Surviving Emirate of Sicily?

What's the latest point that an Islamic Sicily could survive, and perhaps expand farther into southern Italy?

Realistically its position is too insecure to survive, for long, without being brought into vassalage. I mean Syracuse was neither a major player, why would Islamic Sicily be.
 
I mean Syracuse was neither a major player, why would Islamic Sicily be.
Islamic Sicily, IIRC, was, actually, a formidable economic powerhouse in the Medieval Mediterranean, with a growing textile industry, a strategic position for trade, and a good diversity of crops. Some travellers recorded that the capital of the emirate, Palermo, was quite prosperous.
Therefore, i think the Emirate of Sicily could have survived with better luck and experience from its rulers.
 
Islamic Sicily, IIRC, was, actually, a formidable economic powerhouse in the Medieval Mediterranean, with a growing textile industry, a strategic position for trade, and a good diversity of crops. Some travellers recorded that the capital of the emirate, Palermo, was quite prosperous.
Therefore, i think the Emirate of Sicily could have survived with better luck and experience from its rulers.

They'd need to find a steady source of timber that dosen't cut too deeply into the islands disproportinately orchard crop dependent agriculture... a stronger trading partner in the south of France perhaps?
 
They'd need to find a steady source of timber that dosen't cut too deeply into the islands disproportinately orchard crop dependent agriculture... a stronger trading partner in the south of France perhaps?

None of which they can really get due to Ghazis and Slave raiding.
 
Islamic Sicily, IIRC, was, actually, a formidable economic powerhouse in the Medieval Mediterranean, with a growing textile industry, a strategic position for trade, and a good diversity of crops. Some travellers recorded that the capital of the emirate, Palermo, was quite prosperous.
Therefore, i think the Emirate of Sicily could have survived with better luck and experience from its rulers.

But economic prosperity does not necessarily directly map into a military strength and, being rich, was also a disadvantage because it was making emirate an attractive target of the neighbors and foreign adventurers. While the local mounted archers had been cultivated even by the Hohenstaufen rulers, they were neither numerous nor effective enough to provide a successful resistance to the "heavier" Europeans.
 
What's the latest point that an Islamic Sicily could survive, and perhaps expand farther into southern Italy?

It could expand into Southern Italy before the Normans arrive.

It can however remain longer in power in Sicily IF it doesn't get divided among various Emirs. If the Emir doesn't die in Stillo during the battle with the HRE the Kalbids remain stronger in power.

The Normans had easy picking with Sicily divided among the Moors.
 
Here's the problems with Muslim Sicily: Not only does it have all the same problems as al-Andalus in the form of a racially-hierarchical society with a small elite minority ruling over an unhappy majority and subsisting on an economy mainly fueled by pumping cash crops into the market, it doesn't have the critical mass of population or proximity to the Maghreb to be able to dominate the huge pools of manpower in North Africa. Muslim Sicily can't do what al-Andalus did and tributize Berbers to come in and act as hired muscle. Unlike al-Andalus, Sicily has the misfortune of being right in the middle of the Mediterranean, square in the centre of trade routes the Italian communes will want to exploit. As such, the area is going to get a great deal of attention from avaricious Italian powers who want the island, or at least control of the Mediterranean trade market. If the Normans don't arrive and go after it, someone else will, probably the Greeks or the Italian merchant cities.

The other problem here is that Muslim Sicily really had no support back the other way. When the Aghlabids had their capital in Ifriqiya, sure, it was fine. When the Fatimids were based at Mahdia, so was the Fatimid navy, which could easily nip across the Med and support them. But when the Fatimids moved to Cairo, the navy went with them, and the Zirids could never quite figure out what a boat was. The Fatimids are far more likely to move to Egypt than to stay in Mahdia; Egypt is wealthier, more prestigious and more populous, and demands their presence far more than Ifriqiya does. Once the Fatimids move, the lifeline for Kalbid Sicily goes away.

One way to buy Sicily more time might be an alternate Fatimid uprising in which they skip over Egypt and instead form a dominion consisting of Ifriqiya, the Maghreb, Sicily and al-Andalus - basically a maritime Fatimid empire with interests in protecting its European cash cows and a fleet set up in Tunisia capable of ferrying an army of Berbers over the water to confront its enemies. But it doesn't rectify the ultimate issue: All it will take is one mistake or major moment of weakness at the wrong time in order for the Christian powers to move in on Sicily, especially with no hope of support from some other Ismaili Shia realm. That's always been one of the key problems of the frontier Islamic realms in Europe: There are lots of sharks circling, with little hope of help for the Moors in the boat.
 
Top