Surviving Japanese Empire with a divided US

Let's say in a scenario akin to TL-191, where the the CSA wins the American Civil War and the US is permanently divided half (so unlike TL 191, the CSA is not reabsorbed into the US at a much later date). Japan, like OTL and in TL 191, builds it's empire anyways roughly along the borders of its OTL maximum extent in WWII. In this scenario, with the US not an existential threat to the Japanese Empire, how would the Japanese empire fare? Would it be bogged down in a perpetual war in China? Would it eventually become a pacific Superpower? And would it be able to invade Australia, either during its war of conquest or decades afters it's initial conquest war when it would've consolidated its gains elsewhere.
 
Possibly the Japanese could have purchased Alaska from the Russian Empire giving them a further chunk of territory to rule .
Or the northern united states could without a southern half become a much more centralised and authoritarian nation than OTL .Maybe Lincoln manages to further expand his power and creates something akin to a Lord Protector ship .

As a further idea maybe the United States after it`s defeat in the great southern rebelion expands into British North America ,putting them into conflict with the British .And when WWI rolls along they side with the Central powers while the C.S.A sides with the British and manages to take Kentucky and Missouri from the north ,while Britain gets back whatever the U.S managed to steal from them since the rebellion in the 1860`s .After the war the U.S decides to expand into the Pacific ,putting them into conflict with the Japanese empire in something like OTL WWII only without other powers at first .
 
Possibly the Japanese could have purchased Alaska from the Russian Empire giving them a further chunk of territory to rule .
Or the northern united states could without a southern half become a much more centralised and authoritarian nation than OTL .Maybe Lincoln manages to further expand his power and creates something akin to a Lord Protector ship .

As a further idea maybe the United States after it`s defeat in the great southern rebelion expands into British North America ,putting them into conflict with the British .And when WWI rolls along they side with the Central powers while the C.S.A sides with the British and manages to take Kentucky and Missouri from the north ,while Britain gets back whatever the U.S managed to steal from them since the rebellion in the 1860`s .After the war the U.S decides to expand into the Pacific ,putting them into conflict with the Japanese empire in something like OTL WWII only without other powers at first .

In Turtledove's TL191, the Conflict between Japan and the US was a stalemate because the CSA was a threat to the US so the US could never devote all its force into the Pacific. Assume that is the case ITTL. The CSA is hostile to the US even in peacetime so the US must always need to watch its back at home.
 
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Of course they wont send all their forces to fight Japan if they have a major enemy right next door .But they might expand into the Pacific as a way of countering the threat posed by the CSA .Lets face it ,without Virginia and Texas what would the USA really be :p
 
The Soviets will use insurgents to take out what hold the Japanese have over Asia gradually over time. Imagine a Japanese war in Vietnam a hundred fold across southeast Asia.
 
The Soviets will use insurgents to take out what hold the Japanese have over Asia gradually over time. Imagine a Japanese war in Vietnam a hundred fold across southeast Asia.

Any chance the Japan and its "Co-Prosperity Sphere" become a superpower for at least a few decades? Perhaps if you butterfly away any strong Russian nation and have the UK/France weakened after losing to imperial Germany in major war(s).

Also any thoughts of whether this great power Japan can eventually invade Australia, so maybe by TTL's late 20th century? I just watched the movie https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tomorrow,_When_the_War_Began_(film) and I wonder if an invasion of Australia by a great power Japanese Empire is plausible at all, given a POD the CSA winning the Civil War.
 
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The Soviets will use insurgents to take out what hold the Japanese have over Asia gradually over time. Imagine a Japanese war in Vietnam a hundred fold across southeast Asia.

Assuming the Soviets exist in such a TL...

With a divided America and with a weakened Russia, Japan would be virtually unassailable. I could see such a Japan lasting until today as a superpower.
 
No America in the Philippines has huge ramifications in the Pacific. Does Germany buy the Philippines or do they break away from Spain on their own? If the Japanese grab them from Spain then there probably isn't a Russo-Japanese War because of the inevitable revolt against Japanese rule. If Japan conquers them from Germany in the Great War then Japan has a pretty powerful economic base in which to dominate/conquer Asia if a war breaks out. With out America in the far Pacific there might not even be a war, just Japan consolidating power over the region over time.
 
No America in the Philippines has huge ramifications in the Pacific. Does Germany buy the Philippines or do they break away from Spain on their own? If the Japanese grab them from Spain then there probably isn't a Russo-Japanese War because of the inevitable revolt against Japanese rule. If Japan conquers them from Germany in the Great War then Japan has a pretty powerful economic base in which to dominate/conquer Asia if a war breaks out. With out America in the far Pacific there might not even be a war, just Japan consolidating power over the region over time.

Totally depends when Philippines goes full scale rebellion and the ramifications of an earlier full scale rebellion in the timeline,

A loyal local populace means Germany has no chance of taking the colonies. Vs Japan it would be a stalemate.
 
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