Suez: What if Eden Ignores Ike?

But those grievances re: Egyptian raids and harassment are never cited by the OPs of these threads. They just British control of the Canal to continue. Or, more cynically, for Britain and France to successfully spite the US in this matter, regardless of the larger consequences.

Perhaps not, or perhaps they do and leave it unsaid.

In any event Nasser was playing power politics like a man possessed; the fedayeen raids into israel were not about the military impact but about establishing him as the leader of the Arab world as did his support for the Algerian rebels. Similarly his opposition to the Baghdad pact was about power politics, he didn't want Iraq to be the centrepiece of this new alliance as it would diminish Egyptian influence. I'm afraid that even in the moral environment of 2019 if you play with fire you're likely to get burnt.
 
Perhaps not, or perhaps they do and leave it unsaid.

In any event Nasser was playing power politics like a man possessed; the fedayeen raids into israel were not about the military impact but about establishing him as the leader of the Arab world as did his support for the Algerian rebels. Similarly his opposition to the Baghdad pact was about power politics, he didn't want Iraq to be the centrepiece of this new alliance as it would diminish Egyptian influence. I'm afraid that even in the moral environment of 2019 if you play with fire you're likely to get burnt.

But if your target is Nasser personally, then you shouldn't be seen as aggrandizing yourself in the process of taking him down. That precludes reclaiming the canal.
 
Found someone to lend them at least £2+bn on a long term basis, but this would be so transparent as to be impossible for the reasons nobody was willing to lend them the money on a short term basis during the crisis, plus it would destroy the cover story of intervention to separate Egypt and Israel. Plausible effective measure would either mean a different economic policy going back at least to the Conservatives returning to office (probably even earlier), or getting US support somehow.

Can that be walked back at all? Would 1.5 billion be sufficient and could be be over multiple loans with different terms; maybe one short, another medium and another long?
 
I've seen a number of justifications for Suez from Britain, France and Israel. IIRC Israel was looking to go to war with Egypt over fedayeen raids and Egypt harassing Israeli shipping in the canal, France over control of the canal and Egyptian support of Algerian rebels and Britain for control of the canal and Egyptian opposition to the Baghdad Pact. Eliminating these things is desirable for the 3 parties, regardless of whether going to war in the way it was done IOTL is the best way to go about.

Each of the three countries had their own motivations, the British sought to discredit Nasser and regain control of the canal, Nasser was not going to be replaced by anyone more pro-British, especially after an invasion, at least without permanent occupation which was unsustainable or massive subsidies, which were unaffordable. The only country likely to achieve its goal on a medium term basis was Israel, and this because Israel retained the ability to massively retaliate with little notice. Britain and France didn't have the resources to do this without re-orientating their entire strategy. In any case Britain and France decided not to directly topple Nasser by attacking Cairo.
 
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Can that be walked back at all? Would 1.5 billion be sufficient and could be be over multiple loans with different terms; maybe one short, another medium and another long?
How much money is needed is unknown, the larger the loan the more likely people are to believe they can get their money and so the less likely they are to actually demand their money and the less of the loan will actually be used. I don't have the figures to hand but I believe the sterling balances were still over £3bn. Some of the sterling balances weren't in transferable accounts, but on the other hand it was possible for traders to speculate against a currency despite capital controls (for example by demanding payment for exports on delivery and imports in advance). £2bn is basically a WAG but it is my best WAG for a minimum and even £1.5bn is likely to be impossible to raise on a long term basis.

How long the money is needed depends on how things turn out, but capital controls and inertia mean that once people have been able to convert their £s into $s they are unlikely to shift them back without some additional incentive. So repaying the loan is going to be difficult to do, especially if it has to be done in a short period of time. My suggestion of a long term loan was both to ease the repayment over time once the crisis is over and to increase the credibility of the £. Plus, a short term loan would be utterly transparent as being related to a short term crisis whereas a longer term loan might be dressed up as a way of funding the sterling balances and making sterling convertible.
 
What measures could Britain have undertaken during the 3 month lead-up to the fighting to better withstand this level of financial pressure?
I don't think they had planned on the Op pissing off Ike so much that preparing for that, being cut off from the Global Financial networks.

The amount of Bonds tha the US held could not be dealt with in 3 months.
Or three years, for that matter
 
But if your target is Nasser personally, then you shouldn't be seen as aggrandizing yourself in the process of taking him down. That precludes reclaiming the canal.

