Supply and Confidence

This is a joint production by BG and I. Please enjoy!


“The voters supplied us with the confidence we needed, if not the confidence we wanted.”

- Michael Gove, June 2010


FIONA BRUCE: Welcome back to BBC’s coverage of Election Night 2010. I’m Fiona Bruce. We now return to the Morley and Outwood count, where Schools Secretary Ed Balls is in an unexpectedly close race with his Conservative opponent Anthony Calvert. Mr Balls is down by approximately 350 votes. Balls’ defeat would be a Portillo moment for Labour tonight. We will be watching Morley and Outwood very closely through the evening. The Conservatives have targeted him as part of what has come to be known as their “castration strategy”, similar to the decapitation strategies used by the Lib Dems in ’01 and ’05.

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JEREMY PAXMAN: we are now seeing a nearly 9% swing to the Conservatives in Morley and Outwood. If this trend continues then it is very likely that Balls will lose his seat to Calvert-

DAVID DIMBLEBY: Sorry to interrupt Jeremy, but BBC can now project that Elwyn Watkins has been elected MP for Oldham East and Saddleworth on a 12% swing. Let’s go to the count, where Phil Woodas will be conceding defeat shortly.



Nazir, Gulzar, Christian: 212 votes. Bentley, David, 1720 votes. Ali, Kalshif, Conservative: 11,773 votes. Woolas, Phil: 14,041 votes. Watkins, Elwyn: 14,425 votes. I, the returning officer, duly declare Elwyn Watkins elected Member for Oldham Eastwood.

LIB DEM GAIN FROM LAB


“I thank all those who voted in allowing me the great honour of serving as your MP and pledge to repay your trust in me. Now let us work together to build a better Britain.”

PAXMAN: That was the count in Oldham East and Saddleworth, where Phil Woolas has just conceded defeat. We now return to Morley and Outwood, where Ed Balls continues to trail by a little over 500 votes. This is going to be a long night here, while both Labour and the Tories are keeping their fingers crossed for a victory.

BRUCE: Let us take a quick look at some other constituencies, first of all Swansea Central where Labour candidate Geraint Davies and Liberal Democrat Peter May are in an unexpectedly tough fight for this seat. With one short-lived exception, Swansea West has been Labour since 1945 and last went Liberal nearly 80 years ago, in 1931. Davies is still ahead by less than 100 votes, but there are still a dozen polls left to go before counting is complete. Let’s go to Labour headquarters.


North Queensfury, 0352

JF: Prime Minister, it’s not looking good in the Midlands now that Woolas has lost and Balls is likely to lose. Our only hope would be that we can team up with the Lib Dems to keep Cameron out of here.
GB: Don’t talk rubbish. You know perfectly well that the bastard would demand my departure no matter what the fucking conditions were. You also know which traitor they would want here instead.
JF: That other Dave.
GB: Precisely. But let’s not discuss hypotheticals until all the results are in I’m not in the mood for that now.
JF: Balls just lost, he’s talking on Sky now.
GB: Bloody hell. Cue the BBC twats blathering on about Portillo moments for about 5 minutes before going back to the count.
JF: That’s their MO Prime Minister.
GB: Get Ed on the line right now.
JF: Yes sir...

Prime Minister Gordon Brown and Schools Secretary Ed Balls touring Balls' then-constituency of Normanton, October 2009.

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Official UK General Election 2010 Thread

Wozza: And Balls slips under the waves. Good riddance.
RB: Agreed. The voters finally kicked him to the curb
BG: Seconded.
Meadow: Don’t gloat you two. He isn’t quite what the Torygraph and Fail make him out to be.
RB: Thug, enforcer, same thing. If he had redeeming qualities it would be one thing. You’d be hard-pressed to find a quorum in caucus that likes him. Not to mention a perfect example of a machinist.
Scott_B: He takes the fight to Cameron, that’s why many Labourites respect him. That’s over now.
Lord Roem: Chaps, sorry for interrupting this rather lively discussion :)o) but Hampstead and Kilburn is about to declare.
RB: Apologies, your Lordship. *Fingers crossed*

BRUCE: Standby for the Hampstead and Kilburn count.

