Surviving Independent Manchuria?

I was just driven to wonder if there's any way to jigger the closing months of WW2 and the early post-war era to allow for an independent Manchuria? Easily done, you say, just make the Chinese Civil War end differently. Fair enough, I respond, but is there any way to get a PRC and an independent Manchuria?
 
Only way I can think of off the top of my head is that the Chinese communists manage to do something to monumentally piss off the Soviets so that it prompts an earlier Sino-Soviet split, with them declaring the Chinese to be deviationists from the one true path and support an independent Manchuria, perhaps enlarged somewhat, that's run by the right kind of communist regime. The Soviets already recognised Manchukuo's as a legitimate state from around 1935 onwards IIRC so it might be workable for them to simply not give it back to China after their invasion in 1945.
 
Why not have Stalin distrust the capability of the CCP to take power and never revoke the recognition of Manchuria, ironicly this can help the KMT as their best troops won´t be isolated and destroyed in Manchuria.
 
The Allies had all agreed that Manchuria would be returned to China during WWII. If Stalin refused to do it, it means a major breakdown of Allied diplomacy in 1944 and 1945. It would accelerate the Cold War considerably. It would also delegitimize the CCP and greatly destroy their support within China.

I can't think of any realistic scenario where the PRC and an independent Manchuria can exist. I'm sure if you are creative enough, you can jury rig some bizarre scenario where it happens, but I would question its inherent plausibility - and that seems outside the POD window of "closing months of WWII".

There's various ways to see an independent Manchuria and a Nationalist China though.
 
It would also delegitimize the CCP and greatly destroy their support within China.
I dont thik so. There were many factions with in Chinese Communism, including a pro moscow faction whose members had been killed by Mao.


The Allies had all agreed that Manchuria would be returned to China during WWII. If Stalin refused to do it, it means a major breakdown of Allied diplomacy in 1944 and 1945.
True, but Stain was very adept at calling western bluffs. Past May 1945, the west had increasingly little leverage over the Soviet Union as Germany had been defeated. I imagine that if Manchuria was returned to Chinese control as an independent state (by popular "elections" of course) and governed by reliably pro Moscow communists, the west would protest, but would ultimately accept it.
 
I was just driven to wonder if there's any way to jigger the closing months of WW2 and the early post-war era to allow for an independent Manchuria? Easily done, you say, just make the Chinese Civil War end differently. Fair enough, I respond, but is there any way to get a PRC and an independent Manchuria?

I don't think it's impossible. Stalin didn't like Mao too much and he was reviled by many of his own comrades. Perhaps if Mao and Stalin develop an even greater mutual disliking, and if the CCP makes some critical strategic mistakes between 1945 and 48, it would lead the CCP to splinter. Stalin would support one group in Manchuria that would leave Mao out to dry as a warlord in central China. They do not actively fight each other but they do not cooperate either, paralyzing Mao's efforts. Somehow he pulls off another 1936 and saves his own faction, defeating the KMT. Then as he turns his attention to the traitors within the CCP, the Soviet Army blocks his way in Shenyang, keeping Manchuria in a peculiar situation where it is neither an independent state nor under Mao's rule. Butterflies cause the Chairman to be really insane in the 1960s (he is under more pressure, kind of like the DPRK is IOTL) and the PRC undergoes severe turmoil. In the 1970s Mao finally dies and in the ensuring struggle, Manchuria formally breaks from the PRC, making its own "Soviet Republic of China", simply called "Manchuria" in casual speech. The PRC is stabilized under not-as-crazy leadership and from the late 70s to the present day a situation similar to the OTL PRC/ROC problem subsists.
 
More easily, prevent the Xi'an incident. The Communists were about to be eliminated before the coup. At the time, communist guerrilla in Manchuria are not under the command of the CCP but the Soviet Union, After the war, Manchuria would be run by those Manchurian communists that after all had yet to establish connections with the now-defunt CCP. A full-scale civil WR may not even happen, because it would be a Soviet client state.
 
More easily, prevent the Xi'an incident. The Communists were about to be eliminated before the coup. At the time, communist guerrilla in Manchuria are not under the command of the CCP but the Soviet Union, After the war, Manchuria would be run by those Manchurian communists that after all had yet to establish connections with the now-defunt CCP. A full-scale civil WR may not even happen, because it would be a Soviet client state.

