Survival of the Soviet Union

MrHola

Banned
Survival of the Soviet Union

- No Brezhnev Stagnation (1)
- No invasion of Afghanistan (2)
- No Chernobyl (3)
- Reconciliation between the PRC and the USSR (4)
- No Matthias Rust Incident (5)
- No Second Arms Race (6)
- Less US competition (7)

(1) Simple, Leonid Brezhnev dies of a heart-attack after six months of being General-Secretary of CPSU. Alexey Kosygin takes over. He slowly switches the emphasis from heavy industry to consumer goods and introduces other (economic) reforms. He dies in 1980 and Yuri Andropov becomes the new General-Secretary. Butterflies make Andropov last until March, 1985 (no useless Chernenko tenure). He’s followed by Gorbachev.

(2) This can be easy too, Daoud Khan’s government survives and manages to arrest Nur Muhammad Taraki, Hafizullah Amin and Babrak Karmal of the PDPA instead of dabbling about as in OTL. The KGB will probably still try an uprising, but it will probably not lead to the all-out slugfest between Soviet troops and the Mujahdeen in OTL.

(3) Can be easy handwaved away with the help of butterflies.

(4) This could be possible if Hua Guofeng manages to hold power instead of being ousted by Deng Xiaoping. Good morale buffer for the Soviets. If Option 2 fails and the Soviets still send troops to Afghanistan, then maybe the PRC will send troops and vehicles together with the Soviets.

(5) Probably the easiest of them all. Either Rust’s plane never takes off, or Soviets jets intercept his plane and force him to go back. In any case, as long as he doesn’t land in front of the Kremlin and embarrassing the Soviets in the progress.

(6) Although Reagan’s arms buildup was not as effective as some sources claim, it was still a money drain for the Soviets. Right, so Hinckley aims a little better and kills Reagan in 1981, launching George Bush to the presidency. I assume Bush follows a more or less “Nixonian” approach to the USSR. This could lead to a second Détente.

(7) The US needs a ''setback''. Something that makes competition with the USSR less desirable. Mass race riots in major US cities should do the trick. The POD could be in 1957 when there's a shootout between federal troops and national guardsmen over the desegeration thing in Arkansas.

***
With all of these options combined and with some extra luck and butteflies, then maybe the USSR would still be with us. What do you think?
 
Last edited:
Interesting ideas, MrHola!

You know, I now spontaneously wonder, would the C&C: Red Alert series have been released in an ATL where the Soviets survive, or would it have been considered inappropriate in that TL...? :rolleyes:
 

MrHola

Banned
That's an interesting question. Personally, I think Red Alert would still exist, but instead of a full-fledged product, it will be more of a mod.
 

MrHola

Banned
Perhaps:D. That could make Red Alert even better. I never played HoI though, but I've heard great stories about it.
 
I can't believe you're hijacking your own thread, MrHola. :p

Please get back on topic because it'd be really interesting to have a discussion about the Soviet Union surving, perhaps even a TL.
 
I'd imagine this Soviet Union to be less totalitarian that in OTL, with considerably more perestroika and glasnost, but applied more gradually. Ofcourse, the population would be alot more happier with the better and more consumer goods and a better economy.

One thing that would also aid the Soviet Union is to prevent the War in Afghanistan, which also was very costly and strained the economy, and was very costly to Soviet morale. Heck, if that never was a war, Osama bin Laden might be butterflied away.
 

MrHola

Banned
I can also see tensions between the USSR and the PRC starting to rise again during the Gorbachev Era. China, which in ATL is still pretty hardcore communist, is probably going to take offense at the more “Glasnost” oriented reforms of the USSR. Result; a second Sino-Soviet Split. What happens then? I can see a reconciliation (and perhaps even an “alliance of convenience”) between the USA and the USSR in order to quarantine the Chinese.

Is this ATL going to be an improvement of OTL? Yes and no. The world in this ATL is bi-polar instead of the unipolar political (and military and economic) dominance of the US. Wether you see this as a good thing or a bad thing depends on you’re perspective. Probably no or an delayed disintegration of Yugoslavia; fear of the Soviets is what kept the country together. Perhaps Ante Markovic can come in handy here…

In the worst case scenario with China is that the PRC gradually transforms into “North Korea-on-steroids” :eek: which is a horrifying thought.
Next up is terrorism. The KGB is a ruthless organisation that is very good at stomping out terrorism. I assume that most of the terror-acts are aimed at the “Atheist dogs” of the Soviet Union. However, the Islamic extremists are not alone; seperatist movements will probably be itching for independence and will probably launch campaigns of their own. The worst-case scenario is that the Soviet Union will probably be faced with same situation as the UK in the ‘60s/’70s with Northern Ireland.

What do you think?
 
Last edited:
is there anyway (of course there is our own time line has alien space bats rampageing all over the place) that we can have all those reforms and soviet political survival but still a defeat in afganistan?

I think it would be an intresting timeline that just as things are really warm fuzzy and peaceful (americans got messed up in vietnam, soviets in afganistan...so both nations unofficialy call it even) a completly random,monsterous (maybe more even more energized then in otl at frustration in being just pawns between two infidels) semi-unified (same structure as otl, but less infighting)global islmic insurgancy pops up, armned by clueless state actors thinking there playing by the old rules
 

Goldstein

Banned
I think it would take an eighth point: The Soviet Union has to adapt itself to the third industrial revolution, if that's possible. A less bureaucratic and more informatized planned economy could improve the system enough to guarantee its survival.
 
