Sweden and Lithuania, sitting in a tree...
- Thread starter Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy
- Start date
Well, this would require a very specific point to work. You would need Swedish armies to occupy Poland-Lithuania for at least a decade, and a puppet Polish king properly elected by Polish Sejm (influenced by Sweden of course) wouldn't hurt either. That king would have to be both good ruler (maintaining order in Poland, crushing any attempt of rebellion against) and a bad ruler (not throwing the Swedes away on his own) at the same time.
The POD for this might be the Swedes taking Jasna Góra monastery with first assault AND treating the monks well afterwards. (But my mind rebels against such a POD - as it would erase one of Polish most beatiful moments in history.)
Afterwards: Swedes will eventually want to withdraw, as they can't afford occuping the country that is bigger than theirs. P-L Commonwealth is separated in three states: Lithuania (which will be shortly absorbed by Russia, I doubt Swedes will offer them any significant help in that unavoidable conflict), Danzig League (merchant cities of northern Poland creating a state that is a mix of Estonia and Netherlands) and Rump Poland (which would face a civil war afterwards). After the civil war - who knows?
All in all - Swedes and Russians are the winners in this scenario. Poland and Lithuanians lose too much to compensate for "indepence from each other" and a chance for more radical reforms.
The POD for this might be the Swedes taking Jasna Góra monastery with first assault AND treating the monks well afterwards. (But my mind rebels against such a POD - as it would erase one of Polish most beatiful moments in history.)
Afterwards: Swedes will eventually want to withdraw, as they can't afford occuping the country that is bigger than theirs. P-L Commonwealth is separated in three states: Lithuania (which will be shortly absorbed by Russia, I doubt Swedes will offer them any significant help in that unavoidable conflict), Danzig League (merchant cities of northern Poland creating a state that is a mix of Estonia and Netherlands) and Rump Poland (which would face a civil war afterwards). After the civil war - who knows?
All in all - Swedes and Russians are the winners in this scenario. Poland and Lithuanians lose too much to compensate for "indepence from each other" and a chance for more radical reforms.
