Sulla has Julius Caesar killed

In OTL, Caesar barely escaped being killed in his early 20s as he was the son-in-law of one of Sulla's opponents. It was only through significant political pull that Caesar's life was spared. Suppose it was not, what happens to Rome and the Republic?
 
In OTL, Caesar barely escaped being killed in his early 20s as he was the son-in-law of one of Sulla's opponents. It was only through significant political pull that Caesar's life was spared. Suppose it was not, what happens to Rome and the Republic?

Sulla rules until death then, as usual, the roman populace goes beserk whilst various generals try to pick up sullas vaccum...so either another dictator or the senate goes back to status quo and we see a earlier fragmented rome and fall thanks to the huge corruption and disunity alot of rome had at the time
 
Sulla rules until death then, as usual, the roman populace goes beserk whilst various generals try to pick up sullas vaccum...so either another dictator or the senate goes back to status quo and we see a earlier fragmented rome and fall thanks to the huge corruption and disunity alot of rome had at the time
Why would Caesar's death cause Sulla to rule until his death?
 
Sulla will rule and doe same as in otl, but the republic should survive a significantly longer time than otl.

Yes the period did see several strongmen, not all of them succsessfull. It all rather depends on what happes after Sulla reasigns. In otl Crassus and Pompey dismanteld the Sullan constitution, but if the sources are to be belived this partnership would not occur sans Ceasar. So would anyboyd else have enough power to do the same? That is unlikely. We might see one of Sullas supporters (and yes both crassus and pomepy fought with him), maybe lucullus, doing better than in otl.

Secondly we might not see the conquest of Gaul, somthing that was a bad thing for rome in my view (destroyd the atlantic trade network, difficult transport sistuation as its beyond the med, requierd large armed forces on the Rhine, and they proved to be quit rebelious after octavian, the romands did not addapt the Gali farming metods as well as the excess of slaves having a negative impact on the economy.
 
In OTL, Caesar barely escaped being killed in his early 20s as he was the son-in-law of one of Sulla's opponents. It was only through significant political pull that Caesar's life was spared. Suppose it was not, what happens to Rome and the Republic?

Caesar was really not important at that time, and he had very strong family and friendship connections among Sulla's closest friends, the same that co-opted him in the college of pontiffs 5 years after Sulla's death. And besides, Caesar was already (not the only one but a real one) a symbol of the reconciliation with moderate nobles and moderate populares that Sulla needed to succeed in his restitution of the republic and that most roman citizens wanted.
Caesar was the son in law of Cinna but he had not backed the extremist cinnans and marianists in 82 when they began slaughtering moderate nobles.

But anyway, let's assume that Sulla had Caesar killed in 81 BC.

Well, Sulla may then have lost some of his closest allies among the moderate nobility : the Aurelii Cottae, the Valerii Flacci (who controlled Transalpine and cisalpine Gaul at that time), and maybe also Publius Servilius Vatia and Mamercus Aemilius Lepidus Livianus (consul 77, and real brother of Marcus Livius Drusus the tribune of 91).

Which may have led to an alliance between Sertorius, Gaius Valerius Flaccus, Marcus Aemilius Lepidus (consul 78) and the cinnans/marians (Gnaeus Papirius Carbo and Gnaeus Domitius Ahenobarbus) who still controlled Sicily and Africa at that time.

In this situation, you must measure that it is on longer possible for Pompey to go chase down Carbo and Ahenobarbus with an army of 6 légions as he did in real History.

Maybe the whole sullan restoration is going to be jeopardized and even to fail.
 
In that case, what if we just make Caesar die while on the run. IIRC, he fell really ill at one point during that time.
The probable consequences:
1) There is no such a brilliant, swift and final conquest of Gaul. Instead the Romans might have several campaignes during 50 or 100 years with some serious setbacks. And the probable result might be the conquest of 50-70% at best of what Caesar conquered.
2) Pompey becomes the princeps and the emperor of the same kind as Octavian Augustus. These guys were very similar in how they dealt with high power.
And after that history goes on mainly as in OTL.
 