Aggrandizing?

From 1936 Britain only had troops in the canal zone in peacetime, some 10,000 fighting troops, 400 pilots and their supporting staff, they were not occupying the entire country or whatever. In 1954 Egypt had reached an agreement with the British to withdraw their troops from the canal zone by 1956 (which was completed) and transfer control of the Suez Canal company to the Egyptian government by 1968. Nasser broke the latter part of the agreement and also realised Britain and France's wort fears about the canal by immediately closing it to the shipping of a country he was at odds with: Israel.

Given Britain had agreed 20 years earlier to withdraw entirely to the canal zone and limit troop numbers and 2 years earlier to withdraw even from that I struggle to believe Britain, France and Israel (neither of whom had past colonial history with Egypt) wanted to conquer and enslave Egypt. More likely the aims were to get Nasser or some other Egyptian leader comply with the terms of the 1954 agreement and to stop being an arsehole in general.
 
I don't think they had planned on the Op pissing off Ike so much that preparing for that, being cut off from the Global Financial networks.

The amount of Bonds tha the US held could not be dealt with in 3 months.
Or three years, for that matter

It's not about the quantity of bonds held in the US but the amount of sterling held by people that could be converted into $ or other currencies through global financial networks. The problem isn't the US cutting the UK off from global financial networks but the UK being unable to meet its obligations and so cutting itself off from GFNs. You're right though that Britain misjudged the depth of US opposition, just as they misjudged Egyptian nationalism, basically they were living in cloud cuckoo land.
 
Aggrandizing?

From 1936 Britain only had troops in the canal zone in peacetime, some 10,000 fighting troops, 400 pilots and their supporting staff, they were not occupying the entire country or whatever. In 1954 Egypt had reached an agreement with the British to withdraw their troops from the canal zone by 1956 (which was completed) and transfer control of the Suez Canal company to the Egyptian government by 1968. Nasser broke the latter part of the agreement and also realised Britain and France's wort fears about the canal by immediately closing it to the shipping of a country he was at odds with: Israel.

Given Britain had agreed 20 years earlier to withdraw entirely to the canal zone and limit troop numbers and 2 years earlier to withdraw even from that I struggle to believe Britain, France and Israel (neither of whom had past colonial history with Egypt) wanted to conquer and enslave Egypt. More likely the aims were to get Nasser or some other Egyptian leader comply with the terms of the 1954 agreement and to stop being an arsehole in general.

Britain had consistently failed to meet the troop limits from at least 1945 until they actually withdrew. Egypt was entirely within its right to nationalise what was a company incorporated under Egyptian law, especially as it promised compensation to shareholders. Its limits on Israeli shipping was arguably justifiable as it was at war with Israel just as Britain stopped some shipping using the canal during the world wars (although this is debatable and I'm not a lawyer). The original canal concession was only for 99 years to a company registered under Egyptian law, expiring in 1968, so transferring control back to the Egyptian government in 1968 wasn't a concession by the UK. For comparison the US Panama canal agreement was originally indefinite and gave the US lots of rights that the UK just didn't have, so that handing the Panama canal over was a concession.

Britain justified the operation by reference to the right to ensure free passage through the canal in response to the Israel invasion. This fooled nobody and the operation was almost universally condemned as a transparent infringement of Egyptian sovereignty and international agreements in an attempt to assert British (and French) power over the Egyptian government.
 
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WILDGEESE

Gone Fishin'
MickCZ said it, and it was addressed to him.

That was sent to me as I answered your post which you posted to MickCZ (didn't know that it was against the rules to correct someone on a public forum)

Not the point. The Royal Marines and associated British forces did not operate in a situation that demanded they be mindful that SPEED of execution to seize the airfield was what mattered. What they did showed that they did not understand at all what they were supposed to do. The airfield is the terminus of an air bridge and it is a potential launch pad for Pucara CAS against the operation. This is not GALIPOLI, this is assaulting an island with an AIRBASE.

Yes . . . that is the point.

The RM and Assault forces had no need to take the Port Stanley Airfield directly, FAA fast jets apart from Aero Macchi's could use the strip as there wasn't enough runway to take off again.
Pucara CAS aircraft can take off from any rough strip of grass on the Falklands so it made no sense going after Stanley. Better let the SAS/SBS take care of them . . . . Pebble Island style.

