Surviving Vandalia!!

POD: Justinian does no more than offer some diplomatic gestures in the Vandal succession crisis and certainly, no matter what, does not invade! So, no Vandal Wars (which, of course, might mean that Justinian doesn't invade Italy either ... but that's a related, but seperate, question.) Finally, due to butterflies, a certain great Prophet is not born or, if he is, follows an entirely different path.

My question for you: How does the Vandal Kingdom evolve?

My personal guess, is that religion becomes less of a factor. Much as would happen to the Lombards in OTL a few centuries later, the Vandal leadership was involved in a factional dispute between those who stayed loyal to the Arian faith, and those who were Catholic. This is a big deal, of course, because there were not a lot of Vandals, and their religion was one of the biggest things keeping them as a distinct entity from the Catholic population.

So, lets say that the Catholics win out (which I think they eventually would, in the absense of a major turn around), and the Vandal ruling class eventually merges in with the rest of the population. North Africa, especially Tunis, is likely called Vandalia (or Vandaland ... but I prefer Vandalia). How does this Kingdom develop over the next several centuries.

Another aspect: Language. The Vandals spoke a East Germanic language, which was close enough to be called 'Gothic' by some early historians. Now, I doubt the Vandal language would really prosper in North Africa, largely due to numbers BUT: what language developes in the region? The normal response, is that North Africa ends up speaking a Latin dialect. However, there are some reports of Punic surviving in North Africa as late as this period, which makes me wonder just how ingrained Latin really was at this point.

So, in conclusion, do we get a Vandalia which has close cultural ties to Italy and Spain, and is considered 'European', or something else entirely? I'm interested to see how people go with this.
 
If it helps you, I have read that some knights that visited North Africa during the Crusades alleged that surviving Christians spoke a Romanic language that was lost later, probably similar to the Romanic dialects spoken in al-Andalus.
 
If it helps you, I have read that some knights that visited North Africa during the Crusades alleged that surviving Christians spoke a Romanic language that was lost later, probably similar to the Romanic dialects spoken in al-Andalus.

Mozarabic language in Muslim Spain was Ibero-Romance, probably closest to Old Aragonese. IMO, North African Romance dialects in this time were more close to Sardinian and/or Southern Italian dialects.
 
Mozarabic language in Muslim Spain was Ibero-Romance, probably closest to Old Aragonese. IMO, North African Romance dialects in this time were more close to Sardinian and/or Southern Italian dialects.

That's not accurate.

Mozarabic dialects evolved directly from the Baetic dialect of Latin, which was closest to the Latin spoken in Mauretania at the end of the Roman Empire than to the Latin dialects of Northern Hispania, and certainly very distinct of Old Aragonese, which had an important Old Basque substract.

Sardinian dialects evolved in isolation, so no contact at all with North Africa. In my opinion, I guess it existed a kind of South-Western branch of colloquial Latin that encompassed North Africa (Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia), Southern Hispania and possibly Sicilia and Malta.

Latin dialects of Northern Hispania were heavily influenced by Old Basque and ancient Celtic dialects that were absent in the Southern part, which had a the time many ties with the North African coast.
 
I'd love to see African Romance survive. I'm curious how many Punic elements were present in the dialect, and whether they could survive to the present day.
 
I'd love to see African Romance survive. I'm curious how many Punic elements were present in the dialect, and whether they could survive to the present day.

I'd be facinated with this as well. Although I'm no linguist, I find the concept of alt-languages to be captivating (I just wish I had no knowledge to add to the conversation).

Now, for something else: In OTL, by this point, the Vandals had begun to fallback somewhat, due to continqued raids by Berber tribes. It strikes me as likely they might eventually be reduced (for a time) to the region of modernday Tunis. Perhaps they would be able to expand again later, but Tunis would likely serve as the heartland of any surviving Vandal state.

How will this impact the development of North Africa?
 
A fairly decent PoD for this could be a combination of more conciliatory Vandals and less conciliatory Iranians keeping Constantinople's gaze firmly fixed on the Eastern Mediterranean and the steppes. On its own, the Vandal kingdom is too weak and too close to the ERE to be able to survive a fully-formed serious Roman attack, so this needs to be precluded.

