Surviving Taisho Democracy when does Korea and Taiwan gain independence

Say Taisho Democracy of Japan survives into the present day

When would it be likely for Korea and Taiwan to gain independence

Would a peaceful independence or a war of independence be likely

Would some type of personal union between the three be possible
 
Korea was treated horribly, and never accepted Japanese rule. Taiwan got a much better deal, and it's entirely possible it could stay Japanese. IMO
It partly depends on what happens to the rest of the world, especially the rest of Asia. If mainland China goes all warlord or Communist or even corrupt GMD, then Taiwan might well feel Japan is the lesser of two evils.
 
No reason to expect they would. Padania is still Italian, Scotland British, good hope still south african, etc.
Algeria is not French nor Kenya British. None of those regions you mentioned are ethnically distant and possess a separate identity .

Demographically speaking
For Taiwan alone the population at the lowest would make up 14% percent of the Japanese population counting for the lack of Chiang's mainlanders.
http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/japan-population/
http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/taiwan-population/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Taiwan#Han_Taiwanese

Throw in Korea and the non-Japanese population is now 43% of the population.
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/north-korea-population/
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/south-korea-population/
 
While semi-democratic, Taisho Japan was very imperialistic and didn't very willing to give independence to its colonies. If it continues, Korea can end up like French Algeria...

For Taiwan, I do think it's likely that it would stay Japanese
 
Yeah, Taiwan would probably end up close to being a Home Island.

Korea would probably eventually end up independent, as it's basically even a democratized Japan's Algeria.

Now the problem is the independence process. Given efforts of the Japanese to settle "excess" Japanese population in Korea and attempts to give them an economic and social ascendancy, it's gonna be bloody - think Algeria, Rhodesian Bush War and 1920s Ireland rolled into ons.
 
Algeria is not French nor Kenya British. None of those regions you mentioned are ethnically distant and possess a separate identity .

Demographically speaking
For Taiwan alone the population at the lowest would make up 14% percent of the Japanese population counting for the lack of Chiang's mainlanders.
http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/japan-population/
http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/taiwan-population/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Taiwan#Han_Taiwanese

Throw in Korea and the non-Japanese population is now 43% of the population.
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/north-korea-population/
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/south-korea-population/

Using post WWII data to do the comparsion is doing it wrongly. There was a mass deportation of Japanese resident once the ROC took over Taiwan after WWII.

The Imperial Japanese encouraged immigration and gradually restricted Chinese cultural practices in order to assimilizate the Taiwanese.

A brief research would have revealed this and allow a better informed OP.
 
Along with annexing Taiwan and taking over Korea, Japan also annexed Okinawa and Hokkaido. So it is not a far stretch to imagine that if the Taisho government continued their two-prong policy of cultural assimilation but also full democracy for 'Japanized' citizens, it could hold on to Taiwan up to the present. Korea will be a bit trickier, but I imagine the 'Korean issue' to be more focused on cultural autonomy: use of the Korean language and preservation of Korean historic sites and customs than on full-scale independence. I imagine the Koreans seeing themselves more like the French Canadians ,the Bretons in France or the Basque and Catalans in Spain. Depending how the rest of the Asian mainland, in particular China ends up, Koreans might even be proud to be a part of 'Westernized' Japan then of Communist or Warlord-ruled China
 
Unless the their Birthrate would somehow change being in Taiwan. I don't see an issue.

It is an issue when almost 6% of the population in Taiwan is Japanese and they are occupying the lucrative/ important jobs in the island. Also, you have not considered the effect of constant and consistent push for "Japanization" by the colonial government. There would be significant domestic opposition to letting Taiwan "GO " in Taiwan from the vested interest population.

Also, it would be a very different world if Taisho Democracy survives and one cannot simply said the OTL low birth rate in Japan and Taiwan would occur in TTL.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_under_Japanese_rule
As part of the colonial government's overall goal of keeping the anti-Japanese movement in check, public education became an important mechanism for facilitating both control and intercultural dialogue. While secondary education institutions were restricted mostly to Japanese nationals, the impact of compulsory primary education on the Taiwanese was immense.

Literature movements did not disappear even when they were under censorship by the colonial government-general. In the early 1930s, a famous debate on Taiwanese rural language unfolded formally. This event had numerous lasting effects on Taiwanese literature, language and racial consciousness. In 1930, Taiwanese-Japanese resident Huang Shihui started the debate on rural literature in Tokyo. He advocated that Taiwanese literature should be about Taiwan, have impact on a wide audience, and use Taiwanese Hokkien. In 1931, Koeh Chhiu-seng, a resident of Taihoku (Taipei), prominently supported Huang's viewpoint. Koeh started the Taiwanese Rural Language Debate, which advocated literature published in Taiwanese. This was immediately supported by Loa Ho who is considered as the father of Taiwanese literature. After this, dispute as to whether the literature of Taiwan should use Taiwanese or Chinese, and whether the subject matter should concern Taiwan, became the focus of the New Taiwan Literature Movement. However, because of the upcoming war and the pervasive Japanese cultural education, these debates could not develop any further. They finally lost traction under the Japanization policy set by the government.