And since both the RAF and the Argentine air force knew:

1. British threat of strike via Vulcans was nonexistent. (18 hours flight into an air force with modern radar and decent fighters without British fighter escort or SEAD within reach? AYK?)
2. British bombing of the Argentine metropole means war with the United States and the OAS, (Yes, that was what Washington told London, when Thatcher asked Reagan about it, the Americans South and North have a treaty about that thing.)
3. If you cannot base a Mirage on East Island because the runway length is too short (and the Argentines wanted too, Black Buck had nothing to do with the impossibility which is the main reason) it was nonsensical that you claimed Black Buck would be the reason they did not.
4. Finally it took everything the RAF had to mount these paltry raids. And they achieved NOTHING.

Again re-read my post.

I never said that the RAF Vulcan's where going to attack the mainland. It was a perceived threat that the Argies believed in, similar to the silly thought that they had that we would use 'nukes' against them if we lost. More fool to them.

MickCZ said it, and it was addressed to him.

It was posted to me by you! . . . check above!
 
A bit off topic to the current line of discussion, but what do you all think the uk political ramifications would be? Could all this cause enough economic chaos to elect Gaitskell?
 
Petrodollar. The ME needs US credit. And I've already answered that other. (^^^).
The ME doesn't need US credit....it needs US military support...and gets it.
Nope...the US still wanted Britain East of Suez as a political measure...not military.
 
A bit off topic to the current line of discussion, but what do you all think the uk political ramifications would be? Could all this cause enough economic chaos to elect Gaitskell?
Regrettably not! If Eden is successful he will win an election. If not, it is effectively OTL with Supermac taking over.
 
Simple answer to the original question: the UK goes bankrupt and ceases being a significant international economic or political player about 15 years earlier than actually happened, conceivable oil stockpiles are largely irrelevant.

In the period 1945-1968 (and beyond) the pound was continually experiencing exchange rate crises, there was one about every 2-3 years. There were a couple of reasons for this this. Firstly there was the issue of sterling balances: the British had paid for lots of stuff in pounds during WW2 (a privilege they got from the sterling area), so many countries had large amounts of sterling which would be converted into other currencies if there was any threat of sterling devaluation. These were valued at about £3.5bn in 1945 (about 35% of GDP) and are completely separate from the debt owed to the US (which was in $). Originally this money was owed to countries like India, Egypt and Argentina, largely poor countries which would bitterly resent being defaulted on by a wealthy country. The second factor was that the UK typically ran its economy slightly too hot, with unemployment slightly too low and inflation slightly too high. Whilst possibly good in the short run, this meant that, combined with a fixed exchange rate, UK goods became increasingly overpriced and the British were unable to export enough to run the current account surplus needed to pay off the sterling balances, instead what tended to happen was that some countries got repaid by borrowing from others and the holders of sterling increasingly became Middle Eastern Oil exporters.

So why does this affect the Suez crisis? Currency crises are not linear events, they happen like a bank run, if nobody else wants to convert their money from £ into say $ then you can get your money, but if everyone tries to do it at once then only those at the front of the queue will get their money, giving rise to self fulfilling prophecies. It was exactly such a crisis that suez triggered: trouble in the middle east threatened to raise the global price of oil, the blocking of the Suez canal would raise the price of a large share of British imports and exports (not just oil), military mobilization would reduce UK exports. All of these would threaten the UKs balance of payments so people ran to be at the front of the queue without the US needing to do anything. Just like with a bank run, in a temporary currency crisis the solution is for a lender of last resort to loan you the money to tide you over, this is the IMFs role. An IMF loan would need US approval and it is here that the US was critical. The US didn't need to do anything to force the UK to stop, mere inaction was enough. France didn't have the issue of large quantities of francs being held by foreigners, so France wasn't as vulnerable as the UK to US displeasure.

Once the UK agreed to stop the operation an IMF loan was fairly rapidly agreed. The alternative in 1956 was for Britain to default on its debts to foreigners on a large scale, ending its position as a global economic/political power far more decisively than happened OTL (plus ending its close relationship with the US, possibly forever). Going back before 1956, if the UK had run larger balance of payments surpluses (and stored them either as foreign exchange reserves or possibly in the form of oil) from 1945 it might not have been in the same position, but to make a significant dent in the sterling balances this would have meant (over most of 1945-56 at least) higher unemployment and a lower standard of living, which given rationing continued until 1954 in OTL was fairly unthinkable at the time.

