Surviving Estado Novo impact on Portugal's colonies

Say the Carnation Revolution is discovered and crushed and Estado Novo takes measures to prevent another military coup

What would be the impact on Portugal's colonies with a surviving Estado Novo

How many Portuguese could there be in the colonies
 
Say the Carnation Revolution is discovered and crushed and Estado Novo takes measures to prevent another military coup

What would be the impact on Portugal's colonies with a surviving Estado Novo

How many Portuguese could there be in the colonies
Discontent was mounting to an unwinnable degree (only the far-right still supported the dictatorship, everyone else, conservatives, liberals, centrists, social-democrats, socialists, communists, the smaller groups of the far-left, was tired of it, and tired of the colonial wars). If the OTL Carnation Revolution didn't happen, another one would follow soon. The Estado Novo was fomenting emigration to keep the colonies, but the very brief window of opportunity to do it for a little longer is not enough to significantly change the outcome. Guinea-Bissau was lost militarily, and while things were controlled in Mozambique, and winning in Angola, even with Rhodesia style independence for them (more likely in Mozambique), the inevitable outcome would have been full independence. The path towards independence may vary, with a slower, more controlled process, under a more moderate revolution, but that requires a preferably earlier revolution.
 
As @Archangel already said, Guinea-Bissau is basically gone. There wasn't really government control out of a few areas, and the legal status of the colony just remained so because the government didn't want to set a precedent for colonies breaking away. But the important places are Mozambique and Angola, so I'll focus on those.

Something important to remember here though, the colonies were viewed as integral parts of the country. The notion of Luso-tropicalism had become dominant, and Salazar made an effort to move administrators around different parts of the empire in order to forward the idea of one, unified, nation. If the Estado Novo survives the CR and any immediately following coups then you're going to see more of what had been happening. The Portuguese were generally winning the military fight, and were cooperating well with Rhodesia and South Africa. The problem was money, as it almost always is. The Portuguese budget was increasingly consumed by defense spending related to the conflicts in the colonies. In order to counter this the country did open itself to some foreign investment, which it had banned before. But even with generous investment the country's finances are going to continue to be stretched. As the pressure, both public and budgetary, mounts the government is going to get more desperate to wrap up the conflicts one way or another. Asking for more help from SA and Rhodesia could help--Rhodesia certainly proved itself capable of projecting force despite its limited resources--but the budget issues will remain. Depending on how long they hang onto the colonies, and how much foreign investment flows in, Portugal could eventually benefit from the oil resources of Angola. I don't know much about the Petroleum industry, but the Angolan civil war that followed the Portuguese exit certainly limited the production capabilities the region.

To summarize, the government has different routes it can pursue to deal with the issue associated with the colonies, but I'm generally of the opinion that Portugal can hold onto Mozambique and Angola basically forever, particularly if they can exploit the oil resources and reinvest them properly, and continue the political integration pursued by the EN. If they get the oil, and keep on the path of European cooperation that Salazar was a great fan of, they can be a highly important, if politically disliked, member of the European community.
 

Lusitania

Donor
For the estado novo to survive you need the 60 reforms to happen sooner for the economic situation to change for better and provide better opportunities and development chance to grow. The restrictive politics will always be there but look at China with its dictatorship and free economy. That ultimately is what the country needed. Just not sure it could do so with the external pressures it faced. Having read lots of information on Estado novo for my own TL I know that the 1970s were the sunset of the Estado novo. Maybe another 5-10 years at most.
 
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Spínola had a more liberalizing mind and forceful personality than Salazar would like, and Salazar preferred harmless non-entities (like Américo Tomás).
It's very important to keep in mind that popular support for the regime was non-existing. There was a majority support for a democracy since the end of ww2. And the support for a regime change only increased as more and more people tired of waiting for a peaceful internal political liberalization that was never coming.
 
Basically the whole army was behind the movement with massive popular support. The videos don't lie and show massed crowds supporting the Army even before the Gouvernement surrendered A failed coup would have only led to a brief civil war.
For the regime to survive, you need an earlier POD with Marcelo Caetano successfully modernizing the regime and allowing for a more negotiated end to the colonial war.
 
If any colonial empire was going to survive/evolve into a federation of equal members, Portugal's probably had the best chance. It's a smaller empire relative to the metropole than France, or the UK, so I think devolved parliaments for East Timor, Angola, etc. may have helped.

Even if the Estado Novo doesn't make immediate moves toward universal suffrage, would a limited-franchise parliament be able to co-opt local elites in Angola and Mozambique? The empire was too far gone by the '70s, but more radical reforms or "experimentation" on a smaller scale (Macau, Timor) might have provided a framework for the larger colonies like Angola and Mozambique.
 

Lusitania

Donor
If any colonial empire was going to survive/evolve into a federation of equal members, Portugal's probably had the best chance. It's a smaller empire relative to the metropole than France, or the UK, so I think devolved parliaments for East Timor, Angola, etc. may have helped.

Even if the Estado Novo doesn't make immediate moves toward universal suffrage, would a limited-franchise parliament be able to co-opt local elites in Angola and Mozambique?

catholic Africans who spoke portuguese were considered portuguese citizens Thousands of blacks did serve in Portuguese forces. The biggest issues was the vast forces arrayed against the Portuguese for they did not even have the backing of the USA who thought they have a better chance with the local African leaders than to back the Portuguese. On the economics they had waited too long to liberalize their economy and open it up to foreign investment. Salazar had an idealized idea of a pre-industrialized society which held the Portuguese back economically for decades. Therefore as I stated before start the reforms earlier to have a decent chance. You can view my TL (see signature) for my idea of surviving Estado Novo.
 

Lusitania

Donor
So Court the assimlados. Almost a Kenyan prior to Kenyatta idea of earned citizenship.
They did try but they started too late and not enough of them were brought into government roles and military. People need to see people who they feel represent them. So party needed to bring people of Asia and Africa into its membership and they needed to rise in ranks. Remember glass ceiling is what destroyed the French and English colonies. If you tell them they portuguese then you need to show them that in your actions.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Also special note, Africans were treated differently in Angola compared to Mozambique. In Angola Portuguese policies and practices were influenced by white minority government of South Africa and Rhodesia but had enough difference to be called Portuguese. While Mozambique was very influenced by South Africa and Rhodesia and I read it was described an extension of the two British countries but it spoke portuguese
 
The anti communist Mozambiqueans tended to come out of both the product of mission schools and the tribalist bushman who practiced pologomy
 
Also special note, Africans were treated differently in Angola compared to Mozambique. In Angola Portuguese policies and practices were influenced by white minority government of South Africa and Rhodesia but had enough difference to be called Portuguese. While Mozambique was very influenced by South Africa and Rhodesia and I read it was described an extension of the two British countries but it spoke portuguese

I believe that's a bit of an overstatement, there were some regions in the south of Mozambique that did practice segregation (mostly South African and Rhodesian tourist destinations), but never to an extent that was anywhere near comparable to these two.
 
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