“Alcantara, Gene, Independent: 91 votes. Osmond, Tansim, Tansim Osmond to the Commons: 123. Moore, Victoria, British National Party: 328 votes. Nielsen, Magnus, UK Independence Party: 408 votes. Campbell, Beatrix, Green: 759 votes. Fordham, Edward, Liberal Democrat: 16,111 votes. Jackson, Glenda, Labour: 17,246 votes. Philp, Chris, Conservative: 17,343 votes. I, the returning officer, hereby declare Chris Philp duly elected Member for Hampstead and Kilburn.”

CON GAIN FROM LAB

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DIMBLEBY: “A Conservative gain from Labour with a swing of over 10%, one of the largest as yet this evening. Glenda Jackson is now thanking her constituents for the “great privilege of serving you over the past 18 years” and announcing that this is the end of her political career. And a distinguished career it was indeed, serving as an MP since 1992 and a prominent actress before entering politics. We now go to Conservative headquarters.

The mood here is decidedly optimistic even if mid-level party sources are telling us that a majority is increasingly unlikely given the current seat counts. David Cameron is in his Witney constituency and is expected to appear in a few hours once the results are in. You can see the onlookers outside cheering each time a Conservative projection is made.

PAXMAN: Thank you. Edinburgh South is about to declare.

“Burgess, Steve, Scottish Green: 881 votes. Howat, Sandy, Scottish National Party: 3,354 votes. Hudson, Neil, Conservative: 9,452 votes. Murray, Ian, Labour: 14,674 votes. Mackintosh, Fred, Liberal Democrat: 15,386 votes. I, the returning officer, duly declare Fred Mackintosh elected Member for Edinburgh South."

LIB DEM GAIN FROM LAB

No 10, 0534

JF: We’re bleeding badly from both sides Prime Minister. Looks like a bloodbath... what did Balls have to say?
GB: The usual mixture of sadness and anger that all defeated candidates feel. Yvette won massively, and she was just next door. Tell Sue to keep an eye out for anything suspicious. If I find out that anybody is planning something, let’s just say they’ll wish that I only did to them what I did to Alistair a few months ago. You know the people- yes, people- that I’m talking about.
JF: Right on it Prime Minister.
GB: Find Alistair, there’s something I wish to discuss privately with him.
JF: Yes sir.

Conservative HQ, 0545



DC: Looks like we’re on our way to government, doesn’t it George?
GO: Yes, but whether Brown resigns immediately remains to be seen. Still, we need a backup plan in case something is cooked up behind closed doors.
DC: Are you thinking what I’m thinking?
GO: Gordon Brown, or did I guess wrong?
DC: No, you guessed correctly. I expect to see a madcap of leaking over the next few hours. Continue planning, but let’s also sit back and enjoy the ride: remember Napoleon’s maxim.

SKY NEWS HQ, 0617
ADAM BOULTON: Here are the results from Dudley North.


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“Kevin Inman, National Front: 173 votes. Ken Griffiths, British National Party: 1901 votes. Malcolm Davies, UK Independence Party: 3264 votes. Mike Beckett, Liberal Democrat: 4,035 votes. Ian Austin, Labour: 14,152 votes. Graeme Brown, Conservative: 15,059 votes. I, the returning officer, duly declare Graeme Brown elected Member for Dudley North.”

CON GAIN FROM LAB

AB: We now move onto Great Grimsby, where Austin Mitchell is trying to retain the seat he has held for the past 28 years. The count is just about finished...

No 10, 0658

GB: Convene a Cabinet meeting for 2; we need to discuss the next steps. Not just P&P, the full Cabinet. No one is to make any public statements.
NB: Yes sir.


