Surviving Jews in Nazi Europe - how long can they last?

[Ryker of Terra]

I'm not sure why, but I've always been fascinated by remnants - both remnant populations of ethnic/linguistic/religious groups, as well as remnants of 'resistance' that continue for longer than they would be expected to, like the post-WWII Japanese holdouts for example.

However, in this thread I'd like to explore a hypothetical example that's kind of a mix of the two - specifically surviving Jews in Nazi Europe. A while back I was reading the Wikipedia page about Holocaust survivors. Several different types of them were distinguished:

1) Refugees. These are the ones who managed to escape beyond Nazi reach - whether to neutral countries in Europe, the Soviet interior, or elsewhere. They comprised the vast majority of the survivors.​

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2) Concentration camp survivors. The ones that got caught in the KZ system, but managed to live through it all to the end.​

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3) Others. These can be divided into:​

a) What I'll call the 'lucky unlucky ones'. They were in territory under Nazi control or influence and bound for deportation, but survived due to external circumstances (for example, see Hungary);​

b) The hidden ones. They were in Nazi territory too, like the above, but were in hiding. This is the group that interests me the most, I'll talk about it later.​

This is how things stood IOTL with the Axis defeated. If they win though, things change drastically. Let's assume the typical Axis Victory scenario - the Third Reich manages to get an armistice on the English Channel and beat the Soviets. The Nazis would then be able to direct their main focus to the Final Solution (and Generalplan Ost too) and would carry it out to its conclusion - killing every undesirable they can get their hands on, with the Jewish people at the very top of that list. And herein lies my interest - just how many Jews will remain in Nazi Europe? Taking a look at the categories laid out above, we can immediately make some reasonable assumptions:

There will be no concentration camp survivors. In general, the Jews the Reich already has - those in the camps, or living in Nazi-occupied territory like Norway - will be the first to go. Axis countries that could afford to resist Nazi demands during the war will no longer have that luxury and will be pressured (under threat of economic sanctions and/or outright invasion) to give up their Jews. Thus, the 'lucky unlucky ones' will be gone ITTL, though a handful might get the chance to run. Finland might get its Jews into Sweden like Denmark did. Bulgaria might do the same to Turkey, but maybe not. The only Axis country that might say no without severe consequences is Italy, and even then they might just 'encourage' their Jews to emigrate, to stop the nagging from Berlin if nothing else.​

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That leaves the neutrals and countries that aren't under Nazi control/influence. I'm personally of the belief that Hitler would invade Switzerland as planned, even though it would be smarter not to (because he's Hitler), so the Jews there are toast. Sweden will also be forced to give in - it's surrounded on all sides and no help will be forthcoming. The Iberians will have more leeway - more isolated from the Nazis and easier for the WAllies to rush in in case of invasion, same with Turkey. UK, Ireland, Iceland and the Faroes are safe because of the Royal Navy.​

That leaves the hidden Jews. I see three different types here: those that can pass for gentile and have false papers to live in public; those hiding with the help of rescuers in attics, hidden compartments and such (like the Frank family did); and those hiding out away from civilization (forests and the like). There seems to be a consensus on this forum that the Nazis will collapse just like the Soviets did, and probably even sooner. IOTL the hidden Jews numbered only a few thousand, so there will be even less than that here, but realistically, how many of these hidden Jews will survive until the end of the Reich?

 

[The Tai-Pan]

Well, it depends on how long the Nazi Reich lasts, yes? A decade, a generation, a century?

 

[athgtq16129]

Perhaps you already know about this novel, but Harry Turtledove's In the Presence of Mine Enemies is exactly about this topic of hidden Jews trying to live in a victorious Nazi Germany in the year of 2010.

 

[Ryker of Terra]

Well, it depends on how long the Nazi Reich lasts, yes? A decade, a generation, a century?

In the threads I've read, people were convinced it would occur sooner than the Soviet collapse did, so let's say 1980 or so. That's like a generation and a half.

Perhaps you already know about this novel, but Harry Turtledove's In the Presence of Mine Enemies is exactly about this topic of hidden Jews trying to live in a victorious Nazi Germany in the year of 2010.

Yup, I know it! An interesting look from the perspective of a remnant.

 

[The Tai-Pan]

I think, given

A. The size and urbanization of Europe
B. That length of time
C. The thoroughness and fanaticism of the Nazis

the Jewish remnant would be negliable and the next generation would be so hidden as to not be Jewish except in family history.

 

[Ryker of Terra]

I originally wanted to include the Romani in this scenario too. If I had to guess, the Roma would do way worse in most aspects than the Jews. There were only about 2 million of them in Europe before the war to begin with, compared to the Jewish population of ~11 million, so wiping them out would be quicker. I'm also under the impression that Roma would be easier to notice, both in terms of physical appearance and how many of them lead non-sedentary lifestyles. Their only saving grace would be that the Jewish people would be given priority by the Nazis - if the Nazis see that the Axis countries or neutrals are reluctant to hand over Jews and Roma, they may give up the Roma issue.