But that would prevent the PRC from coming to power in the rest of China, which is what the OP specified.
 
I dont thik so. There were many factions with in Chinese Communism, including a pro moscow faction whose members had been killed by Mao.

If the CCP accepts the Soviets tearing apart Manchuria from China, it is finished as a political force in China. They are branded as traitors. Chiang likely wipes them out in the civil war, so there is no PRC.

If the CCP denounces the Soviets tearing apart Manchuria from China, they get no aide from the Soviets and aren't able to get any of the leftover Japanese and Manchukuo supplies the Red Army gave them. Without those supplies and a stable based to recruit and build up outside the Nationalist hands, the CCP can't win the civil war, so there is no PRC.


True, but Stain was very adept at calling western bluffs. Past May 1945, the west had increasingly little leverage over the Soviet Union as Germany had been defeated. I imagine that if Manchuria was returned to Chinese control as an independent state (by popular "elections" of course) and governed by reliably pro Moscow communists, the west would protest, but would ultimately accept it.

The west would not fight the Soviet Union for Manchuris, you are correct. But it also means that it is highly unlilkely the US will cooperate with the Soviets on any other issue. And there are still lots of things the Soviets need to do in Europe which is vitally more important to them, and for them they need US acquiescence. Done this early, the US could complicate things by demanding changes in the occupation policies in Eastern Europe, refusing to recognize the Lublin regime in Poland, publicly backing King Michael in Romania, and the non-communist parties that will win the 1946 elections in Europe. It would harm the attempt by the Soviets to legitimize the Soviet occupations there. This is a big, big loss in exchange for gaining Manchuria. How furious the US might react is open to debate, but it jeopardizes Soviet goals, and Stalin preferred moves that were less risky. Provoking the US to act as it did in 1948 while in 1945/1946 is not in Stalin's best interests.
 
Perhaps then the key thing is to somehow get a situation where Stalin misjudges what cards he holds, and the USSR thinks it can make a play for Manchuria while still getting Eastern Europe?
 
Just thinking out loud here: What if you go back to the late 1920s? The Old Marshall had established a fairly strong (militarily to some and economically to a greater extent) state in Manchuria. He then blew it by a long series of ultimately futile interventions to gain influence in northern China. That destroyed his economic base and turned Manchuria back into just another warlord state.

What if he decides that Manchuria is enough? Continues to build the economy and the army. The Japanese were mainly about keeping a unified China from emerging at this point. They wouldn't be thrilled to see anyone get too strong in North China, but without the economic weakness and chaos that followed the Old Marshall's excursions into China, the Kwantung army probably couldn't have taken Manchuria on it's own, and taking Manchuria was not Japanese government policy at the time.

Hmmm. No Japanese puppet state in Manchuria, or at least a delay of that state. No easy early victory to put the strut in Japanese militarists. We might butterfly away WW2 (or not) but that doesn't get us a CCP and and independent Manchuria. Anyone see a way to get there from here?
 
The Japanese killed Zhang Zuolin because he wanted to unify China, but I'm not sure of the details since I also read that they were pissed at him having done poorly against the central government.
 
The Emperor of Manchuria IOTL was fleeing to Japan where he intended to officially surrender to the Americans but was captured en route, so if you prevent his capture and have him officially surrender to the United States and officially declare Manchukou to be under American control as a surrendered state you could see a situation where the American and Soviets negotiate and it manages to survive, either as a neutral independent state or as one of two countries that call themselves China like IOTL with the Mainland and Taiwan.
 
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Have mao killed and then the KMT surges to the Northwest. The Soviets believe that China is lost so East Turkestan and Outer Mongolia are pulled directly into the Soviet Orbit while Manchuria is given control to a new government of Moscow's choice and then ordered not to push south to intervene in the fight between the CCP and the KMT because Moscow believes the KMT have lost. Have the KMT then suffer a series of major reversals and have the CCP under new-ish leadership storm south and take the mainland much to Moscow's surprise. More plausible IMO than the USSR working directly against Mao.
 