“So what’s your plan at Cabinet?” “Say that we’ve lost the electorate’s confidence and therefore must vacate the premises. I don’t see any other way of interpreting our results; the popular vote was nearly as bad as ‘83, or even ’18. In any case, it would be fruitless to... you know. We have to go into opposition and start rebuilding. No need for unduly rushing things if that happens. Might not go over well, but we have to take the risk.” “You need support for something like this.” “Is there anyone you know who would support the alternative? Alan, Alistair, Peter, Harriet aren’t among them."

- As recorded in Ed Miliband's diary, 07/05/10

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BBC1 Studio, 0941

DD: Here are the current standings: Conservative 301, Labour 234, and Liberal Democrat 50. Popular vote estimates: roughly 38% Conservative, 28% Labour and 24% Liberal Democrat. This is the largest swing from Conservative to Labour since 1979, and we can now project a hung Parliament, since it is mathematically impossible for the Conservatives to form a majority government with the seats remaining.

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Cabinet Room, 2 PM

GB: A great fucking catastrophe is what this is. I see 2 options: cobbling something together with the minor-party blowhards and that posh bugger Clegg, or going into opposition.
HH: It wouldn’t last more than a few months at best, and for what? Five more months of Cabinet salary? Six months of being subjected to Chinese water torture by the media?
PM: Everyone repeat after me: February 1974. We’d be crucified by Murdoch and his gang for trying to hang on.
GB: Don’t be so such a passive-aggressive sod Peter! If you think I’m acting like a sore loser, say it to my goddamn face, will you! We are allowed to exhaust our options before turning over power, and I’m not giving No 10 to the toff one second earlier than necessary.
DM: I also think we should go into opposition as soon as the count is done. A quick handover, get it over with by tomorrow, Saturday latest.
GB: You’d like that, wouldn’t you? Then again, swots always like when things go exactly as planned.
AJ: Let’s not be unduly hasty here. I propose that we wait for the count, and then reconvene later if that’s all right with you Gordon. Can everyone be here at 7?
HH: Yes.
AJ: Absolutely.
PM: Yes.
JS: I’ll be here.
DM: As will I.

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As the Milibands left No 10, David placed a call he’d been waiting for all day, only to get the message machine. Bloody hell, the one time we need to talk and he’s not there...

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Looking forward to it. Maybe u and I can do a collaboration timeline one day. That A Disturbance of Fate timeline that I started, but abandoned.
 
Looks great! Will we see what we should have got in 2010 - a confidence and supply Tory-Lib Dem deal?
 
Another 2010 U.K. election timeline? Interesting.

Loving all these 2010 timelines, great start guys. :)

Thought we'd jump on the bandwagon ;)

Your Gordon Brown isn't very believable I'm afraid, but otherwise very interesting.

I'm taking personal command of Gordon for the next update, so I'll do my best to make him sound more Gordon-ish!

Looks great! Will we see what we should have got in 2010 - a confidence and supply Tory-Lib Dem deal?

Well, you might. At first.
 
For want of Another Timeline...

Ok, I'm interested to see where this goes, of course. The title "suggests" that for whatever reason, there won't be a full-blown Coalition between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.

Now, there are two main ways this can happen - either David Cameron decides on the Friday afternoon to spurn any talks with Nick Clegg and opts to go it alone and form a minority administration. He knows neither Labour nor the LDs are in any shape for a second election quickly so he will have a period of grace BUT the tough decisions needing to be taken will be hugely unpopular and the risk will be that the opposition will pull the plug at the time of greatest unpopularity (say after 12-18 months).

Second option is the talks begin but collapse or don't reach a full agreement. Perhaps Cameron will reject even a referendum on AV, perhaps Clegg will insist on STV and nothing else on the ballot paper. The talks fail, the recriminations fly and the Conservatives spend the next 12 months blaming Clegg for causing instability etc.

I'm less inclined to the possibility that the Lib Dems would be prepared to support the Conservatives on supply and confidence but nothing more. Without stating the obvious, what would be in it for them?

