Surviving Japanese Empire sphere of influence

Say Japan wins in China and doesn't fight in world war 2

What countries could it bring into its sphere of influence
 
Well we need a little more information, like how Japan avoided WW2, its oil shortages, the outcome of TTL WW2, and many other things to really allow us to give a good answer.
 
What does "win" mean? Not attacking France allows western aid to reach China through Vietnam. Don't forget that, the Japanese army leadership only wanted a three month punitive strike that ends with an occupation of Shanghai, Tianjin, and Beiping, by which time Chiang would agree to form a more pro-Japanese government. It was not their intention to escalate the war further. The invasion of French Indochina was a desperate measure to stop the supplies of western aid.
 
I'm pretty sure the US offered a peace deal at one point that was basically a white peace + recognition of Manchukuo.

The best I could see the Japanese getting is recognition of Manchukuo, an internationalization of Shanghai, and a withdrawal from mainland China (Hainan ultimately becoming an open question as to whether it counts as mainland China).
 
I'm pretty sure the US offered a peace deal at one point that was basically a white peace + recognition of Manchukuo.

The best I could see the Japanese getting is recognition of Manchukuo, an internationalization of Shanghai, and a withdrawal from mainland China (Hainan ultimately becoming an open question as to whether it counts as mainland China).
That would be a net loss for Japan, since Manchukuo already existed as an entity, Shanghai was already internationalized, and they would have to withdraw their troops from the rest of China, which would remove the source of leverage they had already been using for decades. It would definitely provoke another coup, and we'll be at war again.
 
I'm pretty sure the US offered a peace deal at one point that was basically a white peace + recognition of Manchukuo.

The best I could see the Japanese getting is recognition of Manchukuo, an internationalization of Shanghai, and a withdrawal from mainland China (Hainan ultimately becoming an open question as to whether it counts as mainland China).
What would the Borders of this Manchukuo look like?

It would definitely provoke another coup, and we'll be at war again.
A coup against the Japanese Parliament or the Emperor? We could see a Japanese civil war then, not another war. Remember a military is not a monolithic bloc, the army and navy could be fighting on different sides.
 
What would the Borders of this Manchukuo look like?
Manchukuo had a clear southern border - the Great Wall. South of that, the Japanese formed "autonomous governments" that flew the ROC flag and hung Sun Yat Sen portraits.

A coup against the Japanese Parliament or the Emperor? We could see a Japanese civil war then, not another war. Remember a military is not a monolithic bloc, the army and navy could be fighting on different sides.
By now, all peace attempts by the civilian government in Tokyo were simply ignored - and twice triggered coup attempts. So many pro-peace government ministers were assassinated that Japan's government was called a government by assassination. Both coup attempts failed, but as the perpetrators were barely punished, their sedition was rewarded. Don't forget the initial invasion in 1931 was a seditious act, which the PM back in Tokyo was unable to punish and therefore resigned.

This means a peace agreement that weakens the IJA's hand will provoke a coup before it's signed, which means there will be no agreement.
 
This means a peace agreement that weakens the IJA's hand will provoke a coup before it's signed, which means there will be no agreement.
And what happens if the IJN refuses to play along? It could ally with the civilian government and we get a civil war. What if the Emperor publicly comes out in favor of the treaty and against the IJA?
 
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Anyways, assuming Japan is limited to the Empire proper, Manchuria, some coastal cessions, and Hainan, I imagine Japan's sphere of influence will spread to southeast asia and Africa.

Japan had a good relationship with Ethiopia, probably would have no qualms trading with the South Africans, and would be very very interested in gulf oil. The need for gulf oil likely would result in them pursuing a String of Pearls strategy, and they had decent relations with Thailand OTL IIRC. They'd probably support anti-french decolonial efforts in Indochina, and I could see Buddhist Ceylon possibly cozying up to Japan over time in order to get some distance from India (thus providing Japan with a good Indian Ocean base as well).

The East Asia Co-Propserity Sphere's members likely are Japan, Manchukuo, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and Thailand at the least. Japan would have a lot of interest in building a canal in the Kra Isthmus methinks, because they would want access to the Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf separate from the major blocking power of the United States and United Kingdom.