In that case, what if we just make Caesar die while on the run. IIRC, he fell really ill at one point during that time.

Even if he actually died from this illness (why since he had à solid constitution ?), it changes almost nothing to the problems Sulla risks to face : everybody is going to hold Sulla responsible since it's his proscription of Caesar that led to the young man to flee and fall deadly ill.
 
True, true.


Ok, here's a scenario. Let's say Caesar is killed by the pirates who capture him much later. Pompey is killed somehow (by Sertorius maybe?) and Crassus royally fucks up and gets killed in Carrhae like OTL.

Now I realize that if Caesar and Pompey are dead, Crassus is far less likely to attempt his unfounded conquest of Parthia, but lets assume for whatever reason, he does. Where does that leave the republic?
 
But then you are making a completly different timeline from the one you initially launche and going away from your own subject. You are transforming your question into "what if Caesar dies houng ?" and then in "what if none of the triumviri survive long enough to do what he did ?"

To this I will answer that the parts were more or less already written. Since at least Scipio Africanus' decisive defeat of Hannibal, the oligarchic republic struggled with the "too glorious" and "too popular" imperator/general.
Someone else would soon or late have performed very convincingly in the casting.

Why not going sticking to your initial subject ? It is a very interesting one.
 
Crassus and Pompey would continue to be rivals, the loose tunic is probably not as popular the goatees will still be on. This might leave Crassus in a better position and perhaps he is the one to invade Gaul to match Pompey's Syria conquest
 

RousseauX

Donor
The probable consequences:
2) Pompey becomes the princeps and the emperor of the same kind as Octavian Augustus. These guys were very similar in how they dealt with high power.
And after that history goes on mainly as in OTL.
Probably not actually, Caesar was pretty instrumental in the rise of Pompey as the only -alternative- power to himself. Without Caesar (assuming no other butterflies), the first triumvirate is never formed and Pompey has to contend with Crassus (who might not die in Parthia), the senate in the forms of men like Cato, and Cicero. The change in political landscape might very well mean someone else entirely becomes the princeps figure in Rome.
 
Pompey has to contend with Crassus (who might not die in Parthia).
Crassus is a crying shame as a general. He is an old fat cat.

the senate in the forms of men like Cato, and Cicero.
These guys would definitely come to terms with Pompey who was smart enough to show some respect to republican senatorial tradition. That's why he suited them much more than anyone else (especially Caesar).

The change in political landscape might very well mean someone else entirely becomes the princeps figure in Rome.
Fair enough. Someone else would definitely want to become number one in Rome.
But I doubt that he will make it against Pompeius Magnus.
This someone has to be on the level of Julius Caesar, which is quite unlikely.
And Pompey the Great had fair chances to win against Caesar himself till the very last moment. Even after Pompey's death his sons were a surprisingly serious threat to Caesar.

So, all in all, I would bet on Pompey and his very able sons. What a nice dynasty would they make!:)
 
Crassus was a good general, not a genious but à rather good one. He is the one who saved the sullan army at the Colline Gate battle.

Pompey was indeed smart but the optimates did not care about his smartness. They were stuborn : especially Cato. Their goal and favourite game was to destroy Pompey politically and nothing would stop them in having this Gulliver tied in chains. That is precisely because they were fully successful at this game that Pompey decided to ally with Crassus (although both of them hated each other) and with the talented ambitious called Caesar. Even Cicero discreetly bashed Pompey before the first triumvirate was formed.
 
Crassus was a good general...
Yep. ...when he was young.


