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This is the last one of the series on, "tryin' a little appeasement/restraint in 1914"

What if Tsar Nicholas decides that the country is not ready to risk war over Serbia in 1914, no matter how humiliating standing aside may be. The Tsar is prepared to accept serious political backlash from enraged super-patriots and emboldened leftists. As far as Serbia is concerned, the Tsar may allow volunteers to go fight for Serbia give aid to conventional resistance, and aid to guerrilla resistance after the highly probable Austro-Hungarian victory.

But it will not declare war on Austria or threaten the Central Powers with a mobilization.

The Tsar can take or leave some alternatives to respond to Austrian aggression. For example, ramping up military build-up more, attempting to form a diplomatic front with other Balkan states besides Serbia to draw a line in the sand at a distance (for instance Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Turkey and/ or Montenegro). Maybe a Russian troop or fleet presence could be part of the deal to countries who might be “next” in the Centrals path could be tried (ie, Montenegro or Romania).

It could even try to gain Entente support to try to soften any Vienna-imposed peace terms (the riskiest of the moves).

But no mobilization against Austria-Hungary at the start of the Serb war.
What are the most likely near and mid term consequences
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