Wins in China before 1941 so no Oil embargo and doesn't attack France,Britain or the United StatesJapan avoided WW2, its oil shortages
Europe goes as OTLoutcome of TTL WW2
lets go with recognition of Japanese puppets and large amounts of territorial and economic concessions.What does "win" mean?
That would be a net loss for Japan, since Manchukuo already existed as an entity, Shanghai was already internationalized, and they would have to withdraw their troops from the rest of China, which would remove the source of leverage they had already been using for decades. It would definitely provoke another coup, and we'll be at war again.I'm pretty sure the US offered a peace deal at one point that was basically a white peace + recognition of Manchukuo.
The best I could see the Japanese getting is recognition of Manchukuo, an internationalization of Shanghai, and a withdrawal from mainland China (Hainan ultimately becoming an open question as to whether it counts as mainland China).
What would the Borders of this Manchukuo look like?I'm pretty sure the US offered a peace deal at one point that was basically a white peace + recognition of Manchukuo.
The best I could see the Japanese getting is recognition of Manchukuo, an internationalization of Shanghai, and a withdrawal from mainland China (Hainan ultimately becoming an open question as to whether it counts as mainland China).
A coup against the Japanese Parliament or the Emperor? We could see a Japanese civil war then, not another war. Remember a military is not a monolithic bloc, the army and navy could be fighting on different sides.It would definitely provoke another coup, and we'll be at war again.
Manchukuo had a clear southern border - the Great Wall. South of that, the Japanese formed "autonomous governments" that flew the ROC flag and hung Sun Yat Sen portraits.What would the Borders of this Manchukuo look like?
By now, all peace attempts by the civilian government in Tokyo were simply ignored - and twice triggered coup attempts. So many pro-peace government ministers were assassinated that Japan's government was called a government by assassination. Both coup attempts failed, but as the perpetrators were barely punished, their sedition was rewarded. Don't forget the initial invasion in 1931 was a seditious act, which the PM back in Tokyo was unable to punish and therefore resigned.A coup against the Japanese Parliament or the Emperor? We could see a Japanese civil war then, not another war. Remember a military is not a monolithic bloc, the army and navy could be fighting on different sides.
And what happens if the IJN refuses to play along? It could ally with the civilian government and we get a civil war. What if the Emperor publicly comes out in favor of the treaty and against the IJA?This means a peace agreement that weakens the IJA's hand will provoke a coup before it's signed, which means there will be no agreement.
IJA post-1939 was much more disciplined and generally controllable. The question of peace in China is therefore mostly about political will, on both sides.Manchukuo had a clear southern border - the Great Wall. South of that, the Japanese formed "autonomous governments" that flew the ROC flag and hung Sun Yat Sen portraits.
By now, all peace attempts by the civilian government in Tokyo were simply ignored - and twice triggered coup attempts. So many pro-peace government ministers were assassinated that Japan's government was called a government by assassination. Both coup attempts failed, but as the perpetrators were barely punished, their sedition was rewarded. Don't forget the initial invasion in 1931 was a seditious act, which the PM back in Tokyo was unable to punish and therefore resigned.
This means a peace agreement that weakens the IJA's hand will provoke a coup before it's signed, which means there will be no agreement.
Anyways, assuming Japan is limited to the Empire proper, Manchuria, some coastal cessions, and Hainan, I imagine Japan's sphere of influence will spread to southeast asia and Africa.
Japan had a good relationship with Ethiopia, probably would have no qualms trading with the South Africans, and would be very very interested in gulf oil. The need for gulf oil likely would result in them pursuing a String of Pearls strategy, and they had decent relations with Thailand OTL IIRC. They'd probably support anti-french decolonial efforts in Indochina, and I could see Buddhist Ceylon possibly cozying up to Japan over time in order to get some distance from India (thus providing Japan with a good Indian Ocean base as well).
The East Asia Co-Propserity Sphere's members likely are Japan, Manchukuo, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and Thailand at the least. Japan would have a lot of interest in building a canal in the Kra Isthmus methinks, because they would want access to the Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf separate from the major blocking power of the United States and United Kingdom.
Interestingly, the long-term geopolitics of Japan favor the Imperial Japanese Navy. That might lead to the country's politics being less nutty.
Indonesia would be interesting. Would it even remain a united country? It could end up being Pro-Japanese or it could be divided between a bunch of statelets with some being pro-Japan and others not so much. Japan invested a lot in Indonesia OTL during its boom years IIRC.
The Philippines will be a lot more important to the United States TTL. Manilla and Subic Bay would remain the Keystone of the American Pacific rather than Okinawa.
How would that work?The Philippines should remain more important, but it is a toss up, with independence the USA might retreat, but without the war the USA might have better relations to sustain staying, it really is the only American stronghold. Again I think Japan gets involved to try and force the USA out as it gets the locals up in arms.
How would that work?
The Commonwealth of the Philippines was a transitional governmental status that was only supposed to last for 10 years. On July 4th 1945, the Philippines will be independent.
I don't think the Catholic Filipinos were ever friends of the Moros.First we would have to consider how serious the USA is in granting independence, the timing and how much footprint it wants to retain after. Next we must not forget that the USA has already earned dissatisfaction among the Filipinos with the pacification of the Moros, the racist overtones of our neglect and indifference, etc. As much as WW2 may have generated gratefulness at being liberated, we at first abandoned them and then brutally waged war over them, so it is a mixed bag. But here we do not have the pro-America sentiments without the war, the older quasi-colonial treatment is the backdrop.