania, and Danish Pomerania, and forming a strong alliance with Brandenburg-Prussia in 1660. I figured that killing John II of Poland would make Sweden really win the Second Northern War. Following that defeat, Denmark falls under a more moderate dynasty and stays out of Russo-Swedish wars for a century or so. This makes Sweden beat Russia easily in the *Great Northern War, which prevents Russia from gaining any Baltic territory and becoming an empire, forcing the Tsardom to become a more southern-oriented state. As far as colonies go, a total Swedish victory in the Second Northern War could force the Dutch to give back New Sweden in *Delaware as well as integrating the once-Courlander colonies in Gambia and the Carribean into the Swedish empire.

In a nutshell, hold on to the Baltic countries and get rid of Denmark.
 
I would agree that Karl X Gustav living longer and finishing off Denmark 1660 (annexing the whole thing) would be the basic requirement. Get Peter killed in Russia, and Russia will continue to be a 2nd rate power, while Poland-Lithuania slides downwards as OTL.

Dealing with Prussia will probably not be that hard with no threat from Poland-Lithuania and a diminished one from Russia. Especially if you have added the Sound toll and near-death grip on the resources the seafaring powers need (tar, hemp, wood). The fact that the control of the Baltic will allow this Sweden to go whereever it wants in the Baltics, but that the northern German states cannot go to any of the core territory except Jutland will add to the advantage of Sweden too.
 
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Even if she did won the Great Northern War and killed Peter in the process and won total maritime domination over Baltic she would not be a great power. Her population size would not let her be that. But as I wrote above, if she would be able to remedy that than it is possible.
 

yourworstnightmare

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Even if she did won the Great Northern War and killed Peter in the process and won total maritime domination over Baltic she would not be a great power. Her population size would not let her be that. But as I wrote above, if she would be able to remedy that than it is possible.
Sweden would need a serious population boost if she want profitable North American Colonies. But if the Swedish navy can control the Baltic, Russia and Prussia are both strangled, and Sweden have profitable Caribbean islands and a port in Africa, then Sweden would indeed be a Great Power (but not be able to compete for North America).
 
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Something that makes the Ottomans stronger in the Crimea and Ukraine areas will probably be a big help to Sweden as well. If Russia is busy responding to Crimean Khan attacks supported by Ottoman troops/supplies then Sweden has a lot more breathing space.
 
I like the suggestions so far.

The question is when does it stop being "Sweden" and start being "Poland" or "Russia" or "Scandanavia"?
Perhaps it should be more clarified as "Swedish Empire" since, after all, there wasn't much of a nationality consciousness in the early-modern period.
 
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