Sweden and A Land Grab

Or rather, Åland grab. ;)

In the event that Finland's military resistance to the USSR during the Winter War collapses, is it possible to imagine Sweden moving to occupy the Åland Islands? They're Swedish-speaking, and occupying them keeps the Soviets one step further away from Stockholm.

Is there much potential in this?
 
I think so. The Alanders would be likely to welcome them in, and if Sweden tacitly recognised Soviet gains in Mainland Finland, they could strike a deal for the islands (possibly with some of the extreme north as well.
 
I kind of imagine it would be turned into a Soviet naval base due to its important location - but that is also why Sweden would be interested in it.
 
Yes, it is almost certain that Sweden would occupy it if Finland collapses. Plans and forces were ready for it, both 1918 and 1940.

Most likely, much of the Finnish army, navy and large parts of the civilian society would flee to Sweden in case of a Finnish collapse. The Finnish government would probably ask Sweden to "assume military control and uphold order" on Åland "for the duration of the hostilities" and set up an exile government there.

Åland as a Finnish demilitarised zone was acceptable to Sweden. As militarised and Soviet was totally unacceptable. Sweden would risk war with the Soviets over the issue.

Sweden would not recognise the Terijoki (Kuusinen) government, but would not do anything specific against it either.
 
Sweden would want to occupy Åland and might even try it, but would it lead to Åland becoming a part of Sweden, even de facto if not de jure? I find it unlikely.

I have crossed swords with von Adler over this in other threads, and basically I just don't believe the Swedish government would be united behind an occupation scheme that would risk making the nation a combatant in the world war.

1918 offers a good comparison. The Swedish Navy had a presence in Åland and the plan to take over the islands was approved by many in the parliament, as well as the royals, but when it came to a showdown with a major power (that time Germany, supporting the Finnish [White] government), Sweden backed down to stay on the safe side.

There were pre-WWII plans for a joint naval defence of Åland, but during the OTL Winter War they were not realized. They were dashed together with all other binding measures of open support to Finland. Which in Sweden proved (domestically) politically impossible, as desperate Finnish envoys found out.

After the fall of Finland into Soviet sphere or actual annexation is fait accompli, would Stockholm really have the political will and unity to challenge a major power and risk war, reversing a hundred-and-thirty-year tradition of neutrality? Make that two major powers if Germany still (at least ostensibly) stands behind the MR pact and openly rebuffs the Swedish plans.

What did Finland do whan Stalin turned on the heat? Really contemplated about doing things like handing over some of its national territory or otherwise undermining its sovereignty. Facing the the prospect of being next on the butcher's block, would Sweden actually move to occupy land that Stalin already claims as his own?

I can well imagine the political stress the Swedish government would be under. "Not making any rash moves" might well be the order of the day.
 
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