I nearly considered a timeline where Cameron, perhaps with 5-10 more seats, decides to go it alone and form a minority - if that's the route you're going, I'll be fascinated to see the outcome.
 
SKY NEWS HQ, 1830

Adam Boulton: With the last counting having ended a few minutes ago, we now have the final seat count for you: Conservative 314, Labour 243, 64 Liberal Democrat and 29 for other parties. Sky News has learned that the Prime Minister is currently holding a Cabinet meeting that is expected to end somewhat later than usual, presumably to discuss what will happen next. There are inter-party talks due to be held tomorrow, though so far we have no details of what these will entail either.


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Cabinet Room, 1900 (E+1)

Harriet Harman: It looks like we’re going to have to stitch something up with the minor parties since the Tories outnumber both us and Clegg. The Unionist parties are in Cameron’s back pocket, so that leaves the SNP, Lucas, Plaid and the SDLP. But even if this could be arranged, we wouldn’t even have a majority: 320 to 314. I don’t see how such an arrangement would make it even to Christmas, unless anyone has any suggestions. All Cameron has to do is win over even one of the Unionist parties and we’re still outnumbered.

Gordon Brown: We have to try nonetheless, I’m not leaving before all the options are fully exhausted.

Alistair Darling: I’m sorry, Gordon, but I’m afraid I don’t see how this works either. The maths is quite simply nonexistent. Nonetheless, if you want to try- Clegg’s not going to make it easy. At the very least we’d have to hold a referendum on AV, plus a few nuts and bolts in policy. Who will speak to the Libs for us?

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Andrew Adonis: I’m willing to talk to Clegg.

Peter Mandelson: Let’s take some preliminary soundings. If the conditions are pure blackmail, then we can reconvene and discuss the next step. There’s no point in sticking around if we’re going to be held hostage while we’re at it.

GB: Right. Ed, Peter, Yvette, Andrew: you’re our team. Let them know we’re interested in talking- and talk to Clegg first. Christ knows that man loves nothing more than flattery. We reconvene tomorrow at 1 to discuss progress. That will be all for now.


BBC NEWS HQ, 2019

DIMBLEBY: Both the Tories and Labour have just issued statements that they are “exploring all options to ensure inter-party cooperation in the next Parliament.”

PAXMAN: Some sort of deal between the parties is underway. Given the maths, the odds of the Tories making a deal are greater than a so-called “rainbow coalition” which faces the same problem Heath did in February ’74: even with all these partners onboard Labour will still not command 326 seats, the minimum required for a Commons majority.

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BRUCE: They still might try a deal, which would likely require either party to enact or at least consider part of the Liberal Democrats’ platform. The price will likely be steep. We have just learned that Cabinet is going on longer than had originally been advertised. No word from the Tories yet on their whereabouts.

CCHQ, 2030
William Hague: If we hypothetically came to an agreement for supply and confidence, what would the outline of your conditions be?
Chris Huhne: Electoral reform, rollback of Labour’s surveillance state, taxes and some investment in rail infrastructure and other green measures.
WH: Forget electoral reform; however the rest is quite possible at the moment.
Danny Alexander: Will you at least consider electoral-
WH: No, and that’s our final answer on the subject. I’m sorry, but the Party simply wouldn’t countenance it.
CH: Decentralisation? Increased powers for local Government?
WH: In our platform as well, so it will definitely get a full and fair hearing from David on that.
DA: We’ll get back to you.


Undisclosed location, 2214
David Laws: ... among other things, enactment of part of our tax manifesto, enactment of the Pupil Premium, electoral reform, rail investment and a full rethink on your policies on crime and surveillance.
Peter Mandelson: You want us to repudiate one of the core achievements of the past 2 terms?
DL: With respect, Peter, you want a fourth term, don’t you? Or am I mistaken?
PM: Electoral reform- an AV referendum- I can agree to. Same for pupil subsidies, rail investment and we’ll try and focus the cuts on the largest economy within Britain. You suffered enough during the Tory years.
DL: There is one final condition though, one that can’t be legislated.
PM: Which would be?


