Surviving Ottoman Empire?

This is kind of a difficult question to ask without butchering too many butterflies, so I'll actually ask a couple of questions.

First of all, is it at all possible that the Ottoman Empire might have survived as a geopolitical entity into 2016? Let's say they remained neutral in the First World War, and in a hypothetical Second World War.

Secondly, what does the Ottoman Empire look like in 2016? Now, I know that, due to the butterfly effect, it's difficult to predict what the world will look like in a 2016 where the Ottoman Empire stayed out of European wars in the early 20th Century, but I'm genuinely curious. As best I understand it, the Ottomans were fairly decent to their minority populations, including Christians, Jews, Arabs, and so on. Is this something that would remain in place?

Would the Ottomans eventually politically liberalise and introduce more democracy? Establish autonomous entities? Lose territory to nationalism in the Middle East? Or would the oil industry's importance mean they would likely crack down on dissidents in order to maintain their monopoly, becoming more authoritarian? Would they be more like the Saudis, or less?
 

Don Quijote

Banned
This is kind of a difficult question to ask without butchering too many butterflies, so I'll actually ask a couple of questions.

First of all, is it at all possible that the Ottoman Empire might have survived as a geopolitical entity into 2016? Let's say they remained neutral in the First World War, and in a hypothetical Second World War.

Secondly, what does the Ottoman Empire look like in 2016? Now, I know that, due to the butterfly effect, it's difficult to predict what the world will look like in a 2016 where the Ottoman Empire stayed out of European wars in the early 20th Century, but I'm genuinely curious. As best I understand it, the Ottomans were fairly decent to their minority populations, including Christians, Jews, Arabs, and so on. Is this something that would remain in place?

Would the Ottomans eventually politically liberalise and introduce more democracy? Establish autonomous entities? Lose territory to nationalism in the Middle East? Or would the oil industry's importance mean they would likely crack down on dissidents in order to maintain their monopoly, becoming more authoritarian? Would they be more like the Saudis, or less?
Chances are that even if it keeps the name of 'Ottoman Empire', its territory won't be significantly larger than that of modern Turkey.

Regarding the first bolded sentence, the Armenians would beg to differ. The war may have brought the events forward, but the genocide probably still takes place, which means Armenia is going to try to get out. Given their location in the country, the OE's relationship with Russia/USSR will be interesting, if Russia/USSR back the Armenians, with the latter probably hoping to form an autonomous Armenian SSR. However no Ottoman threat during WW1 will mess things up a lot in the Russian controlled Caucasus, but I think the Russian Revolution will still take place and succeed. Would this OE be willing to take part in an anti-Bolshevik intervention?

The second bolded part will also still happen, but on a smaller scale. Saudi Arabia, or a large part of it, will still try to break away at some point, maybe taking advantage of the Ottomans (potentially) being bogged down in a war with Bolsheviks or Armenians. Closer to home, Syria and Lebanon can possibly be held onto for longer, while Iraq may end up falling under increasing influence from Persia, which in turn will no doubt be under some form of British influence. Israel is interesting, but it's hard to say if it will gain independence sooner or later than OTL. Provided the Ottomans don't block large scale Jewish settlement, it may break away early, but like OTL come under pressure from its neighbours, particularly Saudi Arabia and Egypt, but again this is very dependent on whether Britain is still in de facto control over these states, or they are fully independent.

I can see a long term Ottoman state surviving, consisting of OTL Turkey (minus some Armenian territory?), Syria, Lebanon and considerably more of the Aegean Islands. Iraq is possible, but I have a feeling it would be broken up between Persia, an autonomous Kurdish region of the Ottomans, and a rump Sunni state under British control until the mid 20th century.


That was a bit disjointed, but hopefully it was of some use. :)
 
As best I understand it, the Ottomans were fairly decent to their minority populations, including Christians, Jews, Arabs, and so on. Is this something that would remain in place?

