Survival prospects of a Catholic Anglo-Scottish union?

The POD here is that Henry has a son with Catherine of Aragon, and hence England never goes Protestant. With English support for Catholics north of the Border, Scotland remains Catholic as well. Nevertheless, the butterflies still flap about such that the House of Tudor goes extinct in 1603, and the King of Scotland inherits the throne.

What would be the survival prospects of this united kingdom? IOTL England and Scotland bonded against the Papist Menace emanating from across the Channel, which obviously wouldn't be a factor ITTL. On the other hand, England and Scotland still had cultural similarities, even without the Protestant factor; many Lowland Scots spoke a dialect of English, for example.

So, would there still be a lasting UK in this scenario? Or would the two countries end up separating again?
 
Fabius Maximus said:
, post: 12480760, member: 70051" IOTL England and Scotland bonded against the Papist Menace emanating from across the Channel, which obviously wouldn't be a factor ITTL. On the other hand, England and Scotland still had cultural similarities, even without the Protestant factor; many Lowland Scots spoke a dialect of English, for example.

Well, they will bond together against the heretic menace, especially against the Dutch across the seas. And they will also bond from their shared loyalty to the Catholic faith. And Ireland would be more loyal since there would be no religious barrier.

Let's construct a scenario.

Let's say Henry's son Henry, born in 1511, would survive. He would die in 1545, before Henry VIII died, leaving two sons. The eldest is named Edward, and would be born in 1533, the younger would be Henry, Duke of York, and would be born 1538.

Let's say James V died in 1542 with only a daughter, Mary Queen of Scots. Now, Henry Duke of York, would marry Mary Queen of Scots in 1565 instead of Henry Stuart, Lord Darnley, in 1565. Now this Mary dies of childbirth giving birth to their only child, James in 1566, who becomes James VI of Scotland. Henry Duke of York would die before the birth of his son due to a hunting accident.

Edward VI, born in 1533, would die in 1603 without any children due to marrying a barren wife. So his nephew James VI would be king both of Scotland, and England.
 
I like your dynastic scenario, although I'm not so sure about the two nations bonding together over their shared Catholicism. Most of Europe was Catholic anyway, so the countries' both being Catholic would have been less of a big thing than their both being Protestant. Plus, the Dutch wouldn't really be as threatening as the Spanish were IOTL. Maybe if France ended up going Protestant...
 
Well, OTL James I managed to only vaguely hold together a personal union only for it to fall to pieces in the hands of his son.

I think one of the key issues here is you have several minority regencies (Edward VI - fourteen when his Grandfather dies in 1547, Mary Queen of Scots - a baby in 1542, and James VI - a year old when he becomes King of Scotland in 1566). Regencies were very unstable in the early modern period and your scenario would entirely depend on who is behind the scenes pulling the strings. One example - Mary's mother will still presumably send her to France for her education and try to marry her off to the French Royal Family - a popular move at the time that had little to do with England's Protestantism.

Besides this, keeping Henry VIII married to Catherine of Aragon does not butterfly away Protestant presence in England or Scotland in the period. By the 1530s the Protestants in both countries are going to be sizeable minorities which the Catholic Regimes will have to address. Chances are, with so many minorities floating around, they might end up turning the two nations into something akin to the French Wars of Religion. For example, your POD does not butterfly away John Knox and look what trouble he caused for Mary OTL!
 
your POD does not butterfly away John Knox
But it might butterfly away some of his effect. Knox was captured by the (Roman Catholic) French when St. Andrews' Castle fell in 1547. It was the English crown which secured his release, with Edward VI of England making him one of the special preachers sent to Berwick-upon-Tweed to 'propagate the Reformation'(1). Without a protestant England, there's a good chance Knox never returns to Scotland or, if he does, his return is a lot later.
(1) http://www.britannica.com/biography/John-Knox
 
But it might butterfly away some of his effect. Knox was captured by the (Roman Catholic) French when St. Andrews' Castle fell in 1547. It was the English crown which secured his release, with Edward VI of England making him one of the special preachers sent to Berwick-upon-Tweed to 'propagate the Reformation'(1). Without a protestant England, there's a good chance Knox never returns to Scotland or, if he does, his return is a lot later.
(1) http://www.britannica.com/biography/John-Knox

That is true, but it equally implies a butterfly net that, thirty six years after the POD, still sees Knox being captured at St. Andrews despite all the other changes ITTL!
 
That is true, but it equally implies a butterfly net that, thirty six years after the POD, still sees Knox being captured at St. Andrews despite all the other changes ITTL!
Agreed - that specific event probably wouldn't happen. However, what I was trying to imply (badly, sorry) was that without a friendly Protestant nation to the south to help him, I'm not sure that Knox would have same influence he did OTL. In fact, without Protestant England, I'd suggest that butterflies might well stop him being influenced by the Protestant cause in the same way as he was OTL, so he might never amount to anything ITTL.
Notwithstanding that, the POD doesn't butterfly Protestantism in either Scotland or England, something both nations would have to deal with. As you said above, this might well turn into something akin to the French Wars of Religion or something related to the OTL Thirty Years War.
 
Oh no, I got what you meant! Sorry, I was being a bit flippant in my reply!

But yes, you're right. Probably Knox's star never rises to the same degree. But the growth of Protestantism in Scotland will still be a major problem for Mary both as infant and then as Queen.
 
Besides this, keeping Henry VIII married to Catherine of Aragon does not butterfly away Protestant presence in England or Scotland in the period. By the 1530s the Protestants in both countries are going to be sizeable minorities which the Catholic Regimes will have to address. Chances are, with so many minorities floating around, they might end up turning the two nations into something akin to the French Wars of Religion. For example, your POD does not butterfly away John Knox and look what trouble he caused for Mary OTL!

Maybe, although even in OTL the majority of Englishmen were probably Catholic until well into the reign of Elizabeth. The English Reformation was largely top-driven, the result of Henry's need for an heir and later Edward's and Elizabeth's own religious convictions, rather than being due to any popular pressure.
 
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