Sukarno remains in power

Anyway Sukarno could remain in power

What would Surviving Sukarno regime look like

What would be the impact on Indonesia's economy and foreign policy
 
Soekarno could've remained in power if he decisively moved against Soeharto who was then Army Chief.

OTL, in March 1966, Soeharto sent units to blend in with demonstrators outside the Presidential Palace so that these units could arrest Soekarno's most loyal/left-wing ministers during a cabinet meeting. The Presidential Bodyguard caught on to this and told Soekarno. Soekarno closed the cabinet and evacuated out of Jakarta in a panic. In the chaos of the situation, Soeharto managed to gain the initiative by gaining concessions from Soekarno most significantly in the form of a letter giving Soeharto emergency powers (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supersemar).

The POD would be Soeharto failing to take initiative, Soekarno realizing what's going on and then replacing Soeharto as Army Chief.

A surviving Soekarno regime would be dangerous. You have on the one hand the Indonesian Communist Party (PKI) sans the however many was killed in the massacres in late 65-early 66. On the other hand you'd have the Army minus Soeharto and Nasution (Another general more senior than Soeharto but who had been sidelined by this point). Soekarno's position domestically would unassailable. He'd be the only dominant political entity in Indonesia.

This is dangerous because everything would hinge on his charisma, now more than ever. Soeharto had a system. Centered around himself to be sure, but there was a system. There was a for example, a presidential line of succession under Soeharto. Soekarno doesn't even have a presidential line succession. The vice presidency had gone vacant for 9 years by the 1965-1966. It would be free-for-all when he dies.

Foreign policy-wise, Soekarno was taking a pro-Beijing position so he'd probably continue along these lines. I'm not entirely sure what'd happen with Confrontation. Economically, Indonesia would be in deep trouble. Soekarno is not an economic manager. The inflation was 594% in 1965 and Soekarno couldn't do and wouldn't do anything about it.
 
How long did Sukarno have to live, anyway? In OTL he died in 1970, but the Wikipedia article says that the decline in his health was the result of his not getting proper medical treatment when he was under house arrest. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukarno
 
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How log did Sukarno have to live, anyway? In OTL he died in 1970, but the Wikipedia article says that the decline in his health was the result of his not getting proper medical treatment when he was under house arrest. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukarno

He was diagnosed as having kidney stones in 1963-4 but did not want to get operated on. If he held on to power, Presidential level medical care could keep him alive past 1970 but how long before his kidneys start to fail him?
 
Sukarno was too close to the Communist bloc and was mismanaging the economy. Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe under his rule, there were goods shortages in Indonesia.
 
In the chaos of the situation, Soeharto managed to gain the initiative by gaining concessions from Soekarno most significantly in the form of a letter giving Soeharto emergency powers
Could Sukarno refused to give concessions ?
It would be free-for-all when he dies.
Would this lead to coups or a civil war ?

Foreign policy-wise, Soekarno was taking a pro-Beijing position so he'd probably continue along these lines. I'm not entirely sure what'd happen with Confrontation.
Would he switch to a pro-soviet position if he lives long enough with the Sino-American reapproach

Economically, Indonesia would be in deep trouble. Soekarno is not an economic manager. The inflation was 594% in 1965 and Soekarno couldn't do and wouldn't do anything about it.
Could he survive that ?
 
Could Sukarno refused to give concessions ?

Would this lead to coups or a civil war ?


Would he switch to a pro-soviet position if he lives long enough with the Sino-American reapproach


Could he survive that ?

Soekarno could if he wasn’t panicking. It quite literally hinged on that. The POD here would be Soekarno not only refusing concessions but mobilizing his supporters.

I think there will be armed conflict between the Army and the PKI after Soekarno dies with the Army coming out on top. The Army would still come out on top sooner or later, I think. The Army’s promotions and command rotations means that it always has a “production line” of potential military strongmen going.

It’d be an interesting scenario to see how Soekarno handles the US-China rapproachment. Most likely will drift closer to the DPRK and will become an alliance of “fellow isolated” countries.

The dangerous thing about Soekarno and the economy is that he just plain doesn’t care about managing the economy. Probably a high risk of inflation in the 1000s if Soekarno doesn’t do anything about the economy.
 