After the Marco Polo Bridge Incident in 1937, the government of Taiwan immediately instituted "National Spirit General Mobilization", which formally commenced the Japanization policy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanization
Kobayashi was the first non-civilian governor-general since 1919. He proposed three principles of the new governance: the Kōminka movement (皇民化運動), industrialization, and making Taiwan as a base for the southward expansion.[3]

"Kōminka" literally means "to make people become subjects of the emperor". The program itself had three components. First, the "national language movement" (國語運動 kokugo undō) promoted the Japanese language by teaching Japanese instead of Taiwanese Hokkien in the schools and by banning the use of Taiwanese Hokkien in the press. Second, the "name changing program" (改姓名 kaiseimei) replaced Taiwanese's Chinese names with Japanese names. Finally, the "volunteers' system" (志願兵制度 shiganhei seidō) drafted Taiwanese subjects into the Imperial Japanese Army and encouraged them to die in service of the emperor.[4]

https://archive.org/stream/japaneseruleinf01takegoog#page/n231/mode/1up
In 1907, there were 53365 Japaneses out of a total Taiwan population of 3079692, amounts to 1.73% of the population.

https://ww2db.com/country/taiwan
In 1941, there were 365682 Japaneses out of a total Taiwan population of 3079692, amounts to 5.9% of the population.

It may be possible to incorporate Taiwan as an integral part of Japan and granting suffrage to Taiwanese and representation in Imperial Diet.
 
It is an issue when almost 6% of the population in Taiwan is Japanese and they are occupying the lucrative/ important jobs in the island.
Still doesn't solve the problem of integrating millions of Chinese.

Also, you have not considered the effect of constant and consistent push for "Japanization" by the colonial government.
Do you have anything on how successfully it was and Japanese public opinion of Taiwanese ?

Also, it would be a very different world if Taisho Democracy survives and one cannot simply said the OTL low birth rate in Japan and Taiwan would occur in TTL.
Depends if the Japanese one is higher than the Chinese one

There would be significant domestic opposition to letting Taiwan "GO " in Taiwan from the vested interest population.
If the alternative is integrating millions of Chinese, you might a large push from both left and right to get rid of the Island
 
There are some huge butterflies caused by this scenario.

The Republic of China under Chiang Kai-Shek in the late 1920s and early 1930s, before the Japanese invasion, was making significant progress and rapidly developing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nanjing_decade

If you butterfly away the Second Sino-Japanese War, and China continues to develop as it had been during this period, you will end up with a very powerful China several decades before it emerged as an economic power IOTL.

With no Japanese invasion, the Communists and their future disasters would be crushed and butterflied away. The Nationalists would also not become the corrupt organisation they later became during WWII.

This would be a giant that would overshadow Japan and would have a say about Taiwan and likely support Korean independence too.
 
I remember reading an old scenario in which Korea obtains independence.

Taisho Democracy continues and the Anglo-Japanese Alliance is renewed in 1921, on the condition that Japan leave the Chinese mainland alone. As part of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance, Japan joins the Allies during World War II and supports the United Kingdom against Germany and Italy.

The Chinese Civil War can go either way. With no Japanese Invasions of Manchuria and China, the Nationalists/Kuomintang can devote their attention and resources to defeating the Chinese Communist Party. Alternatively, the CCP could win the Chinese Civil War as OTL, due to Jiang Jieshi making too many enemies (and said enemies defecting from the KMT to the CCP.)

Following World War II, the USSR and/or PRC support Kim Il-Sung in a Communist revolution in Korea against Japanese rule. Eventually, the USSR and/or PRC directly join the war. In the scenario in which the KMT wins the Chinese Civil War, the ROC, while supporting Korean independence from Japan, but also wary of the USSR's growing influence, stays neutral and turns its attention southward, disputing with Japan over Taiwan and supporting de-colonization of French Indochina. The UK and the United States, seeing Japan as a counterweight against the USSR and/or the PRC, support Japan and the war comes to a stalemate. As part of a negotiated peace, Korea is divided as OTL to serve as a buffer between Japan, the USSR, and/or the PRC. (The US, UK, and/or the ROC pressure Japan into granting ATL's South Korea independence, while the USSR and/or PRC installs Kim Il-Sung in ATL's North Korea.)
 
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There are some huge butterflies caused by this scenario.

The Republic of China under Chiang Kai-Shek in the late 1920s and early 1930s, before the Japanese invasion, was making significant progress and rapidly developing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nanjing_decade

If you butterfly away the Second Sino-Japanese War, and China continues to develop as it had been during this period, you will end up with a very powerful China several decades before it emerged as an economic power IOTL.

With no Japanese invasion, the Communists and their future disasters would be crushed and butterflied away. The Nationalists would also not become the corrupt organisation they later became during WWII.

This would be a giant that would overshadow Japan and would have a say about Taiwan and likely support Korean independence too.

Probably even go as far as directly invade Japan and create (or recreate in their point of view) their tributary state in its own image.
 
Probably even go as far as directly invade Japan and create (or recreate in their point of view) their tributary state in its own image.
That's ASB, the nationalists were quite westernized, they wouldn't risk a war for such a symbolic and relatively unimportant thing. Japan would also maintain dominance at sea for quite some time, and it's favored by geography. A nationalist China would have more than one fish to fry, from the Tibetan issue to Mongolia and hong Kong. War is indeed a possibility, Japanese leaders have always seen Korea and the ryuku Islands as kind of a vital space to defend the main islands, but I doubt China could ever invade Japan
 
One question is part of Manchuria near Korean border, it could very well be had Korean plurality with Japanese and Chinese minority.

Taisho Korean might back continuing Japanese Empire, "if we independent, Chinese will push us to Yalu River, Paektu mountain will lost".
 
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