Survival of Sibir Khanate?

The Sibir Khanate was probably the only instance of an existing, independent, Siberian state. But we all knew what happened when the Russians came.

So, what are the best scenarios/PODs for it to survive in any shape or form, and become the basis of a lasting Siberian nation?
 
Well although I don't think this is impossible, there is the difficulty that Siberia is inevitably going to be attractive to the Russians because it promises the opportunity to expand the lucrative fur trade, which was the primary driver of Russia's eastward expansion.

I guess you could have an effective leader fortify the Urals, but the Russians still have access to cannon that the Khanate of Sibir can't match.

The easiest way is probably to prevent Russia's dominance of the step on cis-Ural steppe. If they never conquer the Golden Horde and the Khanate of Kazan, Sibir can grow and consolidate, possibly adopting technologies and bureaucracy from a mix of Chinese and Turkic Central Asian sources. Once Russia gets to, say, Astrakhan, it's too big for the Siberians to realistically resist.
 
I don't think Sibir was Siberian, except in very vague geographic terms. It was ruled by a Muslim Turko-Mongol elite and didn't represent any indigenous Siberian traditions of statecraft.
 
The Russians really wanted to expand their borders and IMO the Sibir khanate's best chance for survival, at least initially, would be as a vassal state. If ITTL, there were still at Time of Troubles then that would be an opportunity for Sibir. However, time would be needed in order for them to stand a chance and to acquire the necessary equipment to conduct war-time operations.
 
Maybe if they had settled a little further east (e.g on the Yenisei), the Russians would have a bit of a harder time, logistically, invading Sibir.

Alternatively, Kuchum and co. (or an ATL Khan) could have fled east to start their new Khanate, instead of the disastrous decision to go south. There's also Mongolia proper that way (Northern Yuan), so at least they'd be among friends.

Or really, just don't piss off Russia in the first place. It seems like a lot of the blame falls on Kuchum for going fanatic and trying to convert the natives and violently repel foreign influence. Yadigar was the Khan before Kuchum and advocated peace with the Russians, which sparked Kuchum's challenge and eventually victory. It was his subsequent raids that led the Cossacks to retaliate. Maybe if Yadigar remains Khan, things wouldn't be so disastrous for Sibir. They'll probably wind up being vassals to Russia, but still retaining at least some kind of independence and thus survival.
 
If you go further east you could butterfly a Sakha Khanate into existence!

Sibir existing with Russia as its suzerain might be fun. Maybe Russia's interests are more in the Baltic Sea, and some leader decides to farm a lot of the administration in the area out to local rulers, provided they get their cut of the fur trade.
 
If you go further east you could butterfly a Sakha Khanate into existence!

Sibir existing with Russia as its suzerain might be fun. Maybe Russia's interests are more in the Baltic Sea, and some leader decides to farm a lot of the administration in the area out to local rulers, provided they get their cut of the fur trade.

You might get that with a more successful, Ivan the Terrible. He managed to make peace sooner in the Livonian War that marriage proposal with Sweden with his son Ivan and Erik's XIV's daughter Virginia. If the Oprichniki were any indication Ivan only cared about loyalty, and not so much the background or religion of his subjects. In theory, it could work if Sibir plays along.
 
If you go further east you could butterfly a Sakha Khanate into existence!

Sibir existing with Russia as its suzerain might be fun. Maybe Russia's interests are more in the Baltic Sea, and some leader decides to farm a lot of the administration in the area out to local rulers, provided they get their cut of the fur trade.
Imagine if they went even further and established a Chukchi Khanate. That would be an interesting cultural combination ;)
 
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