Interestingly, the long-term geopolitics of Japan favor the Imperial Japanese Navy. That might lead to the country's politics being less nutty.


Indonesia would be interesting. Would it even remain a united country? It could end up being Pro-Japanese or it could be divided between a bunch of statelets with some being pro-Japan and others not so much. Japan invested a lot in Indonesia OTL during its boom years IIRC.


The Philippines will be a lot more important to the United States TTL. Manilla and Subic Bay would remain the Keystone of the American Pacific rather than Okinawa.
 

trurle

Banned
Manchukuo had a clear southern border - the Great Wall. South of that, the Japanese formed "autonomous governments" that flew the ROC flag and hung Sun Yat Sen portraits.


By now, all peace attempts by the civilian government in Tokyo were simply ignored - and twice triggered coup attempts. So many pro-peace government ministers were assassinated that Japan's government was called a government by assassination. Both coup attempts failed, but as the perpetrators were barely punished, their sedition was rewarded. Don't forget the initial invasion in 1931 was a seditious act, which the PM back in Tokyo was unable to punish and therefore resigned.

This means a peace agreement that weakens the IJA's hand will provoke a coup before it's signed, which means there will be no agreement.
IJA post-1939 was much more disciplined and generally controllable. The question of peace in China is therefore mostly about political will, on both sides.
 
Anyways, assuming Japan is limited to the Empire proper, Manchuria, some coastal cessions, and Hainan, I imagine Japan's sphere of influence will spread to southeast asia and Africa.

Japan had a good relationship with Ethiopia, probably would have no qualms trading with the South Africans, and would be very very interested in gulf oil. The need for gulf oil likely would result in them pursuing a String of Pearls strategy, and they had decent relations with Thailand OTL IIRC. They'd probably support anti-french decolonial efforts in Indochina, and I could see Buddhist Ceylon possibly cozying up to Japan over time in order to get some distance from India (thus providing Japan with a good Indian Ocean base as well).

The East Asia Co-Propserity Sphere's members likely are Japan, Manchukuo, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and Thailand at the least. Japan would have a lot of interest in building a canal in the Kra Isthmus methinks, because they would want access to the Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf separate from the major blocking power of the United States and United Kingdom.

Interestingly, the long-term geopolitics of Japan favor the Imperial Japanese Navy. That might lead to the country's politics being less nutty.


Indonesia would be interesting. Would it even remain a united country? It could end up being Pro-Japanese or it could be divided between a bunch of statelets with some being pro-Japan and others not so much. Japan invested a lot in Indonesia OTL during its boom years IIRC.


The Philippines will be a lot more important to the United States TTL. Manilla and Subic Bay would remain the Keystone of the American Pacific rather than Okinawa.

While I am digging back into World war One so my changes may be more profound I tend to agree here. The Army really saw the hand writing on the wall, for Japan the Navy was her true defender so the IJA needed a mission and unrest/conquest in China delivers. So long as Japan has territory in China it lets the IJA have voice in affairs. But we could see the Army sated with Manchuria, Korea, Formosa and policing in China proper. I think they expand out to carve out spheres so long as China has warlords and a weak central government. (As an aside I am toying with Japan siding with Germany to oust the French and grab their concessions. That brings Japan formally into Shanghai and Zhanjiang, also Hankou, Canton, Tientsin, etc.) Here the army is vital but overall I do think long term the IJN is getting more say.

My suspicion is that the KMT supports Vietnamese nationalists against the French and seeks to oust the UK and USA concessions, but after dealing with Japan. So might be interesting if Japan and China can find common ground. Japan might be as eager as the USSR was to promote decolonialization, revolution to weaken the Imperial powers and break up empires to get at the colonies. Japan is certainly in need of oil, its imports are from the USA and will likely grow towards DEI, Venezuela, Arabia, with the Gulf becoming a magnet for her designs. I will bet Japan aids the Indians in independence, Japan now looks at the Indian Ocean as its next sphere.
The DEI likely see a lot of Japanese efforts to oust the Dutch, again supporting nationalists, etc.

The Philippines should remain more important, but it is a toss up, with independence the USA might retreat, but without the war the USA might have better relations to sustain staying, it really is the only American stronghold. Again I think Japan gets involved to try and force the USA out as it gets the locals up in arms.
 