 

[brokenrobot00]

My thought is that Jewish people in hiding won't stay in hiding forever. Either their remote location is found at some point and the authorities come to round them up or they wait long enough where they're forgotten about and use that chance to escape to a neutral country and relative safety. Even Jewish People who can pass as Aryan or some other ethnicity that is not persecuted will probably flee at some point out of paranoia. In that scenario they've either created or stolen an identity and might just be able to take a vacation and never return. The few remaining hidden Jews in Nazi Europe will try and lay low and blend in as their survival depends on it. You'd never admit your heritage aloud to another person and likely never tell your children about it either so the secret dies with you and they don't have to carry the burden.

 

[Sekhmet_D]

The few remaining hidden Jews in Nazi Europe will try and lay low and blend in as their survival depends on it. You'd never admit your heritage aloud to another person and likely never tell your children about it either so the secret dies with you and they don't have to carry the burden.

Pretty tragic, having to voluntarily erase your religious and cultural heritage in the name of survival.

One wonders if Jews who passed for Aryans and adopted Gentile aliases would have gone so far as to use intermarriage with unsuspecting Gentiles as a 'necessary evil' survival mechanism not just for themselves, but also for their children and other descendants.

 

[Retro_Reaction]

The relationship that Germany will have with Hungary, Romania and Italy, is closer to the relationship that the USSR had with Yugoslavia than Poland or Communist Hungary/Romania. Essentially, the leaders of these countries had well established power blocs independent of support with Nazi Germany in order to cement their power. So the fate of the Jews essentially rests with the internal power dynamics of the German Euro Bloc. Is Antonescu overthrown in a coup d'etat after the war ends because of losing transylvania, is the new government well supported, or is Romania invaded a la Czechoslovakia in 68, with the government now being yes men to Nazi Germany, reliant on the backing of German SS Panzer divisions to prevent another coup and maintain order in case of a general mutiny? The fate of surviving Jews in Europe is essentially up to the writer of the alternate history and how they want power struggles to unfold.

 

[hwyl]

Well, the 2000 Finnish Jews were not in hiding but functioning as normal citizens with full civil rights - many of them in the Finnish Army (and in several cases receiving the Iron Cross from the Germans - I believe all refused it). But in a Europe controlled by triumphant Germany? Who knows how long they would have stayed free and alive. Grim subject.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Some Jews may survive under false identity, distinguished as Germans, until their natural deaths.

 

[Ryker of Terra]

The relationship that Germany will have with Hungary, Romania and Italy, is closer to the relationship that the USSR had with Yugoslavia than Poland or Communist Hungary/Romania. Essentially, the leaders of these countries had well established power blocs independent of support with Nazi Germany in order to cement their power. So the fate of the Jews essentially rests with the internal power dynamics of the German Euro Bloc. Is Antonescu overthrown in a coup d'etat after the war ends because of losing transylvania, is the new government well supported, or is Romania invaded a la Czechoslovakia in 68, with the government now being yes men to Nazi Germany, reliant on the backing of German SS Panzer divisions to prevent another coup and maintain order in case of a general mutiny? The fate of surviving Jews in Europe is essentially up to the writer of the alternate history and how they want power struggles to unfold.

Well, IOTL those countries only barely avoided giving up their Jews. Berlin was good at divide and rule like that, take a look at what they did to Romania for example. Bessarabia, Transsylvania and Southern Dobruja were given up without a shot fired, all because of German insistence, only for Romania to join the Axis anyway in hopes of getting at least some of that territory back - and avoid getting invaded, presumably. And all this happened while the Germans were at war with the West!

An Axis Victory Third Reich will be undisputed top dog on the continent. They might dangle the prospect of territory or some sort of economic concessions in exchange for the Jews, but keep in mind that the Nazis are all about power and domination. Any requests they make of their junior partners will come with the implicit threat of what happens if they fail to deliver. The Soviets had to at least pretend that the Warsaw Pact countries were independent, and even then, when they stepped too far out of line for Moscow's liking, they were corralled back in (like Hungary). The Nazis on their Endsieg high won't tolerate dissent on the Jewish question.

 

[Ryker of Terra]

My thought is that Jewish people in hiding won't stay in hiding forever. Either their remote location is found at some point and the authorities come to round them up or they wait long enough where they're forgotten about and use that chance to escape to a neutral country and relative safety. Even Jewish People who can pass as Aryan or some other ethnicity that is not persecuted will probably flee at some point out of paranoia. In that scenario they've either created or stolen an identity and might just be able to take a vacation and never return.

This makes the most sense.

One wonders if Jews who passed for Aryans and adopted Gentile aliases would have gone so far as to use intermarriage with unsuspecting Gentiles as a 'necessary evil' survival mechanism not just for themselves, but also for their children and other descendants.

