Speaking as someone who proposed a scenario somewhat similar to this one: No, I don't think so, because the circumstances which my proposition required are not retained in the scenario proposed by the OP.
The circumstances in which I suggested that such an alliance was likely required an authoritarian conservative nationalist Germany dominated by the Prussian military/aristocratic class and a tsarist Russia that wasn't so much "surviving" as "destroyed fairly similarly to OTL, then came back with a White Russian victory in the Russian Civil War with a very great deal of luck, and even then only by the skin of its teeth, and even then as more like a stratocracy than a true resurrection of the Romanov autocracy". Crucially, Russia keeps most of the pre-WW1 Russian Empire but Poland is an independent republic that has been friendly to France, the UK and the USA since before it became clear who was going to win the Russian Civil War.
In that case, you have a Russian regime and a German regime which are reasonably ideologically similar and, more importantly, both very focused on Poland in particular; Russia would want to regain the only land it lost in Europe, and Prussian aristocrats would be more interested in the lands lost by Prussia than the lands lost by other parts of Germany, and, with their more traditional approach instead of Hitler's pan-Germanist radicalism, might not even go after the Sudetenland and Austria at all, and at least will be less keen on those lands than on Poland. As a result, you don't have the stream of provocations (by which I mean the Anschluß, the Sudeten crisis and the final fall of Czechoslovakia) that led to the guarantee to Poland in OTL, and in that case I think Russia and Germany might well re-partition Poland between them with Washington DC, Paris and London too timid to protect Poland—though quite possibly Russia and Germany would fall out later.
If the Russian Empire survives, rather than falling apart and then just about managing to come back as a stratocracy but not getting back all its old territory (as in my scenario), it keeps Poland. If Germany is ruled by fascists rather than reactionaries, there will be the pan-Germanist attitudes and stream of provocations that led to the guarantee to Poland in OTL. It's difficult to see what such regimes would have in common, especially since such a powerful Russia would be interested in expanding in Eastern Europe, not so much against Germany as against other states weaker than Germany (in particular the remnants of Austria-Hungary, and the Balkan peninsula) where Germany would be likely to oppose Russia. Indeed, a Russian Empire that survived the First World War and never abandoned the Triple Entente might well receive some territorial gains from Germany (Posen added to Russian Poland, perhaps, and quite possibly more, such as Royal or even Ducal Prussia) as well as Galicia from Austria-Hungary, so Germany would not be well-disposed to such a Russia. I think that such a Russia would be more inclined to keep to old alliances in the face of a renewed German threat.