...was moving against Russia, rather than for it?
The most commonly expressed view in the secondary literature is that time was on Russia's side, with a particular emphasis on its greater strength with the completion of an armament program in 1917.
Wiking, the point you made about the Austrians and Germans getting stronger over the next year is not anything I had seen until this last year, when reading Terence Zuber's "the Real German War Plan". That was the first time I ever saw time as being described as on Germany's side.
Glenn, your point on the Russians being anxious to fight before the build up of the Ottoman fleet is one I had not seen before the last year. I read about it in Sean McMeekin's "Russian Origins of the First World War."
I'm not saying that time WAS on the side of the Central Powers; in many ways it was not. However Germany and Austria-Hungary were not stagnant in their military development. Germany passed their army bill, which is mentioned in several books, including this one:
http://www.amazon.com/The-Kaisers-Army-Technology-1870-1918/dp/0195143353
However the Russians were developing more: they were expanding their army and upgrading their artillery while also expanding their rail network.
Ceteris paribus Russia and the Entente would be ahead if all we counted was Russian expansion, Romania switching sides (which they would likely do after their last German born monarch dies in October 1914), Italy and Serbia are more recovered from their recent wars, and the limited expansion of A-H and Germany of their military power.
However not all things remain equal.
Britain was going to pass on the ships purchased by the Ottomans, which would massively upgrade their naval might in the Black Sea and force the Russians to either divert spending to their Black Seas fleet or accept that their dominance was now over in this area. Also the Ottomans were rapidly recovering from the Balkan wars and would be much more formidable from 1916 on, not to mention that they were also upgrading their rail network, including the Berlin-Baghdad railroad, which would have opened up major supply lines across the Ottoman Empire from the Central Powers, as well as enhancing their economy, which in turn translates into increased military power.
Beyond that Britain is also going to grant Home Rule to Ireland in 1914. This is going to cause lots of violence similar to what was experienced after WW1 IOTL with the Irish war for independence. This won't be resolved by 1916, which would likely sideline Britain from continental involvement.
Plus Germany would abandon their Schlieffen Plan, which means they will start spending on their border fortifications with France and probably Belgium. Russia is now the big boogey man, so Germany is going to re-write their war plans to work with Austria, rather than fight two separate wars and let their ally get smashed by Russia.
France is not going to be able to breakthrough German defenses in the West thanks to their shitty 'Offensive a Outrance' doctrine, which IOTL cost them 400,000 dead invading Alsace, Lorraine, and the Ardennes, and their light field pieces, which are useless for fighting entrenched infantry and fortifications, and fighting an offensive war is very unpopular in liberal, anti-military France, especially with the Socialists.
Plus Britain isn't going to fight an offensive war with Germany, especially if Belgium isn't invaded by Germany, which it won't be in a future war without the Schlieffen Plan, which will be scrapped in 1916.
Overall the resulting loss to Russia in fighting a war in Europe with the retiring of the Schlieffen Plan means that the strength of the Central Powers would increase in the East much more than the upgrades the Russians would have by 1916. France would be socially torn apart if they declared war on Germany to help Czarist Russia (especially as the secret treaty with Russia is not known to the public) and would be stymied by the very unfriendly terrain and defenses that exist in Alsace-Lorraine even if the Germans are outnumbered there. Britain wouldn't be in the fight, meaning Germany isn't blockaded and is therefore much stronger economically. Loss of imports has been calculated as costing Germany about 50% of her warmaking potential. They will be able to easily out material Russia in the 'Materialschlacht' that modern warfare was by the 20th century. Plus the new German siege artillery would be available in numbers by 1916 unlike IOTL in 1914 when there were only 2 of the 420mm guns. There is also likely more of the highly mobile and advanced Skoda 350mm mortars, as Austria was upgrading and modernizing her artillery park, which was projected for completion in 1916.
Beyond 1916 things are harder to predict militarily. Britain is going to become less hostile to Germany as the conservative government's leadership changes over the Home Rule Crisis that will develop. France is going to stagnate militarily, especially as the Loi de Cadre is going to be repealed in 1915-6, though they will get 150 modern howitzers, but still have no fortress buster artillery.
Russia will strengthen militarily, but will stagnate too into the 1920s, as the government becomes less stable over labor strikes, which were getting worse every year and several were being bloodily broken IOTL in August 1914 by the Cossacks. Technologically they will fall behind Germany because of their badly organized economy and government, as well as the vast illiteracy, poverty, and lack of education. Germany's technological talent pool is much deeper than any other country in the world save the US, which is not spending on its military outside of the navy.
Frankly by the 1920s Germany will be ahead in technology thanks to their unique government system that directs economic investments and their heavy investment in education and their university system, which is the best in the world at that time. Austria is also well endowed there, but only in Austria and Bohemia. Probably by 1936 as we have mentioned in other threads Germany will have an atom bomb or at least be well on their way there. Russia won't be anywhere near there, nor will France or Britain, because of their limited military budgets and Germany's lead in physics. France will probably follow by 1938 and Britain by 1939.
Economically Germany will develop a stronger automotive industry and develop strong ties with the Ottomans to get access to that oil, which will be firmly tied in when the Berlin-Baghdad railroad opens finally in the late 1910s or early 1920s. Austria was developing faster economically than any other nation in Europe, even Russia (proportionally) and had vast untapped potentially economically. Especially if they open up the canal system linking the Danube to the Vistula and regulate a number of rivers in Bohemia and Galicia, vast quantities of cheap Russian raw materials will cause a massive economic boom in Austria and Bohemia, which will allow them to seriously compete economically, which, if political issues are sorted out by Franz Ferdinand surviving and sorting out the Hungarians, that will translate into major military expansion in Austria in the 1920s and 30s.