Sweden and Italy on CPs side

Lordy, how did I miss this thread? :eek:

Ok, the big thing will be selling the war to the Italian people. OTL the Irredentists were rabid over Trento and Trieste and most considered the hated Austrians the true enemy. That said, as pointed out earlier there's a possibility to sell a war for French irredentist claims plus some Austrian gains. This is possible if Germany pressures AH to release at least the Trentino (as they were willing to OTL; note: NOT including ethnically German South Tyrol/Alto-Adige (to the watershed) as Italy took OTL) and Goriza, though as stated they *might* also be willing to forfeit Trieste and Istria if they can make Fiume a suitable sub.

Who's in charge in Italy is a factor. Giolitti is an avowed neutralist and would be happy to take the Trentino offer as a neutrality buy-out. Sonnino caved to irredentist demands OTL, but he'd be more likely to join the war, even CP.
 

Eurofed

Banned
Lordy, how did I miss this thread? :eek:

Ok, the big thing will be selling the war to the Italian people. OTL the Irredentists were rabid over Trento and Trieste and most considered the hated Austrians the true enemy. That said, as pointed out earlier there's a possibility to sell a war for French irredentist claims plus some Austrian gains. This is possible if Germany pressures AH to release at least the Trentino (as they were willing to OTL; note: NOT including ethnically German South Tyrol/Alto-Adige (to the watershed) as Italy took OTL) and Goriza, though as stated they *might* also be willing to forfeit Trieste and Istria if they can make Fiume a suitable sub.

Who's in charge in Italy is a factor. Giolitti is an avowed neutralist and would be happy to take the Trentino offer as a neutrality buy-out. Sonnino caved to irredentist demands OTL, but he'd be more likely to join the war, even CP.

Pretty much what you you say in the first paragraph is correct. Now, overcoming Giolitti and his neutralist faction in the liberal ruling elite won't be a significant problem: the pro-war coalition (the right-wing faction of the liberals, the nationalists, the vast majority of the irredentists, the industrialists, many of the landowners, the court party) were able to overcome them relatively easily IOTL and shall do so ITTL. Only the left-wing radical faction of the irredentists specifically held a grudge towards the conservative Austria, most of them and the rest of the pro-war coalition were ready to march equally against France or against Austria to gain irredentist claims and make Italy a great power.

Salandra and Sonnino are expected to align with the war faction when it goes pro-CP ITTL just as they did IOTL when it went pro-Entente. The Socialists shall be hostile to the war anyway, apart from a fringe (Mussolini) that jumped through some ideological loopholes to become pro-war IOTL, they may or may not duplicate the feat ITTL, but it does not matter really, the nationalists easily won the battle in the streets and disrupted socialist opposition when it mattered.
 
Last edited:
Swedish aftermath?

How would entering the war affect Swedish politics after the peace(presuming that Sweden would retain its sovereignty)? What would happen with the Social democrats and the development of the welfare state?
 

Eurofed

Banned
How would entering the war affect Swedish politics after the peace(presuming that Sweden would retain its sovereignty)? What would happen with the Social democrats and the development of the welfare state?

Well, I would defer to someone more expert than me about the details of Swedish history on this matter, but I think that domestically things would not change overmuch in comparison to OTL. As a matter of fact, I do expect that ITTL Germany and Italy would evolve towards a political trajectory somewhat similar to OTL Sweden, with powerful reformist social democrats parties, even if they would not be so dominant as in Sweden (I do expect a three-party or four-party system, with the social democrats, the christian democrats, the liberals, and the conservative nationalists, in both countries). Probably the net effect is that the Swedish SD would not be so dominant, and the center-of-right parties would check them more effectively. But I do expect a strong welfare state to develop in Germany, Italy, and Sweden alike. It's probably going to become one of the hallmarks of the German-led EU. The main difference, of course, is that Sweden shall drop neutralism, and become one of the major players in the German-led EU and the Alliance. Not so important as Italy or (Austria-)Hungary, but close.
 

