swap alliances ww1

OTL at the start of WWI Germany was the strongest lanpower by far, while France and Russia was 2nd and 3rd. OTL they together couldnt beat Germany (and weaker allies). Now if any of these sides with Germany there is no way that side wont win.
 

gurgu

Banned
OTL at the start of WWI Germany was the strongest lanpower by far, while France and Russia was 2nd and 3rd. OTL they together couldnt beat Germany (and weaker allies). Now if any of these sides with Germany there is no way that side wont win.
well yes and no. Russia was indeed the third powers on land but i think nobody expected the revolution so i assume that in the beginning AH will suffer like hell, but if manages to survive( bulgarian\turkish help?) until the exhaustation reaches it's peak in russia...
 

JAG88

Banned
well yes and no. Russia was indeed the third powers on land but i think nobody expected the revolution so i assume that in the beginning AH will suffer like hell, but if manages to survive( bulgarian\turkish help?) until the exhaustation reaches it's peak in russia...

EVERYONE expected ANOTHER Russian revolution in case if war after the 1905 one, that is what the German diplomats were counting on in 1914 in order to break the Entente over the FF murder.
 

gurgu

Banned
EVERYONE expected ANOTHER Russian revolution in case if war after the 1905 one, that is what the German diplomats were counting on in 1914 in order to break the Entente over the FF murder.
well, my mistake but then if i resemble in OTL Germany even sent Lenin but if he's not in TTL what would be the result, Bukharin soviet u(o)nion or Trotsky in power instead of secretly creating KFC?
 

Deleted member 94680

Russia-Austria is the real alt-Alliance that “makes sense”. Two reactionary empires, confined to Europe, with sore points in the Balkans, both with aims on the Mediterranean coast and reasons to be weary of Germany. Their contiguous land border makes it a better alliance as well.

Shame bluster and personalities got in the way of geopolitical interests.


But with the OP’s scenario: German-Russian win. One assumes the Germans have been supporting to Russians for a fair period pre-WWI*, so their military will fair much better. All it requires is the Germans to hold the line against the French whilst the Russians roflstomp the Austrians before the G-R Alliance rolls on to Paris.
 
Russia-Austria is the real alt-Alliance that “makes sense”. Two reactionary empires, confined to Europe, with sore points in the Balkans, both with aims on the Mediterranean coast and reasons to be weary of Germany. Their contiguous land border makes it a better alliance as well.

Does that really make more sense than Russia-Germany? I can't think of any obvious areas with conflicts of interests with Germany, while with Austria there's the obvious contention on the Balkans. Not to mention the idea of Pan-Slavism would be a huge issue between the two, if it ever gains too much currency in Russia. Also not sure why they should be more wary of Germany than of each other. Not to mention the land borders between Russia and Germany is basically the same size as between Russia and A-H, so not sure what that has to do with anything.
 

Deleted member 94680

Does that really make more sense than Russia-Germany? I can't think of any obvious areas with conflicts of interests with Germany, while with Austria there's the obvious contention on the Balkans. Not to mention the idea of Pan-Slavism would be a huge issue between the two, if it ever gains too much currency in Russia. Also not sure why they should be more wary of Germany than of each other. Not to mention the land borders between Russia and Germany is basically the same size as between Russia and A-H, so not sure what that has to do with anything.

Well there’s the (largely settled, admittedly) leadership of the Germanic people issue between Germany and Austria, the competition for influence and control in Poland and polish lands, whilst going forward there will be the eventual subjugation and relegation to secondary status of Austria to German dominance under the strains of WWI.

The idea would be that Austro-Russian cooperation reduces the competition in the Balkans, it would be squarely aimed at solving the conflicting influences to the benefit of both nations. I read a few years ago (I can’t say for certain, but I think it was in Twilight of the Hapsburgs: The collapse of the Austro-Hungarian Empire by Z.A.B. Zeman) a section in a book that pointed out that Austria and Russia had more to offer each other as partners than as opponents. Both nations were bedevilled by extremists that sought protection or shelter in the other’s territories (the Polish for Russia and the Serbs for Austria) and both had issues with the rise of Ukrainian nationalism. By combining their efforts and removing the support for each other’s problems, the two nations could more readily confront their Great Power opponents with a secure backing (the Austrians to Italy, the Russians to Germany).