That was semi-true during the Ottoman Empire's peak, only occasionally true during its decline, and not at all true by the early 20th century.

It depends on the PoD. But if it's in 1914, then the Christian population is on its way out. The Ottoman authorities were already working to eliminate them and many were expelled already.

The Jews will probably not suffer that kind of repression. Although, if the USSR is still created, Jews may be scapegoated for socialism and other dissent and mistreated on that basis (how much? I'm not sure).

The Arabs still have a place in the Empire's pan-Islamic ideology, even if it will be a place increasingly subordinate to that of the Turks. Things could get ugly later, but not necessarily.

The surviving Ottoman Empire as ruled by the CUP will be a military dictatorship with a puppet Sultan/Caliph. It will be militarist; Islamist (still much more secular than OTL's Saudis); with a blend of Turkish nationalism and pan-Islamic identity as the state ideology. Economically conservative, with a view towards building up a "national" (and/or Islamic) middle class rather than addressing inequality and corporatist tendencies. It may or may not be a one-party state.

So basically, the Ottoman government will be many similarities to OTL's interwar fascism and the radical right (especially the French versions). Maybe it could be described as some combination of Franco's Spain (or Mussolini's Italy?) and a less secular Ataturk's Turkey.

All this accounts for the first decade or few decades. In time, the Ottomans may liberalize, but that depends on external factors almost as much as on internal ones.
 
Very interesting posts. I will admit (shamefully) that I completely forgot about the Armenian Genocide.

So either we're looking at an Ottoman Empire that slowly breaks apart due to ethnic/religious nationalism (Arabs for the former, Christians/possibly Jews for the latter), or one that stays together but remains heavily authoritarian.

Frankly I don't think Jewish nationalism (/Zionism) would be as intense without the Holocaust, which assuming WWI goes differently would be butterflied away (and of course, without the Palestinian Mandate).

I do wonder what would become of the Arabian Desert, though; in 1914 most of it was still run by nomads with no central government, until the Saudis were set up with the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. Do you think the borders would be redrawn therein?
 
I'd say it is possible for the OE to survive. It is definitely in for an interesting century.

If the reason for its survival is that they don't enter WW1, then Arab nationalism certainly isn't a problem in the short run and they have a good chance at making gains at the expense of the British during the post-WW1 period.

If Russia has still had a revolution, the OE could also regain some ground against the Russians. However, I am one of those who think it is very unlikely that Russia would have a successful revolution if the OE had stayed neutral. As such, I think Russia would have likely emerged as a Constitutional Monarchy after WW1 and had a seat at the Versailles peace conference.

In the longer run, the Empire might be able to tap into Arab nationalism and offer itself as a champion to the colonized Arab peoples. That might either result in a nasty war with Britain and France or it might result in the OE leading this world's Arab League.

However, going from the experience of other countries with similar levels of economic development (and similar pools of educated manpower), the OE is going to experience plenty of turbulence. Going from this, literacy in the Arabic-based script before WW1 in the OE was somewhere between 30-50% - so comparable to Spain, Italy or Japan. None of those are countries famous for having calm histories over the 20th Century.

As such, the OE could do very well, and be one of the major world powers by the modern day. Or the OE could have civil wars, imperialist wars and generally make a mess of itself.

fasquardon
 
Hello everyone, just registered to the forum. It's an interesting topic I've been thinking about sometimes.

I think it wouldn't be much different than today's Turkey, maybe less secular.

Regarding minorities:

- It would still have a large Greek minority, since population exchange in 1922 likely wouldn't have happened.
- Even if Armenia did become independent, it would have a bigger Armenian population than modern Turkey.
- There would likely be a big European (Levantine) minority too.
- If WW2 still happened, I think OE would be more willing to take Jewish refugees than Turkish Republic was.
- I don't think Arab nationalism would be much of an issue in the future because by 1915, OE had already lost most of its Arabic territory.
 