The few remaining hidden Jews in Nazi Europe will try and lay low and blend in as their survival depends on it. You'd never admit your heritage aloud to another person and likely never tell your children about it either so the secret dies with you and they don't have to carry the burden.

Some Jews may survive under false identity, distinguished as Germans, until their natural deaths.

I imagine they probably would. In the Presence of Mine Enemies is an interesting book, but passing on knowledge of Jewish heritage (to ten year olds, no less) would be far too dangerous. Every Jew would guard that secret zealously, and probably take it to their graves.

What about the rest though? How many Jews hiding in attics or the wilderness will survive?

 

[Aisha Clan-Clan]

Once they've gotten at least a reasonably stable ceasefire/armistice why wouldn't they just deport them across the english channel to the UK or across the volga/urals depending on final border to the USSR? You get rid of from the nazi POV internal enemies while burdening either the brits or soviets with unwanted jews/poles. That honestly seems more realistic to me.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Once they've gotten at least a reasonably stable ceasefire/armistice why wouldn't they just deport them across the english channel to the UK or across the volga/urals depending on final border to the USSR? You get rid of from the nazi POV internal enemies while burdening either the brits or soviets with unwanted jews/poles. That honestly seems more realistic to me.

Nazis wanted all Jews in the world dead, even these in Japan, so they'd no longer plot against Aryans. That was their logic. They won't let Jews escape

 

[RedSword12]

I think it's complicated. Axis allies like Italy, Finland, and Hungary, could probably protect a fair portion of their Jewish populations, if they wanted to. The most likely Jews to survive would be those in Italy and Finland, I think, since they were comparatively independent and had a strong political incentive to assert their sovereignty. As much as Hitler hated the Jews, he was mindful of political and economic concerns as well. It's pretty unlikely the Reich would invade its allies merely over the presence of Jews, given that it would have its hands full occupying the east. On the other hand, some regimes would be willing to hand over Jews in return for economic benefits. Others would murder their Jewish populations on their own initiative, e.g., the Ustaše.

 

[Aisha Clan-Clan]

Nazis wanted all Jews in the world dead, even these in Japan, so they'd no longer plot against Aryans. That was their logic. They won't let Jews escape

Deporting them to the UK/USSR and planning to leave them for the next war, whenever that is isn't incompatible with that. They'll have accomplished their initial goal of getting continental europe judenfrei and the world can wait until next time.

The fact the next war might not ever actually come and the reich collapses sometime in the future wouldn't have to occur to them, of course.

 

[Ryker of Terra]

Once they've gotten at least a reasonably stable ceasefire/armistice why wouldn't they just deport them across the english channel to the UK or across the volga/urals depending on final border to the USSR? You get rid of from the nazi POV internal enemies while burdening either the brits or soviets with unwanted jews/poles. That honestly seems more realistic to me.

Nazis wanted all Jews in the world dead, even these in Japan, so they'd no longer plot against Aryans. That was their logic. They won't let Jews escape

Hitler was shown to have pragmatism in some cases, but not in others. I personally think they wouldn't compromise and deport them once the exterminations started. IOTL even as the war was going down the shitter and the Reich should have put all their focus on the war effort, you still had deportations. Hundreds of trains transported the Hungarian Jews to their death for almost two months, even though the Red Army was fast approaching.

 

[RedSword12]

Hitler was shown to have pragmatism in some cases, but not in others. I personally think they wouldn't compromise and deport them once the exterminations started. IOTL even as the war was going down the shitter and the Reich should have put all their focus on the war effort, you still had deportations. Hundreds of trains transported the Hungarian Jews to their death for almost two months, even though the Red Army was fast approaching.

It is worth noting that the bulk of Hungarian Jews survived until Germany occupied Hungary to prevent defection. Exterminating the local Jewish population was part of German occupation, not the reason for it. Some countries more than others were capable of saying no on certain matters, and Hitler never invaded a country merely in order to kill the Jews in it. Hitler's stronger allies could protect their Jews if they wanted to, and Hitler would probably leave them be, at least when it comes to military occupation.

 

[Ryker of Terra]

It is worth noting that the bulk of Hungarian Jews survived until Germany occupied Hungary to prevent defection. Exterminating the local Jewish population was part of German occupation, not the reason for it. Some countries more than others were capable of saying no on certain matters, and Hitler never invaded a country merely in order to kill the Jews in it. Hitler's stronger allies could protect their Jews if they wanted to, and Hitler would probably leave them be, at least when it comes to military occupation.

That's true, I should have pointed that out. But my point is that there were still deportations going on that late in the war, even though they could have focused on more pragmatic things, used all those trains to ship supplies to the front or something. This makes it clear that extermination was important for the Nazi regime, and I can only imagine that they would do worse without their hands tied up in fighting the world's superpowers.