The Emperor of Manchuria IOTL was fleeing to Japan where he intended to officially surrender to the Americans but was captured en route, so if you prevent his capture and have him officially surrender to the United States and officially declare Manchukou to be under American control as a surrendered state you could see a situation where the American and Soviets negotiate and it manages to survive, either as a neutral independent state or as one two countries that cal themselves China like IOTL with the Mainland and Taiwan.
Is that going to work out any better than Poland or any of the other Eastern European countries that the Soviets effectively occupied post-WW2? Okay the Western Allies threw them under the bus by agreeing to their being a Soviet zone of influence, and the Soviets likewise that Manchuria would go back to China, but once Stalin has troops sitting in the place what can anyone do if he decides to change his mind? If he decides to change things that much by keeping it seperate does the US have anything to actually negotiate with?
 
Butterfly away Zhang Zuolin.

He was the one who shipped in all the ethnic Han Chinese immigrants from Shandong province :cool: (and other parts of Northern China.)

Without him, we may have a Korean majority in Manchuria, or even Japanese or Russian majority.

A wild card: The Xinhai Revolution became a truly nationwide event (other than only in Southern China like IOTL), the revolutionaries seize the power in Beijing... And deport the Manchus back to Manchuria...

Once Manchuria become a Chinese Majority region, I doubt there is anyway to make it a genuine "foreign" country.
 
Is that going to work out any better than Poland or any of the other Eastern European countries that the Soviets effectively occupied post-WW2? Okay the Western Allies threw them under the bus by agreeing to their being a Soviet zone of influence, and the Soviets likewise that Manchuria would go back to China, but once Stalin has troops sitting in the place what can anyone do if he decides to change his mind? If he decides to change things that much by keeping it seperate does the US have anything to actually negotiate with?

They'd have legal leverage to do so, I'm not saying it'd go Western or the Soviets would just give it up, but it could lead to a situation where the Soviets and American agree to establish spheres of influence, with Manchukuo becoming the People's Republic of Manchuria (or outright annexed as an SSR depending) while the U.S. backs the KMT and the Soviets agree to not help the CCP.


Once Manchuria become a Chinese Majority region, I doubt there is anyway to make it a genuine "foreign" country.

That never posed much of a problem in the past, up until the early 20's 35% of Xinjiang was Han, then they were almost all expelled until after the end pf the Chinese Civil War at which point they and others returned.

The Han were the majority in Manchukou throughout its existence, but it would'nt be to difficult for either during the regime or post-war for something to happen leading to forced expulsions of large amounts leading to them only being 48-52% of the population.
 
. Done this early, the US could complicate things by demanding changes in the occupation policies in Eastern Europe, refusing to recognize the Lublin regime in Poland, publicly backing King Michael in Romania, and the non-communist parties that will win the 1946 elections in Europe.
I think Poland and Romania are too close to the Soviet power base to be saved. Though western influence could make things difficult for the Soviets, the NKVD, red army units and local communists could bring enough force to overwhelm any western sponsored opposition.

But... what about Korea? If the South Koreans were to invade North Korea (with U.S. support) in response to an independent and communist Manchuria, there might not be a lot the Soviets could do. The penninsula was far from Soviet logisitics centers and Soviet forces moving into the penninsula would not only be drawn from an exhausted nation, but would also be vulnerabe to U.S. amphibious landings, airpower and naval bombardment.
If the CCP denounces the Soviets tearing apart Manchuria from China, they get no aide from the Soviets and aren't able to get any of the leftover Japanese and Manchukuo supplies the Red Army gave them. Without those supplies and a stable based to recruit and build up outside the Nationalist hands, the CCP can't win the civil war, so there is no PRC.
I see your point, but the Chinese communists may have little options and could work in agreement with the Soviets - public deninciation, but still receive Soviet aid as the Soviets do not want a Nationalist victory when they can have both an independent Manchuria and a communist, though not Moscow friendly government in China proper.
 
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Okay, switching gears a bit, what about no Northern Expedition (for whatever reason)? Could you end up with a more or less stable partition of China into a Nationalist south, a Beijing 'national' government, a Communist republic in and around Jiangxi (or further northwest), and Manchuria either under the Zhang 'dynasty'? Independent warlords are eventually defeated or absorbed, but none of the four Chinas is strong enough to conquer the others and unify the country. Perhaps because each one has a foreign backer - the British and French in the south, the Germans in Beijing, the Soviets in Jiangxi and the Japanese in Manchuria?
 
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