Redbeard
Banned
Norway had a huge merchant navy and Norway simply couldn't afford to be enemy of the leading sea power - so no siding with enemies of the British Empire. If a Swedish "big brother" would try to enforce a foreign policy based on Swedish interests it would mean the Union vaporising very quickly.
I don't think being friendly to Germany is worth that for Sweden if the Union otherwise can continue.
Seen from Germany before the fall of France the access to Swedish iron ore through Narvik in Norway would be very important and if that demands an invasion of both Norway and Sweden (and Denmark) that is what will happen. By 1940 the Swedish armed forces were relatively weak and its stocks of weapons and ammo depleted by support to Finland, I think it will be very well inside the German capacity to overwhelm Scandinavia.
After that things might become very interesting however. If Fall Gelb is postponed like Barbarossa was after the need for a Balkan operation first (from may to June) it might very well mean the French being beefed up enough for fall Gelb to bog down - which means the end of Hitler soon.
I don't think being friendly to Germany is worth that for Sweden if the Union otherwise can continue.
Seen from Germany before the fall of France the access to Swedish iron ore through Narvik in Norway would be very important and if that demands an invasion of both Norway and Sweden (and Denmark) that is what will happen. By 1940 the Swedish armed forces were relatively weak and its stocks of weapons and ammo depleted by support to Finland, I think it will be very well inside the German capacity to overwhelm Scandinavia.
After that things might become very interesting however. If Fall Gelb is postponed like Barbarossa was after the need for a Balkan operation first (from may to June) it might very well mean the French being beefed up enough for fall Gelb to bog down - which means the end of Hitler soon.