Surviving Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland?

Cook

Banned
Seems an extremely unlikely scenario to me.

Even finding a way to keep Mugabe out of the Presidency (or removing him once he was in it) seems difficult.
 
Don't knock it...

...I'm hot agin racism, but was astonished to hear reports that the retired Ian Smith was actually popular with black Zimbabweans, who thought of the pre-Mugabe years as a sort of Golden Age.

You need a degree of 'let's get democratic representation' in both the tribes and the administration, with the formation of a Consultative Assembly and a bicameral chamber. The white settlers might be electing a sort of House of Lords/Senators, the tribes a Commons/Congress, with a Governor-General above them. That would be both paternalist and liberal.

Give him a chance!
 
The OP's talking about the FEDERATION not the republic. They're very different beasts.

For the Federation to survive, you need the conservatives in London to realize the threat of communism early on in the 50's. Give it commonwealth independence, set it up as a free-voting commonwealth like Australia, funnel it a bunch of $$$$ from the US and UK and: BOOM! The Federation, bending successful management of the inevitable brushfire wars between them and the Comms, The Federation is alive and kicking.

The REPUBLIC is much more difficult, since it had 1/3rd the population and no sensible group to oppose the South Rhodesian Racists (Save, Perhaps, Papa Smith himself :)). Worse than that, the republic was seen as a rogue state. Of the three major powers of the Cold War-being the US, USSR, and PRC-not a one supported Rhodesia. Plus, Britain LOATHED the republic, and had a P5 vote. In short: you can MAYBE do this kind of timeline...pm me if you need ideas.

Personally, I used the Federatioon in my timeline-in-progress (Stalwart Lion: The Urvival of the Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland) simply because it's the POD with least bloodshed, and allows for a Rhodesia with the capacity to expand.

Did I answer your questions?
 
Just as an FYI, most black Rhodesians did NOT like Smith. Hell, they didn't care for white Rhodesians in general. Rhodesia was not the apartheid state, but racism was still very, very much in attendance. Mugabe's first two terms were the golden years, owing to his then-benign leadership at first, which got increasingly dictatorial over time. Mugabe ultimately vindicated the views of much of Smith's cabinet, who expected that Mugabe and Nkomo would ultimately destroy the modern state.

Anyways, the federation was going to collapse, it was simply a matter of when. A better idea would be integrating the two Rhodesias as one state, and allowing more moderate leaders (Garfield Todd, for example) to come to the front. If you stick with the leadership of Higgins and Welensky, not much can change, and adding Smith into the mix makes things worse. Nyasaland was a place where the whites were by 1960 outnumbered nearly 1000-1, and the presence of Hastings Kamuzu Banda makes keeping them part of the federation nearly impossible. Better idea might be to lose Nyasaland and reform the Federation as just Rhodesia. Keeping McMillan from making the Winds of Change speech, which sent African whites in general into a frenzy, would be a big help, too. Even then, that unitary Rhodesian state may or may not be able to hang on, considering the problems that Smith and white Rhodesians faced. I think the only way that white Rhodesia could survive is if it becomes a satellite state of South Africa. If you can keep the two Rhodesias until 1975, South Africa's war in Angola might just force Pretoria to make Salisbury a major ally.
 
Even finding a way to keep Mugabe out of the Presidency (or removing him once he was in it) seems difficult.

That's easy. Have the Rhodesian SAS land in the middle of a ZANLA camp that Mugabe is inspecting and have them blow him away. Considering how good the Rhodesian SAS and Selous Scouts got, that's not hard at all. Keeping Mugabe's guys away from Rhodesia's major fuel depots would help, too.

One option I can see is that the UK decides it has an interest in keeping communism out of Africa, and decides that if it can integrate blacks into the UK (they starting showing up right after WWII) it can work an integration in its African colonies. The idea corditeman has might work - a bicameral system, where one side cannot pass legislation without the other on board. This probably keeps Mugabe, Nkomo and Kaunda from taking up arms (a big deal). The UK and US, sensing a chance to put Rhodesia firmly in the Western camp, funds major efforts to make things work. Nyasaland is still split off, but Rhodesia gains commonwealth independence in 1958, and has the same major economic boom that also fueled South Africa in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s. Rhodesia over time liberalizes with respect to race, resulting in universal suffrage coming in the early to mid 1980s.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Personally, I used the Federatioon in my timeline-in-progress (Stalwart Lion: The Urvival of the Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland) simply because it's the POD with least bloodshed, and allows for a Rhodesia with the capacity to expand.
That sounds interesting. Can you provide a link?:)
 
That sounds interesting. Can you provide a link?:)

[thread=147270]Here.[/thread]

(I remember b/c I saw that right after I posted this thread and thought, "Wow, what a strange coincidence that there are two people thinking about this obscure subject here at the same time")
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
[thread=147270]Here.[/thread]

(I remember b/c I saw that right after I posted this thread and thought, "Wow, what a strange coincidence that there are two people thinking about this obscure subject here at the same time")
Thankee kindly, good sir :)
 

Cook

Banned
That's easy. Have the Rhodesian SAS land in the middle of a ZANLA camp that Mugabe is inspecting and have them blow him away. Considering how good the Rhodesian SAS and Selous Scouts got, that's not hard at all. Keeping Mugabe's guys away from Rhodesia's major fuel depots would help, too.

It’s remarkable then that they lost; especially given their repeated failures to kill Joshua Nkomo.
 
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It’s remarkable then that they lost; especially given their repeated failures to kill Joshua Nkomo.

Nkomo was always the better military operative of the the two, and ZIPRA had more conventional firepower than ZANLA did, but ZANLA had more support among the people and more effective guerilla warfare tactics. They lost because when you are outnumbered 20-1, no amount of skill in the world is probably gonna save you from a political defeat, especially considering Rhodesia's isolation. All things considered, the fact that Salisbury lasted as long as it did is somewhat surprising in itself.
 

Cook

Banned
Nkomo was always the better military operative of the the two, and ZIPRA had more conventional firepower than ZANLA did, but ZANLA had more support among the people and more effective guerilla warfare tactics. They lost because when you are outnumbered 20-1, no amount of skill in the world is probably gonna save you from a political defeat, especially considering Rhodesia's isolation. All things considered, the fact that Salisbury lasted as long as it did is somewhat surprising in itself.

You’ve just stated why I think it seems an extremely unlikely scenario.
As to the duration of the Rhodesian war; insurgency wars are won by people with patience, you don’t rush them. (Something the Taliban know all about)
 
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