Surviving Estado Novo?
- Thread starter Valijun
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- dictatorship portugal
I doubt that Estado Novo can survive if then Salazar is not willingful make some serious reforms. People begun to be tired to the regime and such semi-fascist regime hardly can survive long time anymore. And surely it is going downhill when Franco kicks a bucket and Spain begins transfer to democracy. And colonial wars too damaged popularity of Estado Novo.
Ricardolindo
Banned
I'm Portuguese, it couldn't last much longer, I've read, in another Portuguese user's message, that, the government was, actually, aware of the MFA's plot to overthrow it but seemed to accept its fate.
It is a fact that Caetano pretty much collaborated with the end of the regime.
Lusitania
Donor
Hm... ability and will to survive are two separate items. Many reforms started on the 1960s were providing real benefits. Wages and opportunities were growing. They were winning the war in Mozambique and Angola but guinea was a lost cause. That being said there were lots of structural faults in the country that were holding it back.
The colonial war could of been contained and economic reforms increased. The huge increase in oil prices around the corner would of benefited the country.
Now that being said you noticed I not mention anything about democracy. Fascism like communism if providing for people needs can exist. Look at China or Vietnam where economic progress are being managed by non democratic governments.
My premise is that it lost its will to fight in the mid 1970s . But at sane time it is in a precarious position due to structural defects and reforms that were implemented late.
I will close out with a plug to my post1900 TL “lusophone world” which is based on premise a progressive estado novo without salazar. Where the reforms similar to those implemented in 1960s and 70 happen in the 1930-1940s.
The colonial war could of been contained and economic reforms increased. The huge increase in oil prices around the corner would of benefited the country.
Now that being said you noticed I not mention anything about democracy. Fascism like communism if providing for people needs can exist. Look at China or Vietnam where economic progress are being managed by non democratic governments.
My premise is that it lost its will to fight in the mid 1970s . But at sane time it is in a precarious position due to structural defects and reforms that were implemented late.
I will close out with a plug to my post1900 TL “lusophone world” which is based on premise a progressive estado novo without salazar. Where the reforms similar to those implemented in 1960s and 70 happen in the 1930-1940s.
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What happens on a scenario with kaúlza de arriaga outmanouvering Caetano and couping the government by himself?
Lusitania
Donor
He was aligned with Salazar and friend with him so he was on the political right of Caetano. Therefore if he had succeeded Salazar instead of Caetano he could of been a person who had the skill and will required to put down any officer who was leaning to left and against the government.
He was a very successful general who implemented a lot of structural changes that strengthened the Portuguese military and thus Portuguese control of Mozambique. He could of carried that through to the government.
The issue is could he of led the government and liberalize the economy, provide for people such as casa do povo, improved education. All of these happen under Caetano. For the estado novo had to improve the lives of the people both whites and Africans to have any chance of surviving longer than iotl.
I thought him a great general and used him as commander of several military operations in Portuguese federation Most importantly operation Bartholomeu Dias.
Well, it is cool to learn more about him. But on a scenario that he takes over during the chaos of april 25 and when the dust settles he's the new president of the concil, what happens next? Can he last until the 80s? Can portugal keeps more territory?
Lusitania
Donor
Hm.., if he moves against Caetano then we have a estado novo civil war and that makes it and Portugal weaker. If he were to be brought in by certain elements in the estado novo to deal with the attempts of 24 April and he succeeds he could then become prime minister with Caetano retiring. Then it could last till late 80s even 90: depending on the social, economic changes brought in by the government but you cannot become more repressive because people will demand more
