Surviving Independent Manchuria?

[mcdo]

The Japanese killed Zhang Zuolin because he wanted to unify China, but I'm not sure of the details since I also read that they were pissed at him having done poorly against the central government.

Hmm... This is interwar Japan we are talking about. It's difficult to speak of Japanese policy as a unified whole. Certainly, there were already those in the military who wanted to turn Manchuria from purely an economic colony/sphere into a fully-fledged colony. But this was also the era of Shidehara Diplomacy, when Japan annoyed her Western peers by pressing to accept Chinese demands for tarrif autonomy.

I suspect that many Japanese leaders (though not in the military) would've been happy to see an end to the Warlord Era--it would be good for business. But they would not accept it if it meant giving up their economic rights in China. I believe that Zhang Zuolin was murdered for the same reason that, even during the Shidehara days, Japan deployed troops to Shandong. Japan had been willing to give up all but her economic rights there. But she was not willing to give up those. That is why they resisted when the KMT launched the Northern Expeidition, and why Zhang was killed. They felt (in my opinion) that his aligning himself with the KMT put all the Japanese factories, railroads, etc. already in Manchuria at risk.

Butterfly away Zhang Zuolin.

He was the one who shipped in all the ethnic Han Chinese immigrants from Shandong province (and other parts of Northern China.)

Without him, we may have a Korean majority in Manchuria, or even Japanese or Russian majority.
[...]
Once Manchuria become a Chinese Majority region, I doubt there is anyway to make it a genuine "foreign" country.

That never posed much of a problem in the past, up until the early 20's 35% of Xinjiang was Han, then they were almost all expelled until after the end pf the Chinese Civil War at which point they and others returned.

The Han were the majority in Manchukou throughout its existence, but it would'nt be to difficult for either during the regime or post-war for something to happen leading to forced expulsions of large amounts leading to them only being 48-52% of the population.

I don't think the ethnic Han Chinese have to be expelled to create a lasting independent Manchuria (though it would likely make things easier). You just have to create a situation in which the people of Manchuria feel themselves to be a seperate nation and people, regardless of what we might call their ethnicity. If they experience vastly different cultural events, if they lead different lives, for a few generations, they may well develop their own identity. It happened to the English colonists in what became the US, it happened with Austria and Germany, and it happened with Taiwan and China. Given enough time, it could happen with Manchuria.

 

[Color-Copycat]

It might be difficult for a sense of Manchurian nationality to arise naturally as throughout the '20s and '30s, immigration of Han Chinese from the rest of the nation to that region was at an all time high. From contemporary literature, it almost seems that every peasant family's second or third son who wanted to hit it big either signed up with a warlord army or set out for the Manchurian frontier.

 

[LeX]

Hmm... This is interwar Japan we are talking about. It's difficult to speak of Japanese policy as a unified whole. Certainly, there were already those in the military who wanted to turn Manchuria from purely an economic colony/sphere into a fully-fledged colony. But this was also the era of Shidehara Diplomacy, when Japan annoyed her Western peers by pressing to accept Chinese demands for tarrif autonomy.

I suspect that many Japanese leaders (though not in the military) would've been happy to see an end to the Warlord Era--it would be good for business. But they would not accept it if it meant giving up their economic rights in China. I believe that Zhang Zuolin was murdered for the same reason that, even during the Shidehara days, Japan deployed troops to Shandong. Japan had been willing to give up all but her economic rights there. But she was not willing to give up those. That is why they resisted when the KMT launched the Northern Expeidition, and why Zhang was killed. They felt (in my opinion) that his aligning himself with the KMT put all the Japanese factories, railroads, etc. already in Manchuria at risk.

So basically had Japan and China been able to cooperate on the economic issues, then they would've been able to coexist more peaceably. It would seem that the radicals driving operations in Manchuria (who wanted colonization) would preclude such cooperation. On the flip side it would've been rather obvious to support Chiang Kai-shek, who would've been glad to cooperate if he knew he had Japanese support. The problem as I gather it was that the the important Japanese players involved were already suffering from victory disease and didn't want to consider China's interests.

I don't think the ethnic Han Chinese have to be expelled to create a lasting independent Manchuria (though it would likely make things easier). You just have to create a situation in which the people of Manchuria feel themselves to be a seperate nation and people, regardless of what we might call their ethnicity. If they experience vastly different cultural events, if they lead different lives, for a few generations, they may well develop their own identity. It happened to the English colonists in what became the US, it happened with Austria and Germany, and it happened with Taiwan and China. Given enough time, it could happen with Manchuria.

I don't think they would have to be expelled either. You could simply have the Zhang regime survive, get direct support from Japan and good relations with other countries like the USA and Germany, have the USSR be preoccupied by other matters in the west, and most importantly, see the CKS regime splinter under the burden of having too many warlords and the rise of the CCP tearing it apart in the 30s. The Manchurians might look at China proper and shy away in a "let's not touch that with a twenty-foot pole" sentiment, and eventually develop their own identity, especially if the CCP takes over China like IOTL and makes the place really alien. If China remains splintered, the drive to reunify the whole mess, no matter how detrimental economically or logistically speaking it would be to Manchuria, would remain on the agenda and we would have Qing China 2.0. Which would actually be quite interesting.