Surviving Ottoman Empire in WW2

Suppose that the Ottomans wisely remain neutral in WW1 although they do close the straits for the Allies. Germany loses and something like Versailles is imposed on them while Russia is torn apart in civil strife and communist revolution.

Hitler survives in spite of butterflies. Lets suppose that he still gets into politics and the rise of fascism is more or less the same in the 20s and 30s as in OTL. I see an Ottoman Empire becoming more liberal as opposed to the militant Islam that partly rose after its disintegration. Lets assume they strike oil in Iraq in the late 20s/early 30s and use it to modernize and strengthen their state. I'm assuming Ottoman intervention won't change the overall outcome of the RCW even if they take Azerbaijan except maybe the Soviets drilling for oil in Turkmenistan earlier.

What would the Ottomans do in WW2. This state will be quite liberal and might not take a liking to fascist Italy which will likely have designs on the Ottoman Empire. OTOH they have a communist giant to their north which seeks to control the Straits. Will they remain neutral? If not, will they go Axis or Allies?

EDIT: feel free to discuss the aftermath of this alternate WW2.
 
OK, so they drop it under allies pressure. Germany still loses and Russia loses less bad but still enough for a revolution. Then what?
 
OK, so they drop it under allies pressure. Germany still loses and Russia loses less bad but still enough for a revolution. Then what?

If Russia loses less badly (the improved supply situation keeps them in the war longer so they don't collapse until, say, well into 1918) there's a good chance you get a White or SR or Menshevik government rather than the Communist one we got OTL.

If you want a situation like OTL, with both the USSR and Nazi Germany, maybe you should have neutral Ottomans. The Germans, to strangulate Russia, sieze the straits with the aid of Bulgaria [1], and the Ottomans end up on the allied side after their government flees to Anatolia. Russia is still cut off, and I don't think Germany and Austria will go down any faster than OTL due to the addition of an early Balkan front, although the Germans may concentrate on the east more than OTL.

Bruce

[1] Tsar Ferdinand of Bulgaria had a bit of a hard-on for Constantinople: kept a set of mocked-up Byzantine Imperial regalia in his bedroom, IIRC
 
I read a Article [20~30?] years ago in one of the Political Magazines [Economist???] that analyzed Turkey's Quietness on the international stage 1920's - 1970's.
It predicted a much more independent, assertive policy going forward. As the last of the GW generation died off and Turkey finally emerged from the last of the post GW traumas.

ITTL I see a Ottoman Influence in the Trans Caspian, Turkish areas, during the Russian Civil War. It is possible that that Turkestan, Uzbekistan, etc are part of the Ottoman sphere of Influence, and not part of the USSR.

With no GW Traumas, and a solid oil stream from the Mesopotamian and Arabic oil Fields, I see this OE as more willing to push on the International stage.
As Caliph It will see itself as the Protector of Islam, and will be willing to back that up Diplomatically and maybe Militarily.
 
I read a Article [20~30?] years ago in one of the Political Magazines [Economist???] that analyzed Turkey's Quietness on the international stage 1920's - 1970's.
It predicted a much more independent, assertive policy going forward. As the last of the GW generation died off and Turkey finally emerged from the last of the post GW traumas.

ITTL I see a Ottoman Influence in the Trans Caspian, Turkish areas, during the Russian Civil War. It is possible that that Turkestan, Uzbekistan, etc are part of the Ottoman sphere of Influence, and not part of the USSR..

I suspect that due to difficulty in communications (either across the Caspian or overland through Persia) and general war-weariness if we use my scenario, the Soviets will win out in central Asia, but it will probably take longer. Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, however, will be in the Turk's front yard, and probably remain independent, due to Soviet weakness in the 20s and worries about Hitler in the 30's. (Turkish Azerbaijan may be incorporated into the Empire: perhaps there is a territorial swap with Iran to get a connecting strip, unless they just decide to displace Armenians).

The Soviets will be hampered in their development due to a lack of Baku oil: one wonders if SOVIET SCIENCE! is up to the task of exploiting Siberian oil earlier than OTL.

With no GW Traumas, and a solid oil stream from the Mesopotamian and Arabic oil Fields, I see this OE as more willing to push on the International stage.
As Caliph It will see itself as the Protector of Islam, and will be willing to back that up Diplomatically and maybe Militarily.

Well, it's the Young Turks which will be in charge, with the Caliph as a most symbolic person, although I wouldn't be surprised if he wasn't used for propaganda purposes. Much depends on whether the leadership can maintain the Islamic, non-national nature of the empire or perhaps move to a successful federal format: if the hardcore Turkish nationalists win out and it becomes a clearly "Turkish" empire, expect increasing problems from the Arabs.

Some problems may arise in the Persian Gulf area, where the oil fields stretch between Ottoman-influenced and British-influenced areas, and there will be increasingly sharp arguments as to where the borders are to lie - not to mention the wild card of the House of Saud.

Bruce
 
Some problems may arise in the Persian Gulf area, where the oil fields stretch between Ottoman-influenced and British-influenced areas, and there will be increasingly sharp arguments as to where the borders are to lie - not to mention the wild card of the House of Saud.
On the matter of oil at least in modern day Iraq, the company would still have a German government shareholding. Maybe they could use revenue from that to help pay off their reparations.

The wild card of the House of Saud would almost certainly trigger a war between his Bedouin and the Ottomans if only because the latter are holding Mecca and Medina. Whilst it is unlikely that the Ottomans couldget a knockout they could very well occupy the coast with the oil fields in it to their advantage.
 
Along with knocking out saud and possibly gaining more land from OTL Saudi Arabia I can imagine an oil market war between the Ottomans and Iranian states, Ottomans likely backed by selling oil to Britain, France and the USA and Iran backed by USSR perhaps.
 
German stuff...

On the matter of oil at least in modern day Iraq, the company would still have a German government shareholding. Maybe they could use revenue from that to help pay off their reparations.

The German holdings would, IMVHO, be GONE after Versailles. They would be seized at war's end by the victorious powers, or simply nationalized by the Ottoman Empire. Germany might or might not get value for them....but I can't see tha allies tollerating Germany having that big a supply of oil.
 
The German holdings would, IMVHO, be GONE after Versailles. They would be seized at war's end by the victorious powers, or simply nationalized by the Ottoman Empire. Germany might or might not get value for them....but I can't see tha allies tollerating Germany having that big a supply of oil.
I disagree with this. On OTL they were seized by Britain and France because they controlled the region. On this AH they don't so unless they go to war with the Ottoman Empire they can't. In addition, if the Ottoman Empire does nationalise the German holding in the company they could nationalise the British one as well. That would probably lead to the Persian government nationalise the Anglo-Persion oil fields.
 
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