Survival of the Soviet Union
- No Brezhnev Stagnation (1)
- No invasion of Afghanistan (2)
- No Chernobyl (3)
- Reconciliation between the PRC and the USSR (4)
- No Matthias Rust Incident (5)
- No Second Arms Race (6)
- Less US competition (7)
(1) Simple, Leonid Brezhnev dies of a heart-attack after six months of being General-Secretary of CPSU. Alexey Kosygin takes over. He slowly switches the emphasis from heavy industry to consumer goods and introduces other (economic) reforms. He dies in 1980 and Yuri Andropov becomes the new General-Secretary. Butterflies make Andropov last until March, 1985 (no useless Chernenko tenure). He’s followed by Gorbachev.
(2) This can be easy too, Daoud Khan’s government survives and manages to arrest Nur Muhammad Taraki, Hafizullah Amin and Babrak Karmal of the PDPA instead of dabbling about as in OTL. The KGB will probably still try an uprising, but it will probably not lead to the all-out slugfest between Soviet troops and the Mujahdeen in OTL.
(3) Can be easy handwaved away with the help of butterflies.
(4) This could be possible if Hua Guofeng manages to hold power instead of being ousted by Deng Xiaoping. Good morale buffer for the Soviets. If Option 2 fails and the Soviets still send troops to Afghanistan, then maybe the PRC will send troops and vehicles together with the Soviets.
(5) Probably the easiest of them all. Either Rust’s plane never takes off, or Soviets jets intercept his plane and force him to go back. In any case, as long as he doesn’t land in front of the Kremlin and embarrassing the Soviets in the progress.
(6) Although Reagan’s arms buildup was not as effective as some sources claim, it was still a money drain for the Soviets. Right, so Hinckley aims a little better and kills Reagan in 1981, launching George Bush to the presidency. I assume Bush follows a more or less “Nixonian” approach to the USSR. This could lead to a second Détente.
(7) The US needs a ''setback''. Something that makes competition with the USSR less desirable. Mass race riots in major US cities should do the trick. The POD could be in 1957 when there's a shootout between federal troops and national guardsmen over the desegeration thing in Arkansas.
***
With all of these options combined and with some extra luck and butteflies, then maybe the USSR would still be with us. What do you think?