This is assuming that Suez was a good idea in any case, even setting aside the moral dimension. The best plausible scenario is one where a successful operation would merely have returned the British to the pre-1954 position, i.e. fighting an unsustainable static guerilla war in the canal zone. The British (and French) simply underestimated the strength of Egyptian nationalism.
Thank you for an excellent analysis of the position.
I imagine Eden regretted having vetoed Operation Robot some years earlier!
 
It's not about the quantity of bonds held in the US but the amount of sterling held by people that could be converted into $ or other currencies through global financial networks. The problem isn't the US cutting the UK off from global financial networks but the UK being unable to meet its obligations and so cutting itself off from GFNs. You're right though that Britain misjudged the depth of US opposition, just as they misjudged Egyptian nationalism, basically they were living in cloud cuckoo land.
As I understand the situation, Macmillan had assured Eden that Ike was, if not supportive, at least not hostile to the operation.
Whether that was misjudgement or calculation remains unclear. Supermac always wanted to be PM despite his protestations to the contrary.
 
The ME doesn't need US credit....it needs US military support...and gets it.
Nope...the US still wanted Britain East of Suez as a political measure...not military.

Already answered with a bit of RTL history and economics. Britain was actually a hindrance to US objectives.
 
That was sent to me as I answered your post which you posted to MickCZ (didn't know that it was against the rules to correct someone on a public forum)

Shrug.

Yes . . . that is the point.

Already answered.

The RM and Assault forces had no need to take the Port Stanley Airfield directly, FAA fast jets apart from Aero Macchi's could use the strip as there wasn't enough runway to take off again.

Pucaras, present, C-130s available, CAN. A runway is dangerous. Put troops on it.

Pucara CAS aircraft can take off from any rough strip of grass on the Falklands so it made no sense going after Stanley. Better let the SAS/SBS take care of them . . . . Pebble Island style.

Already answered. Runways mean FULLY LOADED Pucaras if you did not understand.

Again re-read my post.

I never said that the RAF Vulcan's where going to attack the mainland. It was a perceived threat that the Argies believed in, similar to the silly thought that they had that we would use 'nukes' against them if we lost. More fool to them.

Never threaten or even allow the press to get the idea that nukes were threatened. Anyway, the facts are as I gave them.

It was posted to me by you! . . . check above!

Maybe I should have included headers, but it still appears that you are missing the salient points in the discussion. Anyway, YMMV and it supposed to. I only point out a difference in fact when the assertion does not match the historical record. Aside from that one issue, my "opinion" is just an opinion. It is not gospel and is not supposed to be construed as such.
 

WILDGEESE

Gone Fishin'
Pucaras, present, C-130s available, CAN. A runway is dangerous. Put troops on it.

Mmmmm . . . by helicopter I suppose.

Best of luck with that with a TigerCat, Roland and Oerlikons AAG there!

As for Landing craft

It take it you've already clear for mines (while under fire) and have some how managed to avoid these babies covering the harbour etc

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download.jpg


Maybe I should have included headers, but it still appears that you are missing the salient points in the discussion. Anyway, YMMV and it supposed to. I only point out a difference in fact when the assertion does not match the historical record. Aside from that one issue, my "opinion" is just an opinion. It is not gospel and is not supposed to be construed as such.

Oh well . . . . SHRUGGS!
 
Mmmmm . . . by helicopter I suppose.

Best of luck with that with a TigerCat, Roland and Oerlikons AAG there!

As for Landing craft

It take it you've already clear for mines (while under fire) and have some how managed to avoid these babies covering the harbour etc

View attachment 484683

View attachment 484684



Oh well . . . . SHRUGGS!

1. The water is too shallow and easy to clear at Choiseul and if you didn't plan for the mundane, you've no business being there.
2. At Choiseul Sound? By helicopter. I said so.
3. If you had not prepared for SEAD, you've no business being there.
4. You mean land based Exocet? WTH are you doing with your CAS?

IOW, your objections are noted and answered.
 
Already answered with a bit of RTL history and economics. Britain was actually a hindrance to US objectives.
A hindrance or not, the USA wanted Britain to stay East of Suez; the policy in the 60s had changed from that of the 50s....and yes, because of the Vietnam morass: Darby..British Defence Policy East of Suez 1946-1968..Oxford University Press.
 
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