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Ed Miliband: “Hello?”
NA: “Change in plans. Cabinet meets tomorrow at 11. Door will be locked if you arrive late.”
EM: “I can only guess why.”

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Cabinet Room, 1104, May 8 (E+2)
Gordon Brown: Good morning everyone. Our teams have been working hard all night, and I think we could be approaching a deal
(Several Cabinet members raise their eyebrows or cast one another knowing looks)
Peter Mandelson: Here’s what we have so far. Lucas and the nationalists want more pork and the SNP some tax-raising powers-
Yvette Cooper: which we can negotiate with Salmond if necessary.
PM: But there is one clincher, something that can make or break the whole deal. Namely, Gordon, you have to leave No 10. Clegg will not agree to anything with you here.
GB: That little fucking tosser thinks he can just order me out?! Who the fuck does he think he is? Jesus Christ, if he were here I’d…
Darling: Who does he want here?
PM: Clegg will deal with David and only David. There would have to be a hastily called election- bugger all of a mess.
David Miliband: I have zero interest in this scheme. Being in No 10 for 6 months before another election which we’re likely to lose, having to triple-check every vote before a division is called? No thanks.
Johnson: We have to keep the idea alive for at least a bit longer.
YC: I also think we should go into opposition. Can anyone explain the merits of trying to stitch this deal together, or at least explain why it would turn out any differently than David just described?
Ainsworth: No.
Darling: No
Harman: No
PM: If we can agree to move out now, it can still make the news before 6-
GB: I think you lot are forgetting who’s in charge here. You’d all be nowhere without me- fucking nowhere! We’ll move out when I want to go, Peter, not you!


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Conservative HQ, 1552
DC: Ease off a bit on the tax policy- we’re not enacting their entire plank on the subject. Everything else is fine, but we have to wait for Brown to finally realize his time is up. Hopefully that happens before Monday.
GO: I don’t see anyone as particularly eager to take up that poisoned chalice for the few months it would last before we got in. Plus the public outrage...

From the BBC’s The Cameron Years (First broadcast January 7th 2018)
William Hague: The last few hours were particularly crucial. We were hammering down the final details of our agreement with the Liberal Democrats- with tax policy being a sticking point until just before deadline. Fortunately for our party, we managed to reach a compromise just after 7. At the time we did not know of the internal deliberations within the Labour Cabinet, though what eventually emerged was quite to our satisfaction.

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Andrew Adonis: I managed to line up Caroline Lucas and Peter Mandelson secured the nationalist parties. However we still could not come to an agreement due to Clegg’s demand that David Miliband replace Gordon, something which David adamantly refused to do and as for Gordon, well, let’s just say apoplectic would be understating the extent of his rage.
David Laws: The deal-breaker was our demand for Brown’s resignation, which we knew he would never entertain. Miliband also reportedly refused to even consider the idea of replacing Brown, and with that we just had to wait for Brown to realize the inevitable and resign. We didn’t have to wait long.

Cabinet Room, 2021
Gordon Brown: I called you all here for one reason: I have made up my mind to resign. Tomorrow I shall inform the Queen to call for Cameron- we are going into opposition.
Mandelson: There was little more we could do, given the circumstances.
Ed Miliband: The Tories apparently haven’t finished their negotiations, so that buys us our final 12 hours.
Darling: Also, what do we do about leader-?
GB: Jesus, Alastair, not now. We can wait until this is over, and then decide. I will leave in good time, and no one will pressure me into leaving a moment before I see fit. Do I make that crystal fucking clear?
Johnson: Yes Gordon.
DM: Crystal.
Cooper: When will we tell the press?
GB: In the morning: a release in 12 hours as we mentioned earlier.