It’d be an interesting scenario to see how Soekarno handles the US-China rapproachment. Most likely will drift closer to the DPRK and will become an alliance of “fellow isolated” countries.
Why do you think that? I never saw Sukarno as a principal communist.
 
Why do you think that? I never saw Sukarno as a principal communist.

At one stage in 1965 he envisioned a Jakarta-Phnom Penh-Pyongyang-Beijing axis. So he is well-predisposed to the DPRK. Kim Il Sung visited Indonesia in 1965. https://books.google.co.id/books?id=TJptHWc4i1EC&pg=PA67&dq=jakarta-pyongyang+axis&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjN7af66ePgAhVKdCsKHQwNDI8Q6AEINTAD#v=onepage&q=jakarta-pyongyang axis&f=false

Another reason was that by 1965 Soekarno was advocating Berdikari. Berdikari means Standing On One’s Feet but gets translated as Self-Reliance. In turn, this parallels the Juche ideology https://books.google.co.id/books?id=rZdIDwAAQBAJ&pg=PT160&dq=sukarno+berdikari&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwimsc7s6uPgAhVFs48KHcAXBm4Q6AEIRjAG#v=onepage&q=sukarno berdikari&f=false

I don’t believe Soekarno is a communist. I do think that the idea of self-reliance resonates with his notions of nationalism and independence.
 
At one stage in 1965 he envisioned a Jakarta-Phnom Penh-Pyongyang-Beijing axis. So he is well-predisposed to the DPRK. Kim Il Sung visited Indonesia in 1965. https://books.google.co.id/books?id=TJptHWc4i1EC&pg=PA67&dq=jakarta-pyongyang+axis&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjN7af66ePgAhVKdCsKHQwNDI8Q6AEINTAD#v=onepage&q=jakarta-pyongyang axis&f=false

Another reason was that by 1965 Soekarno was advocating Berdikari. Berdikari means Standing On One’s Feet but gets translated as Self-Reliance. In turn, this parallels the Juche ideology https://books.google.co.id/books?id=rZdIDwAAQBAJ&pg=PT160&dq=sukarno+berdikari&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwimsc7s6uPgAhVFs48KHcAXBm4Q6AEIRjAG#v=onepage&q=sukarno berdikari&f=false

I don’t believe Soekarno is a communist. I do think that the idea of self-reliance resonates with his notions of nationalism and independence.
Ok, i think you're right that his ideal was an autarkic Indonesia (as so many recently independent nations) and that in no case he would align to the USA or the USSR and certainly could and would maintain amicable contacts with DPRK. Would he break with China though? It is not that the USA and China became the biggest of buddies after the rapprochement and the Chinese government didn't change their autarkic policies.
 
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I doubt it grow to that direction. Many world leader advocate autarkic self-reliance, but most wouldn't actually become NK. India and Myanmar is possible noncommunist Third World alliance.
And Soekarno not Communist, he sought Communism to balance Nationalism and Religion. He would work to find something to balance Communism, if Communist defeated army.
 
No genocide and a much better Indonesia. Sukarno keeps Indonesia non-aligned if the CIA doesn’t get him. Sukarno through his status as national hero manages to keep the PKI on side and they don’t attempt to seize power. As Sukarno ages, Guided Democracy makes way to real democracy. Obviously this is over-optimistic and a PKI-led Soviet aligned state could result to varying results.

One of the most heart-wrenching books I’ve read:
https://www.amazon.com/Killing-Season-Indonesian-Massacres-Humanity/dp/0691161380

Not supporting Amazon but it’s the best way to preview. Go to your local library.
 
Any reason why he wouldn't ally with the USSR. It's not like he had any conflicts with Soviet allied powers.
I doubt it grow to that direction. Many world leader advocate autarkic self-reliance, but most wouldn't actually become NK. India and Myanmar is possible noncommunist Third World alliance.
And Soekarno not Communist, he sought Communism to balance Nationalism and Religion. He would work to find something to balance Communism, if Communist defeated army.
I agree, what would he gain by becoming an official ally of the USSR? He was already receiving plenty aid from them and it could hurt the relations with that other donor China. The biggest danger for him is the army, but if he somehow deals with that danger, he wil turn against the PKI eventualy, maybe by turning to the Religion pillar? This is something that has happened in other islamic countries in OTL.
 
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