Pompey was indeed smart but the optimates did not care about his smartness. They were stuborn : especially Cato. Their goal and favourite game was to destroy Pompey politically and nothing would stop them in having this Gulliver tied in chains. That is precisely because they were fully successful at this game that Pompey decided to ally with Crassus (although both of them hated each other) and with the talented ambitious called Caesar. Even Cicero discreetly bashed Pompey before the first triumvirate was formed.
The destiny of the Empire will be solved by two or three popular generals (triumvirate or duumvirate) who inevitably end up fighting each other in a civil war.
The 'stuborn optimates' will have to side with one of the generals and try to play one of them against the other(s). Most of these 'Ciceros and Catos' will die in the process like they did in OTL.
 
The destiny of the Empire will be solved by two or three popular generals (triumvirate or duumvirate) who inevitably end up fighting each other in a civil war.
The 'stuborn optimates' will have to side with one of the generals and try to play one of them against the other(s). Most of these 'Ciceros and Catos' will die in the process like they did in OTL.
Could all that infighting eventually lead to disintegration of the empire instead a successful move to autocracy as in OTL?
 

RousseauX

Donor
Crassus is a crying shame as a general. He is an old fat cat.
Which doesn't really matter unless Crassus goes off on a Parthian expedition or equivalent.
These guys would definitely come to terms with Pompey who was smart enough to show some respect to republican senatorial tradition. That's why he suited them much more than anyone else (especially Caesar).
They did OTL precisely because Pompey was an alternative to Caesar, if Pompey -is- the Caesar equivalent then they would not do it.

Fair enough. Someone else would definitely want to become number one in Rome.
But I doubt that he will make it against Pompeius Magnus.
This someone has to be on the level of Julius Caesar, which is quite unlikely.
And Pompey the Great had fair chances to win against Caesar himself till the very last moment. Even after Pompey's death his sons were a surprisingly serious threat to Caesar.

So, all in all, I would bet on Pompey and his very able sons. What a nice dynasty would they make!:)
Except for Caesar's death by Sulla would have being a political generation before Pompey ever achieved the status you mentioned, the butterflies might very well mean he die or being displaced by an alternative figure.
And Pompey the Great had fair chances to win against Caesar himself till the very last moment. Even after Pompey's death his sons were a surprisingly serious threat to Caesar.
Generalship only matters so much
 
Clodius and his gang have a shot at power after all he was very popular with the plebs but he could have been working for Crassus when he was stirring up trouble for Pompey and Ceaser
 
Crassus is a crying shame as a general. He is an old fat cat.

)

Unless he goes off on another military adventure (which is unlikely given he did so simply to match Caesar and Pompey) Crassus's generalship means little. This is the richest man in Rome we are talking about. He can, and did use his money, power, and influence, to get to the top.
 
If Caesar dies in 81, his daughter Julia hasn't been born yet has she? Wikipedia indicates a birth in 83 or 82, which would put her at age 28 at her death in 54. That seems too old by my recollection, off by a decade.

In 81, some of Sulla's top lieutants are:
A) Lucullus (around age 36, prominent family, excellent military man)
B) Crassus (rich, getting richer through Sulla's proscriptions)
C) Pompey (young at around 26, grasping for fame, rich from family lands around Picenum that also provide his own legions, but a not very distinguished family)
D) Metellus Pius (around 50, excellent family with traditional leadership in the Optimates)

These men will be significant players in Rome regardless of Caesar's death.


Things that have just or not quite yet happened:
1) Quintus Sertorius gains control of Spain and Sulla sends generals to defeat him, and have a hard time doing so.
2) Third war against Mithridates. It didn't start till 73. The start date might get butterflied by all sorts of events, but Rome and Mithridates were going to have a final war at some point.

The butterflies from the death of a prominent, though young, Roman like Caesar and not having Caesar involved in the political machinations in the Senate could change things large and small. The outcomes of the two wars above could be vastly different even though Caesar never played an apparent large role in either IOTL.


And who knows how his death places butterflies in the way of the next generation of significant leaders: Cicero, Cato the Younger, Clodius Publius, etc.
 
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