Survival of the Hapsburg Monarchy in some form?

Deleted member 94680

I've often wondered if there was any chance, with a suitable POD, that the Hapsburg Monarchy could survive in some form?

I've wondered if the Austrian, Croat, Slovene and Bosnian elements would unite into a "Austroslavia" and the Hungarian, Czechoslovak, Serbian, Polish and Ukrainian parts would go their own way? Is this possible outside of ASB and any form of Hapsburg-wank?

I see mentions during the dissolution of the Austria-Hungarian Monarchy of the Czech revolt? I can't find any books that go into detail on the final events in 1918, does anyone have any good recommendations?
 
I assume we're talking about a scenario where WWI still happened and the Central Powers still lost roughly like in OTL. In that case, the Habsburg dynasty only really has a chance to keep its throne within core Austria itself, and maybe Hungary.
"Austroslavia" is not exactly ASB, but I believe it's very unlikely. Unlike the Serbian population, the other South Slavs didn't entirely hate and mistrust the Habsburg monarchy - but they were still very frustrated with it, and growing less patient every day. By 1918, much of Croatia was in a state of anarchy, and the Austro-Hungarian army was not in shape to suppress it; even less to suppress it in a politically useful manner.

If it's a very early CP defeat (the war is literally "over by Christmas" or so), then the monarchy could survive in a more recognizable form - minus the Italian, Serbian, Romanian, Polish and Ukrainian parts. There is some chance of later breakup, but the Habsburgs may still stay around as a ruling dynasty.

And if it's a CP victory, the Habsburg empire will, of course, survive in the short term; but later probably implodes under the weight of its own contradictions and increasingly rabid policies.
 
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Perhaps in a cp victory the empire still breaks down into component nations and Austria itself joins the German empire federation. Like Bavaria Austria would retain it's monarchy and national army.
 

Deleted member 94680

I was thinking something more along the lines of the breakup takes longer than OTL and the Croats and Slovenes realise joining a Serbian dominated Union wouldn't be in their best interests. The majority of the Bosnian areas could join the surviving Hapsburg realm as they had loyalty to the Military? IIRC there were special Bosniak units in the KuK Army?

Perhaps in a cp victory the empire still breaks down into component nations and Austria itself joins the German empire federation. Like Bavaria Austria would retain it's monarchy and national army.

I can't see the WAllies allowing that under any circumstance. It makes Germany too strong in regards the European balance of power. It'd almost certainly be a casus belli for France.
 
If the CP wins will there be WAllies, and what would they be able to do to a victorious Germany if Austria volunteers to join their federal empire?
 

Deleted member 94680

If the CP wins will there be WAllies, and what would they be able to do to a victorious Germany if Austria volunteers to join their federal empire?

A CP victory isn't going to result in the complete destruction of the WAllies, that's just too much to expect, given the OTL exhaustion of the CP.
If there's a 'CP Versailles', Germany would be emboldened and extended in the East but a CP victory would mean an Austrian Victory too? Why would a victorious A-H break down? If they win, their Military would by implication be stronger, their ruling elites proved correct. All this points to a surviving A-H, maybe even extended from Russian territory, but that's unlikely.
 
I was thinking something more along the lines of the breakup takes longer than OTL and the Croats and Slovenes realise joining a Serbian dominated Union wouldn't be in their best interests. The majority of the Bosnian areas could join the surviving Hapsburg realm as they had loyalty to the Military? IIRC there were special Bosniak units in the KuK Army?

The KuK regiments of Bosnia were recruited from all local nationalities. AFAIK there were no purely Bosniak units.

Many Croats suspected they might not like the future Yugoslavia, but many also knew they did not like the present Habsburg state. Croats carried out 3-4 assassination attempts against Habsburg governors in the 1912-1914 period. Also, the Croatian leadership of OTL was aware that, if they don't join a Serbian-dominated union, they might lose huge chunks of territories (both willing and unwilling) to Italy and Serbia.

So somehow neutralizing Italy might be a necessary precondition to keep the Croats (+Slovenes and maybe Bosniaks) in a rump Habsburg monarchy.
 

Redbeard

Banned
Most important for the Habsburg Monarchy surviving is its army staying intact. The Monarchy was in some very deep crisis during its very long history, but as long as the army stayed intact it survived, and as soon as the army dissolved (October 1918) the Empire dissolved too.

For this also follows that I'll claim, that if the only PoD is the A-H staying intact (the CP still loose) there is a fair chance of the Habsburg Monarchy surviving relatively intact. It was not so that independence of the various parts of the Empire was just a boil waiting to burst but rather sentiments utilising an opportunity. Comprehensive reforms towards a more federal construction would probably be needed to have it survive long, but why not? The Hungarians would be the strongest opposition, we might even see a civil war. But even such wars can be won.

The best PoD for the Habsburgs would however be federal reforms well before WWI. The best chance is Austria not loosing the war in 1866, but that might bring a lot of other PoDs making the ATL 20th century very different.
 

Deleted member 94680

The KuK regiments of Bosnia were recruited from all local nationalities. AFAIK there were no purely Bosniak units.

Many Croats suspected they might not like the future Yugoslavia, but many also knew they did not like the present Habsburg state. Croats carried out 3-4 assassination attempts against Habsburg governors in the 1912-1914 period. Also, the Croatian leadership of OTL was aware that, if they don't join a Serbian-dominated union, they might lose huge chunks of territories (both willing and unwilling) to Italy and Serbia.