As for how Africa turns out, I'd imagine the Vandals will probably convert to Chalcedonian Orthodoxy by the later sixth century: to not do so will mean they're constantly seen as public enemy number one by the Emperors, and see above for how that's likely to turn out for them. So I'd say it's likely they'll convert by about 570 or so at the latest, and probably seek further security by trying to marry converted Vandal princesses into the Roman imperial family.

Linguistically, I think it's possible Germanic languages could become prevalent. It seems that in areas that hadn't adopted Latin/Greek as their primary language by the fourth century like Britain, Egypt and Syria, the native tongue and Latin/Greek alike would be doomed to be absorbed into the language of the foreign conqueror. So, I wonder if we might see Vandal Africa speaking a Germanic language that's heavily influenced by Latin, with some Greek influence and practically nothing from Punic, rather as English is a Germanic language heavily influenced by Latin, slightly so by Norse languages and practically not at all by Celtic. Food for thought, anyway.

The language of the elite will of course be Latin, though, barring unusual circumstances where I suppose Greek could maybe enjoy a rise to prominence as it did in Sicily. I'd say you're 90% likely to get a Latin speaking Vandal elite, 5% likely Greek, and various minuscule percentages for the likelihood of anything else.

Another thought here: the "Vandal kingdom" was always actually the "Kingdom of the Vandals and the Alans". Prior to the 420s, the Alans had been the dominant partners in the coalition, but afterward the Vandal element rose to the top after the mauling the Alans received at West Roman hands. What if Alan separatism begins to rise, perhaps encouraged by the kingdom's enemies and spurred on by the conversion away from Arianism of the Vandal monarchs?
 
This prospect has often interested me. However, the one problem is the Arabs.

I agree; hence, why I suggested that the Prophet either isn't born or finds another line of work. Cheating, a bit, I suppose; but I'd love to see how the Vandals develope without either the Byzantines or Arabs taking a swing at them.
 
A fairly decent PoD for this could be a combination of more conciliatory Vandals and less conciliatory Iranians keeping Constantinople's gaze firmly fixed on the Eastern Mediterranean and the steppes. On its own, the Vandal kingdom is too weak and too close to the ERE to be able to survive a fully-formed serious Roman attack, so this needs to be precluded.

As for how Africa turns out, I'd imagine the Vandals will probably convert to Chalcedonian Orthodoxy by the later sixth century: to not do so will mean they're constantly seen as public enemy number one by the Emperors, and see above for how that's likely to turn out for them. So I'd say it's likely they'll convert by about 570 or so at the latest, and probably seek further security by trying to marry converted Vandal princesses into the Roman imperial family.

Linguistically, I think it's possible Germanic languages could become prevalent. It seems that in areas that hadn't adopted Latin/Greek as their primary language by the fourth century like Britain, Egypt and Syria, the native tongue and Latin/Greek alike would be doomed to be absorbed into the language of the foreign conqueror. So, I wonder if we might see Vandal Africa speaking a Germanic language that's heavily influenced by Latin, with some Greek influence and practically nothing from Punic, rather as English is a Germanic language heavily influenced by Latin, slightly so by Norse languages and practically not at all by Celtic. Food for thought, anyway.

The language of the elite will of course be Latin, though, barring unusual circumstances where I suppose Greek could maybe enjoy a rise to prominence as it did in Sicily. I'd say you're 90% likely to get a Latin speaking Vandal elite, 5% likely Greek, and various minuscule percentages for the likelihood of anything else.

Another thought here: the "Vandal kingdom" was always actually the "Kingdom of the Vandals and the Alans". Prior to the 420s, the Alans had been the dominant partners in the coalition, but afterward the Vandal element rose to the top after the mauling the Alans received at West Roman hands. What if Alan separatism begins to rise, perhaps encouraged by the kingdom's enemies and spurred on by the conversion away from Arianism of the Vandal monarchs?

I like your POD; but I wonder how much the Vandals had managed to keep hold of their langauge at this point. I can't find too many sources to illuminate the problem. Obviously, if the Vandals had already begun to spread a Latin dialect, the chance of a Vandish Language surviving in North Africa is nil. However, if they had kept themselves distict enough, then there is still a chance that the people of the region may well adopt it. One of the problems is that written evidence of Vandalish is limited, and one of the few references we have, states that they spoke Gothic (perhaps indicating that the East Germanic languages had not yet developed to the point that they were distinct languages, and were more along the lines of dialects of the same tongue).
 
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