I think even if the soviets survive like otl china that communesism would still be considerd a failed god although maybe not as severe as otl....but the fact still stands that much of the third world will see the soviets as "selling out" to western capitalism and there will be openings for alternative movements like
islamic theocracy and "social liberation"social democracy mixed with libertarianism.....like the zapatesta's)

unless of course were tlking about a 1930 or earlyr pod
 
Survival of the Soviet Union

- No Brezhnev Stagnation (1)
- No invasion of Afghanistan (2)
- No Chernobyl (3)
- Reconciliation between the PRC and the USSR (4)
- No Matthias Rust Incident (5)
- No Second Arms Race (6)
- Less US competition (7)

(1) Simple, Leonid Brezhnev dies of a heart-attack after six months of being General-Secretary of CPSU. Alexey Kosygin takes over. He slowly switches the emphasis from heavy industry to consumer goods and introduces other (economic) reforms. He dies in 1980 and Yuri Andropov becomes the new General-Secretary. Butterflies make Andropov last until March, 1985 (no useless Chernenko tenure). He’s followed by Gorbachev.
Or no the Praque Spring.
 
Interesting ideas, MrHola!

You know, I now spontaneously wonder, would the C&C: Red Alert series have been released in an ATL where the Soviets survive, or would it have been considered inappropriate in that TL...? :rolleyes:

I remember a flight simulattor (F15) where I could take on the Russkies in the Murmansk area, central Europe, Vietnam, middle east and the Perisan Gulf so I don't think they would be too shy making Ivan the enemy.
 

MrHola

Banned
And what about US politics? Reagan get’s the bullet in 1981, launching George Bush to the presidency. I doubt that US-USSR will be as tense as they were in OTL before Gorbachev (“Evil Empire” speech, the “outlawing” of the Soviet Union). The economy remains “meh” without Reagan’s tax cuts for the rich. For the sake of the timeline, I have Walter Mondale with Gary Hart winning the 1984 election. Mondale and Gorbachev would probably get along very well and would bring the two nations closer to each other and they’ll reduce reduce their respective countries nuclear stockpile.

The Berlin Wall will probably not fall or it will fall on a later date as I can’t see Mondale or Bush exerting the same amount of pressure on the Gorbachev as Reagan, combine this with no war in Afghanistan and no Chernobyl. Mondale would be defeated by a Republican in 1992, suggestions would be nice.
 
Nice discussion, but I've always wondered if Yugoslavia might not have survived if the USSR hadn't started disintegrating.

Czechoslovakia might stay together as well.

Any possible leaders that might arise in Yugoslavia as a result of the POD since it goes back to the late 1960s/early 1970s?

Can't help on the Republican candidates in 1992 after the POD of Reagan being killed and Bush and Mondale being Presidents. Anyone who knows more about Democratic and Republican history might be be able to help.
 
Survival of the Soviet Union

- No Brezhnev Stagnation (1)
- No invasion of Afghanistan (2)
- No Chernobyl (3)
- Reconciliation between the PRC and the USSR (4)
- No Matthias Rust Incident (5)
- No Second Arms Race (6)
- Less US competition (7)


With all of these options combined and with some extra luck and butteflies, then maybe the USSR would still be with us. What do you think?
I think it is even easier than that. Introduce "economical liberalization first, political freedoms later" policy instead of Gorbachov's attempt to give freedom of speech and whole nine yards to the country operating within confines of ineffective and inflexible regime, and trick is done. Extra bonus is butterflying Yeltsin (whose lust for power and desire to settle the scores with Gorbi lead to Belovezha instead of signing of new Agreement of Union by everyone but Balts), and if it is given, rump Union will be reality of today.

But, if you wana discuss your ideas:
- No Brezhnev Stagnation (1)
Kosygin is kinda sorta overused, but his reform, although far from the magic pill, could pave the way to parallel systems (planned heavy industry, mining, transportation and utilities, market-driven system for consumer goods, trade, services)
- No invasion of Afghanistan (2)
That's gonna be tough. Americans started to supply Islamist guerillas before Soviet invasion and Soviets were less than thrilled to see one more American puppet on their backyard.
- No Chernobyl (3)
That's easy. Chernobyl was a direct consequence of Perestroyka, Bryukhanov and Co. forgot that laws of physics are even less forgiving than Stalin's GULAG. Butterfly Perestroyka away, and Chernobyl will follow.
- Reconciliation between the PRC and the USSR (4)
Economy-minding USSR will find shared values with Deng's China easily enough. Anyway, USSR and PRC mostly stopped being enemies sometimes between 1980 and 1985 IOTL. No great love at this point, but no blind hostility either.
- No Matthias Rust Incident (5)
Rust was direct consequence of Perestroyka. There's very popular conspiracy theory saying that Rust was followed by Soviet AA from the border but nobody had da balls to order him restrained. But even if this is face-saving legend, he could not do what he did, if AA operators knew (as it was during Cold War) that missed aircraft invading Soviet air space means anything from dishonorable discharge (if one is lucky) to an appointment with shooting squad.
- No Second Arms Race (6)
IOTL Soviets had several clever tricks in their sleeve to counter new arms race with "asymmetric answer". I would say arms race wasn't breaking point.
- Less US competition (7)
Not sure it is important.
 
Top