Survival of the Peru-Bolivian Confederacy

Peru-Bolivia was a short-lived confederacy between Peru and Bolivia, hence the name. It existed from 1836 to 1839 and was led by Andres de Santa Cruz. Is it possible for it to survive and maybe even become a dominant force in South America? Also, what would be the main difficulties faced by such a huge Confederation?
 
The problem with the confederation was that it was perceived as a threat to both Argentina and Chile. It also had the problem that Independent Peru and Chile were in a economical rivalry and with the formation of this confederation the Chileans thought that this was a great threat to their economical interests. It should also be noted that North Peru (Part of the Confederation) saw the Confederation as the most serious threat to their economic interests.

Now that being said it might be possible for it to survive if it were to win the War of the Confederation over Chile, but that doesn't guarantee its survival. It is going to have to centralize eventually and this might be hard as i don't know if the north-Peruvians would want this. Unfortunately i dont see it becoming the dominant power of South America unless something goes terribly wrong in Brazil, but it will be one of the more powerful nations of South America.

What is the biggest problem faced by the confederation? I think it suffers the problem of most confederations. Lack of unity. Another problem might be that the Supreme Protector is also the president of Peru which caused problems with the Peruvians. If it wants to survive it must have a system in place that the Supreme Protector cannot be a president of either 3 of the Republics.
 
Now that being said it might be possible for it to survive if it were to win the War of the Confederation over Chile

What POD do you think would be most suitable for a victory in the War of the Confederation? I understand that the Chilean-Peruvian army won against the Confederates at Yungin and this caused the dissolution of the Confederation. How could a victory in this battle be achieved by the Confederates?
 
What POD do you think would be most suitable for a victory in the War of the Confederation? I understand that the Chilean-Peruvian army won against the Confederates at Yungin and this caused the dissolution of the Confederation. How could a victory in this battle be achieved by the Confederates?
Maybe avoid the Chile-peruvian landing in Confederation territory? destroying the fleet or damaging it severely?
 
caveat to my post: it's been a long while since I read up on the Peru-Bolivian partnership, so a lot of my knowledge may be wrong.

I seem to recall that the P-B pissed off the European powers. Don't recall exactly why, but probably the usual: they refused to just be used and abused and get little in return.

I also seem to recall that Argentina was supposed to be their friend, narrowly avoided joining the congregation, but backed out because Chile wasn't attacking A, so why get involved. (I could be totally off on this one, but I'm too lazy to go back and look it up, but that's the way I remember it)

Why they lost: simple. they were disjointed, had no backing, and Chile came from nowhere (they were the poorest of the area/former Spanish regions) with some military prowess, and backing.

What would have happened if they had won? hard to see much change. geographically, they had no where to go. They are not a threat to Brazil. Northern Argentina, maybe, but they're not going to conquer huge regions of A. Other than that, northern Chile and equador are about it. They are NOT forming some huge monolith power entity. Obviously, it changes a lot of the local politics, but it's nothing more than a blip in world history.
 
You might have several PODs for this one. If you want to play it safe, handwave a storm and sink Ramón Freire’s expedition to Chile. This is really what gave Diego Portales the perfect cause to turn bellicose against the Confederation (and btw, his allegations of Santa Cruz’ support for Freire’s planned coup were never validated.) If you want to be risky, you can use later PODs: Santa Cruz arrests the entire 1st expedition (not likely knowing him) thus depriving the Chileans of vast amounts of manpower and munitions used in the 2nd expedition; he approves the proposed invasion of Chile in late 1838 after the defeat of the Argentines; he shatters part of the enemy army when they were evacuating Lima, also in late ’38, and re-embarking to flee north, as many of his generals begged to do; or as others stated, a victory in Yungay.

A triumph in Yungay, will eliminate the prestige, and practical strength, of the Restauradores, and depending how many opposing Peruvians are left, the war might linger on for a few months. After that…it’s over.

As for the future, you might have it vie with Brazil for SA’s #1 spot. Remember that at this point, large tracts of land that later became Brazil’s are still nominally Confederate. Knowing Santa Cruz, not an inch will be handed over freely, like several Bolivian and Peruvian governments later did IOTL. Also, Peru is about to enter the guano bonanza that financed incredibly amounts of development (and corruption) in the country for the next 30 years. Even later, came the saltpeter boom for both Bolivia and Peru. In short, the Confederation won’t be cash strapped.

And if Santa Cruz (with his superb administrative skills) manages to have the Confederation’s founding law approved, you have a Chief Executive that remains in power for 10 years, guaranteeing enough stability for the project to solidify.
 
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