- It would still have a large Greek minority, since population exchange in 1922 likely wouldn't have happened.
- Even if Armenia did become independent, it would have a bigger Armenian population than modern Turkey.
- There would likely be a big European (Levantine) minority too.
- If WW2 still happened, I think OE would be more willing to take Jewish refugees than Turkish Republic was.
- I don't think Arab nationalism would be much of an issue in the future because by 1915, OE had already lost most of its Arabic territory.

Welcome to the forum!

And that's a good point - the OE could survive through Ataturk's revolution failing.

Why do you think the OE would be willing to allow more Jewish refugees? I confess, I'm not familiar with the Turkish republic's policies on this, so curious what it was and why the OE surviving would change it.

fasquardon
 
I'd say it is possible for the OE to survive. It is definitely in for an interesting century.

If the reason for its survival is that they don't enter WW1, then Arab nationalism certainly isn't a problem in the short run and they have a good chance at making gains at the expense of the British during the post-WW1 period.

If Russia has still had a revolution, the OE could also regain some ground against the Russians. However, I am one of those who think it is very unlikely that Russia would have a successful revolution if the OE had stayed neutral. As such, I think Russia would have likely emerged as a Constitutional Monarchy after WW1 and had a seat at the Versailles peace conference.

In the longer run, the Empire might be able to tap into Arab nationalism and offer itself as a champion to the colonized Arab peoples. That might either result in a nasty war with Britain and France or it might result in the OE leading this world's Arab League.

However, going from the experience of other countries with similar levels of economic development (and similar pools of educated manpower), the OE is going to experience plenty of turbulence. Going from this, literacy in the Arabic-based script before WW1 in the OE was somewhere between 30-50% - so comparable to Spain, Italy or Japan. None of those are countries famous for having calm histories over the 20th Century.

As such, the OE could do very well, and be one of the major world powers by the modern day. Or the OE could have civil wars, imperialist wars and generally make a mess of itself.

fasquardon
The OE in this scenario, would probably do a a lot in the Non-aligned movement, being a "champion" for arabs under western rule, and staunchly anti-communist.
 
I'd say it is possible for the OE to survive. It is definitely in for an interesting century.

If the reason for its survival is that they don't enter WW1, then Arab nationalism certainly isn't a problem in the short run and they have a good chance at making gains at the expense of the British during the post-WW1 period.

I'm not so sure. If they do survive they're still plagued by internal problems, poor economies, and bad infrastructure south of Turkey. That seems like a situation ripe for the British to support some independence movements, especially with the turbulence that modernizing is going to cause. It was rough enough in Turkey proper, what level of unrest is modernization going to cause in areas that are not ethnically Turkish and are remote from Constantinople, especially when fanned by foreign powers.

I think survival is not unlikely but I agree the posts above that a map of the Empire would probably end up looking similar to our Turkey.
 
I'm not so sure. If they do survive they're still plagued by internal problems, poor economies, and bad infrastructure south of Turkey. That seems like a situation ripe for the British to support some independence movements, especially with the turbulence that modernizing is going to cause. It was rough enough in Turkey proper, what level of unrest is modernization going to cause in areas that are not ethnically Turkish and are remote from Constantinople, especially when fanned by foreign powers.

The British were absolutely shattered by WW1. In many ways, WW1 was the war that broke Britain's empire, not WW2 (though WW2 certainly eliminated any chances for a recovery of Britain as an Imperial power). If WW1 happens, I don't see Britain being able to pull apart the Ottomans.

As for the Ottoman problems - yes, for sure - but everyone else at the same development level have the same sorts of problems. They aren't necessarily fatal.

Even after WW1, Turkey had a chance at retaining Syria and Northern Iraq. Given how bad the situation was for Turkey OTL, I'd say that means that even if the Arabs do rebel at some point in a WW1-less TL, the OE has a decent chance of being bigger than OTL Turkey.

Of course, it could end up smaller too.

fasquardon
 
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