Rubicon

Banned
I'm a bit more interested in after a Brest-Litovsk peace what the status if Finland would be. I can see how every Finn on this board would howl for liberty or death, but would Finland get it?
Perhaps an alternative in which Sweden and Finland enters an equal union in the same style as Great Britain is (though I'm sure every Scotsman will howl for my blood after calling their union with England equal ;) ) possible. There are (and where) a rather strong minority in Finland with Swedish as their first language.
But at the very least Åland would be returned to Sweden (something every Finn I know would be jubilant about)

(and just think of the Finnish-Swedish icehockey team..... every Canadians nightmare)
 

Eurofed

Banned
I'm a bit more interested in after a Brest-Litovsk peace what the status if Finland would be. I can see how every Finn on this board would howl for liberty or death, but would Finland get it?
Perhaps an alternative in which Sweden and Finland enters an equal union in the same style as Great Britain is (though I'm sure every Scotsman will howl for my blood after calling their union with England equal ;) ) possible. There are (and where) a rather strong minority in Finland with Swedish as their first language.
But at the very least Åland would be returned to Sweden (something every Finn I know would be jubilant about)

Outraged chest-thumping from assorted nationalist wankers is to be ignored if one is serious about writing AH. ;):D Many more people make wild nationalist claims about "liberty or death" than they (or more properly, their ancestors) would be able or willing to grab a gun in RL.

I routinely throw Canada in the USA and Austria in Germany in my TLs if given half a butterfly chance because I really can't stand incomplete national unifications, but if you listen to Canuck nationalist wank-kongers, Canada would never willingly or even reluctantly submit to Yankee rule from 1774 to 2010 even if twelve legions of angels would show up in Ottawa bringing the Almighty's command for the union. :rolleyes::eek:

More to the point, I think that a Sweden-Finland union would be most plausible ITTL, given the pivotal role that Sweden would have played in the liberation of Finland, Nordic political and cultural ties, and the sizable Swedish-speaking minority in Finland.
 
Nah, Sweden didn't want Finland. I'd say Åland and guarantees regarding the rights of the Swedish-speaking miniority in Finland would be more likely (well, that and Finland becoming independent in a *Brest-Litovsk, even an overall less severe analogue).
 

Susano

Banned
And maybe Dagö and Ösel (and Id have nearly said Wiek again instead of one of the islands, I always mix them up). That is, at least I like to give Sweden those islands in my scenarios :D
 

Eurofed

Banned
(well, that and Finland becoming independent in a *Brest-Litovsk, even an overall less severe analogue).

Well, the very most lenient peace that I foresee Russia getting ITTL would involve getting pushed back to pre-Napoleonic borders. Losing Finland, Poland, at the very least Lithuania and quite possibly all the Baltic states, and Bessarabia (if Romania is CP).
 
I'm surprised no one has mentioned Spain yet. In Spain the conservatives were pro-German and if the CP do well with Italy, Sweden and Romania joining I would think that Spain may eventually join in. Although Spain was relatively minor power, they did export a great deal of food to France throughout the war.
The Spanish may want to get a larger chunk of Morocco (if not the whole country outright if they give Germany preferential economic treatment). Also, in Algeria the departement of Oran since the European population was overwhelmingly Spanish (right up until 1962). Perhaps Roussillon (lost in 1659) and a chunk of French Equatorial Africa. Of course a major aim would be Gibraltar as well, but this one could be a bit of a stretch.

Finally, I know that Tunisia had been mentioned and it is worth pointing out that in 1911 time Tunisia had a European population of 148,476 with around 88,082 Italians, 46,044 French (around half were naturalised Italians) and 11,300 Maltese. Is it not conceivable that these Italians (most of whom are recent immigrants arriving after 1881) will rally to the side of Italy? Also worth pointing out is that the majority of Europeans in Eastern Algeria were Italians as well.
 

Eurofed

Banned
I'm surprised no one has mentioned Spain yet. In Spain the conservatives were pro-German and if the CP do well with Italy, Sweden and Romania joining I would think that Spain may eventually join in. Although Spain was relatively minor power, they did export a great deal of food to France throughout the war.
The Spanish may want to get a larger chunk of Morocco (if not the whole country outright if they give Germany preferential economic treatment). Also, in Algeria the departement of Oran since the European population was overwhelmingly Spanish (right up until 1962). Perhaps Roussillon (lost in 1659) and a chunk of French Equatorial Africa. Of course a major aim would be Gibraltar as well, but this one could be a bit of a stretch.

I seem to remember that I made some mention of Spain upthread, but it is has been a while. My basic assumption on them is that yes, they can eventually join the CP in this scenario, precisely seeking the gains you quote. However, because of lingering post-1898 exhaustion, they would do so quit late, when Russia is gone or almost so, and France is teetering. They can easily get Roussillon, Oran, and French Navarra. Not French Morocco or Equatorial Africa, however. That would infringe on intended German booty. Gibraltar is not so outlandish as it may seem. Britain would get a rather lenient peace overall, but the CPs would make the exception with a concerned effort to uproot their bases in the Mediterranean. Certainly Malta and Cyprus, quite possibly Gibraltar as well. That's the one naval theater where the RN is vulnerable, after France is gone.
 
Top