So somehow neutralizing Italy might be a necessary precondition to keep the Croats (+Slovenes and maybe Bosniaks) in a rump Habsburg monarchy.

Do you have a good source for those facts? I'm not challenging your assertions, just would like to read up on it more. I'm trying to figure out a realistic POD to have the Hapsburgs survive and as much info as possible would be useful.
 
Do you have a good source for those facts? I'm not challenging your assertions, just would like to read up on it more. I'm trying to figure out a realistic POD to have the Hapsburgs survive and as much info as possible would be useful.

For the national make-up of Bosnian infantry regiments: here (just Wikipedia, I'm afraid).

For assassination attempts on governors of Croatia: first two attempts are mentioned in Croatia, A History by Ivo Goldstein (here on page 105). I think this is a decent source for Croatian matters in general.

I can only find Croatian-language sources on the third assassination attempt. The fourth attempt is mentioned here (page 110).

For the danger posed by Italy's territorial claims to Croatia's in case there is no Yugoslavia: briefly mentioned in Croatia, A History (page 113). The 1915 Treaty of London also paints a picture of that possibility.
 
A CP victory isn't going to result in the complete destruction of the WAllies, that's just too much to expect, given the OTL exhaustion of the CP.
If there's a 'CP Versailles', Germany would be emboldened and extended in the East but a CP victory would mean an Austrian Victory too? Why would a victorious A-H break down? If they win, their Military would by implication be stronger, their ruling elites proved correct. All this points to a surviving A-H, maybe even extended from Russian territory, but that's unlikely.

Not really, any victory past 1917 mean that once the gun are silent all the pre-war problem will quickly resurface with the addition of the enourmous number of deaths and destruction, the economic turmoil and social upveal. Just because you had win the war don't mean that you resolve anything or even something, expecially if we are talking of the most destructive conflict know to men till that moment; if some example is needed just see Italy and France OTL.
Regarding the military and the elite, well the first heavily supported by the Germans and the overall perfomance is lucklustre and the second, as any other elite in Europe post war, had his prestige greatly diminished, if not totally discretited, due to allowing the Great War starting
 
Not really, any victory past 1917 mean that once the gun are silent all the pre-war problem will quickly resurface with the addition of the enourmous number of deaths and destruction, the economic turmoil and social upveal. Just because you had win the war don't mean that you resolve anything or even something, expecially if we are talking of the most destructive conflict know to men till that moment; if some example is needed just see Italy and France OTL.
Regarding the military and the elite, well the first heavily supported by the Germans and the overall perfomance is lucklustre and the second, as any other elite in Europe post war, had his prestige greatly diminished, if not totally discretited, due to allowing the Great War starting

I agree, the difference with victory is that the Empire will be strong enough to have a reasonable amount of control over its demise. Perhaps a further split like that which made Austria in AH with the next step being the countries in the triple/quadruple/quintuple Monarchy leaving it and engaging more with the Mitteleuropa on their own terms. Austria (as an Australian 'Austria' is so hard to type fast) can either do the same or jump on board with Germany, however the Hapsburgs remain as a constitutional monarchy in Austria.
 

Deleted member 94680

Not really, any victory past 1917 mean that once the gun are silent all the pre-war problem will quickly resurface with the addition of the enourmous number of deaths and destruction, the economic turmoil and social upveal. Just because you had win the war don't mean that you resolve anything or even something, expecially if we are talking of the most destructive conflict know to men till that moment; if some example is needed just see Italy and France OTL.
Regarding the military and the elite, well the first heavily supported by the Germans and the overall perfomance is lucklustre and the second, as any other elite in Europe post war, had his prestige greatly diminished, if not totally discretited, due to allowing the Great War starting

That's OTL. In an ATL where the CP win the situation would be different. One would imagine less CP soldiers died as their offensives would have been more successful, the elites image would be less tarnished as the War would result in a victory. Things would be different.
 
That's OTL. In an ATL where the CP win the situation would be different. One would imagine less CP soldiers died as their offensives would have been more successful, the elites image would be less tarnished as the War would result in a victory. Things would be different.

Only in the dream of the elites; sorry as said any late victory mean that the troubles at just at the beginning. By 1917 there are already been enough dead and destruction for anyone and the image of the enstablishment, everywhere, has gone down to the toilet, a very costly win will not change anything about it.
WWI has not been a 'simply war' but the butchering of entire generations of men, even the victorious empires had suffered radical changes, political instability and violence, new ideology had born and the old had faded; frankly here and at this stage, military victory is just a step above 'meaningless', solidity of the nation-state system is the key (as the fate of the Russian Empire had demonstrated) and the people in Wien know perfectely this, for this reason the Hapsburg Emperor tried to launch his peace initiative as he thought that if the war continued, winning or losing the empire was history.
 
I've often wondered if there was any chance, with a suitable POD, that the Hapsburg Monarchy could survive in some form?
Is an interregnum allowed? Otto von Habsburg was very anti-Nazi, IIRC during the Anschluss German units were unders to shoot him on sight. After WWII when Austria is trying to pull their "Oh we weren't Nazis, we were their first victims" schtick maybe some folks realise that a having a widely known anti-Nazi and pan-European as head of state might help sell this even more effectively so invite him back to become a constitutional monarch?
 
I am very fond of a real historical past where the European monarchies that were lost survive. I'm always a tad annoyed when I see quotes from the current Habsburgs, including Karl, that they're quite happy now.
 
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