CCHQ, 2344
GB: Dave, we finally came to an agreement and got what we asked for- nothing excessive. A friend of mine in SKY, citing “unnamed senior Labour sources” says Brown is going to resign tomorrow and request that HM call on you to form the government.
DC: Is that agreement typed up yet? Not for the media, but for our own purposes?
GB: The typists should be finished within the next half-hour or so. Once that’s done we’ll leak the news and pre-empt Brown. Maybe we can goad him into getting his knickers in a twist in the most public manner possible?
DC: (Chuckles) Well, that’d certainly be worth the entertainment. Do it, but not before I see the final draft.
GB: Be back in a bit.

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BBC HQ, 0030

PAXMAN: This is BBC Breaking News: we have just received a copy of the supply and confidence agreement between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, who will agree to support the Tories in exchange for enactment of several major Liberal Democrat policies.
BRUCE: Downing Street is due to issue a statement within the next 10 minutes, and we will inform our viewers of its contents.
DIMBLEBY: It looks like the Prime Minister had the decision made for him.
PAXMAN: Here is the official statement from Downing Street: “We have received word of the agreement reached between Messrs Cameron and Clegg. In view of earlier Cabinet discussions and these latest developments, the Prime Minister intends to resign at 8 AM and request that Her Majesty the Queen ask Mr Cameron to form the next government.” Ladies and gentlemen, within a few hours we will see 13 years of Labour government draw to a close.
BRUCE: What I find interesting is that there is no mention of the Labour leadership. Mr Brown has not given any intention that he intends to resign as Labour leader.
PAXMAN: Perhaps he is waiting for the morning to announce the deal. It seems pretty unlikely that the Labour Party would want him staying on as leader after leading them to that defeat!


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Where exactly did the extra 500,000 Tory votes that have pushed them over the line come from and how come with so many extra votes they didn't secure a majority?
 
Where exactly did the extra 500,000 Tory votes that have pushed them over the line come from and how come with so many extra votes they didn't secure a majority?
Chiefly a stronger fight in a few crucial marginals, plus greater exposure for Calvert's so called "castration campaign" allow the Tories a slight extra edge that is enough to net them a handful more seats, and, whilst not quite pushing them over the line, is enough to make their position ITTL a lot stronger even than OTL.

314, you don't need the LibDems on 314, you just need the DUP, remember, the Shinners don't turn up.
Indeed, but Cameron is eager to be seen to open to inter-party cooperation, knowing voters like the idea. The idea of relying entirely on the DUP for votes seems distinctly risky to him, hence the Supply and Confidence deal with the Liberal Democrats instead. The Tories here haven't really given up anything important to them, like European renegotiation- nor have they adopted things they hate, like a referendum on the electoral system or Lords reform. Rather, they've picked up a few of the Liberal Democrat policies that were popular with the Tory grassroots anyway, and are going to run with them.

Since I seem to be fast becoming King of the Electoral Map, here's the country of "Supply and Confidence". Spot the difference to OTL, it's not large, but, as we see, it's crucial.

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Just skimmed the first post, and a few questions:

1. It looks like the Conservatives have gained, at the expense of Labour and the Lib Dems up slightly.

Where does the POD start? Is Gordon a fool in the debates and says something silly? Does Cameron do better (and Clegg much the same)?

Is there ANOTHER bigotgate, or does Brown just run Bigotgate worse?

2. Who is JF? I can't guess.

I agree Brown doesn't seem very 'Brown-like'. He may throw things, but I didn't think swearing was his thing? And did he get back to No 10 that night? Can't remember?
 
1. We'll have a flashback segment to explain the POD, hopefully in the next installment. I can say this: there is a gaffe which serves as the POD, and it isn't Brown who gaffes.

2. Justin Forsyth, his comms director.

3. Brown not swearing? That's like saying spin isn't Alistair Campbell's thing.
 
314, you don't need the LibDems on 314, you just need the DUP, remember, the Shinners don't turn up.

In fact, I suspect it will be 315. As noted, the postponed ballot is still postponed (Its got a little ^ symbol from the Wiki page). 315 + DUP = Majority good enough.

EDIT - Checked Map. Wirral South went Blue. Never understood why it didn't OTL anyway!
 
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