The Philippines should remain more important, but it is a toss up, with independence the USA might retreat, but without the war the USA might have better relations to sustain staying, it really is the only American stronghold. Again I think Japan gets involved to try and force the USA out as it gets the locals up in arms.
How would that work?
 
Maybe a successful Hull Note causes Chiang to lose hope in Western aid leaving Japan able to manipulate Chiang into forming a pro-Japanese bloc government and delaying the offensive into the DEI and Malaysia for a year or so. Taking the US out of the war for even that long probably extends the conflict by about 6-8 months, leaving the UK in a position to accept Japanese bullying tactics in the East or risk a two-front war. Eventually I think Japan would attack anyway, but the US will have a more battleship-based navy for another year or two. Singapore might be more reinforced but it is not likely to make a difference if the Japanese come down the Kra Peninsula. Overall the war ends much as OTL but a half-year to year later, perhaps with Japan *and* Germany with post-nuclear memorials. Without US aid in numbers it may also let the Germans take Moscow in the early part of Barbarossa, especially if Japan decides the time is right with a more stable China/Pacific and cuts off Siberia from the West with eyes on the tender parts of the Motherland.
 
How would that work?

First we would have to consider how serious the USA is in granting independence, the timing and how much footprint it wants to retain after. Next we must not forget that the USA has already earned dissatisfaction among the Filipinos with the pacification of the Moros, the racist overtones of our neglect and indifference, etc. As much as WW2 may have generated gratefulness at being liberated, we at first abandoned them and then brutally waged war over them, so it is a mixed bag. But here we do not have the pro-America sentiments without the war, the older quasi-colonial treatment is the backdrop.

Japan could effectively spin its Asia for Asians message into an anti-Colonial mantra. I think that plays strongly in every corner of Asia, including enough in the Philippines to open the wounds and gain political discourse on getting the Americans out. This is easier post-independence where the USA retains only bases and the biggest contributions to the economy are bar tabs and hourly hotel rentals. Even with the USA fully treating it like Puerto Rico the ill will can be fanned by Japan and exploited, maybe more so. It is a long game but then Asians tend to be more patient than Americans, so the water gets hotter and hotter until the USA jumps. Japan here is playing decades ahead.

But we might not even need that. The USA could utilize Guam and as technology improves a forward base becomes less vital. It is not ideal to project forward from Pearl Harbor but it doable. The issue is really how badly does the USA want ships forward deployed in Asia or reaching to the Indian Ocean? As Japan sews up Asia it might look more imperative, but we are undecided ow the relations have evolved, this may not be an environment for gun boat diplomacy. Is the USA imposing itself or merely defending itself? Does it favor trade over military position? I think long term the USA will simply trade with Imperial Japan and ignore the rhetoric, as long as Dollars flow the USA cares little who it deals with.
 
Oddly enough with Communism as a common enemy the USA and Empire of Japan might become friends on different terms during the Cold War.
 
The Commonwealth of the Philippines was a transitional governmental status that was only supposed to last for 10 years. On July 4th 1945, the Philippines will be independent.
 
The Commonwealth of the Philippines was a transitional governmental status that was only supposed to last for 10 years. On July 4th 1945, the Philippines will be independent.

Assuming no Pacific War, how strongly does the USA fight for bases? One can argue that the bases in the Philippines exist to maintain US power there, once they are independent the bases are superfluous. Theoretically so is Guam, Midway and Pearl Harbor, each is part of the connection to the Philippines. That ignores the motives to protect trade and assert power otherwise, but without a clear "enemy" the USA can afford to retreat from far east bases. That leaves it to the UK and France to police things. The USA can afford more (military) isolationism without the global threats imposed by WWII and its aftermath.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
First we would have to consider how serious the USA is in granting independence, the timing and how much footprint it wants to retain after. Next we must not forget that the USA has already earned dissatisfaction among the Filipinos with the pacification of the Moros, the racist overtones of our neglect and indifference, etc. As much as WW2 may have generated gratefulness at being liberated, we at first abandoned them and then brutally waged war over them, so it is a mixed bag. But here we do not have the pro-America sentiments without the war, the older quasi-colonial treatment is the backdrop.
I don't think the Catholic Filipinos were ever friends of the Moros.
 
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