Svalbard and Franz Josef Land without WWI

[Georgie Washington]

So, my question is- say WWI doesnt happen because there is no assassination in Sarajevo; could (not would) Austria-Hungary claim Svalbard (Spitzbergen) and Franz Josef Land and use their Arctic experience to do Antarctic research and claims (like Norway IOTL did). Clearly Norway and the Russian Empire would be pissed, perhaps we could see horse trading or an international regulatory treaty similar to what was imposed on Norway with their administration of Svalbard IOTL. For instance Norway claimed Canadian islands for no reason other than to horse trade with Britain for recognition of Norway's claim to Jan Mayen and other islands. Perhaps Austria-Hungary could do something similar... Austria trades both groups to Russia in return for Russia turning its back on... I don't know maybe... Albania which gets a Habsburg prince ruling it?

Any thoughts?

 

[Lalli]

WW1 was going to happen. If not assassination of Franz Ferdinand some another incident is going start that.

But still I can't see A-H taking these distant islands. Did it even wanted these? And it would be hellish job govern them. And the empire had already enough to do with its then territories. More plausible would be Germany taking them.

 

[Georgie Washington]

WW1 was going to happen. If not assassination of Franz Ferdinand some another incident is going start that.

But still I can't see A-H taking these distant islands. Did it even wanted these? And it would be hellish job govern them. And the empire had already enough to do with its then territories. More plausible would be Germany taking them.

Austria-Hungary at least has legitimate exploration to bolster a claim to these islands; Germany doesn't even have a tenuous claim based on anything. Both were terra nullius only because A-H never formalized their claim; resulting in Norway getting Svalbard after WWI was done and something had to be done with it; and then the Soviet Union took Franz Josef to stop the Norwegians from taking it too, and that makes the last terra nullius except for Antarctica.

 

[Chris Triangle]

WW1 was going to happen. If not assassination of Franz Ferdinand some another incident is going start that.

But still I can't see A-H taking these distant islands. Did it even wanted these? And it would be hellish job govern them. And the empire had already enough to do with its then territories. More plausible would be Germany taking them.

Yeah, I would disagree that WWI was truly inevitable before Franz Ferdinand assaination. Was a war of some kind in the Balkans likely? Yes. But I think it's a bit of a leap to claim that it and especially the general European war was truly inevitable.

Anyway, yes, Austria could claim Franz Joseph land and could do so without any major incident, at least, initially. Theoretically, their claim would not really matter much and countries interested in it could simply ignore the claim because nobody would really ever be around. They would really not be governed at all. Most people wouldn't even notice it save for a few postage stamps and some arctic themed memorabilia celebrating the whole thing. Russia would be annoyed but it would probably not have trouble getting the islands from Austria at some point, be it by purchase, by a token consession or tagged on to some treaty as a show of goodwill after Austria lost interest and/or a lot of Russians started trespassing. They could alternatively give them to Norway, though that would be pretty pointless. Germany will in all likelihood not take them nor will it ask for them. Germany never showed interest in that expanding into the polar regions and believe it or not, would rather not unnecessarily bug Russia.