As to the territory, granted the distances might be similar, but to my (admittedly not professional or heavily studied) eye, the manoeuvre warfare in WWI between Austria and Russia compares more favourably than the Russian problems against the Germans with the restriction of the Mansurian Lakes and the Pripet Marshes.
 
Well there’s the (largely settled, admittedly) leadership of the Germanic people issue between Germany and Austria, the competition for influence and control in Poland and polish lands, whilst going forward there will be the eventual subjugation and relegation to secondary status of Austria to German dominance under the strains of WWI.

Notably those are all points why it would make sense for Austria to form an alliance aimed against Germany, not Russia. Though none of these seem particularly convincing. As you said, the leadership debate had been settled. Poland has been entirely divided, and I don't think alteration to these divisions had high priority for any of the three powers, as these territories oftentimes were more trouble than anything else. The last point point could be valid if Austria had that much foresight, but it also seems like a very teleological view.



By combining their efforts and removing the support for each other’s problems, the two nations could more readily confront their Great Power opponents with a secure backing (the Austrians to Italy, the Russians to Germany).

Again, I mostly see this as a benefit for Austria, not Russia. Depending on when exactly we imagine these coalitions form, Russia and Germany have no real reason to be Great Power opponents, as they have very few opposing interests. Really, until the to me inexplicable and seemingly irrational pushing away of Russia by Germany, there's really no reason for any antagonism. Until that time and even beyond, Great Britain was and should have been the Great Power opponent of the Russians. They opposed many of the main geopolitical goals Russia tried to accomplish: Access to the Mediterranean. Expansion in Central Asia. Expansion in the Far East. And when Great Britain is your major opponent, Germany seems like a much more valuable ally if you are looking for secure backing. Especially once Wilhelm II starts dreaming about becoming a major naval power.

So despite the real benefits you listed, I think Russia would benefit more from a German-Russian alliance. Especially considering that Austria-Hungary most likely has no option but to remain in that alliance bloc anyway due to the precarious strategic position. So Russia could basically eat their cake and have it too.
 

Deleted member 94680

Notably those are all points why it would make sense for Austria to form an alliance aimed against Germany, not Russia. Though none of these seem particularly convincing. As you said, the leadership debate had been settled. Poland has been entirely divided, and I don't think alteration to these divisions had high priority for any of the three powers, as these territories oftentimes were more trouble than anything else. The last point point could be valid if Austria had that much foresight, but it also seems like a very teleological view.





Again, I mostly see this as a benefit for Austria, not Russia. Depending on when exactly we imagine these coalitions form, Russia and Germany have no real reason to be Great Power opponents, as they have very few opposing interests. Really, until the to me inexplicable and seemingly irrational pushing away of Russia by Germany, there's really no reason for any antagonism. Until that time and even beyond, Great Britain was and should have been the Great Power opponent of the Russians. They opposed many of the main geopolitical goals Russia tried to accomplish: Access to the Mediterranean. Expansion in Central Asia. Expansion in the Far East. And when Great Britain is your major opponent, Germany seems like a much more valuable ally if you are looking for secure backing. Especially once Wilhelm II starts dreaming about becoming a major naval power.

So despite the real benefits you listed, I think Russia would benefit more from a German-Russian alliance. Especially considering that Austria-Hungary most likely has no option but to remain in that alliance bloc anyway due to the precarious strategic position. So Russia could basically eat their cake and have it too.

This is all why the Dreikaiserbund is the real “sensible” Alliance they failed for what was really minor reasons. Von Holstein has a lot to answer for...
 

JAG88

Banned
This is all why the Dreikaiserbund is the real “sensible” Alliance they failed for what was really minor reasons. Von Holstein has a lot to answer for...

What is utterly depressing is that German foreign policy needed very little to succeed:

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Ass covered, now you can go and play and do whatever you want to do...
 
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