Suez: What if Eden Ignores Ike?

I refer you to this>

The Americans learned this the hard way in Vietnam. They should have remembered their own history... 1776 and 1812. Eden should have known it, too. He was well educated in British history.
1812 the USA was a minor annoyance compared to the Corsican Ogre.

The USA was not a client State of another superpower, in fact the relations with France were hardly better than the UK. In 1812, the US was a pesky neutral that posed little threat to sreas colored Pink on the Globe.

Unlike North Vietnam, the USA was not getting 20 years worth of free military and economic aid from all of the UKs enemies to repeatedly attemp to take over British North America, what would be known as Canada.
 
1812 the USA was a minor annoyance compared to the Corsican Ogre.

The USA was not a client State of another superpower, in fact the relations with France were hardly better than the UK. In 1812, the US was a pesky neutral that posed little threat to sreas colored Pink on the Globe.

Unlike North Vietnam, the USA was not getting 20 years worth of free military and economic aid from all of the UKs enemies to repeatedly attemp to take over British North America, what would be known as Canada.

Uhm… War of 1812, who packed the Americans out of Canada? Hint. Look at the red areas of the map.
 
2 more frigates and 1 more landing ship and the British were kaput. IOW 1 more Argentine air force sortie or a PK of 30% instead of 20%
I agree with the general thrust of most of what you've written in this thread, but I feel you're being a little disingenuous to the British feat of arms in retaking those islands, given the Royal Navy's role in the world at that time, the logistics, the inclement weather and rapidly closing window of opportunity, the close vicinity of Argentina to the islands, and the fact that it was an amphibious assault against an island that the Argies had had a month to fortify.

Leadership, training, quality of arms carried the day.

In any case, 2 more frigates wouldn't have made a difference, they weren't the key vessels, which were the aircraft carriers and the landing ships - and once the task force is fully embarked it's game over regardless.

Anyway, the above is pure whataboutery - Britain had the capabilities to retake the islands, and did, despite taking heavy losses for such a short and limited conflict.
 
I agree with the general thrust of most of what you've written in this thread, but I feel you're being a little disingenuous to the British feat of arms in retaking those islands, given the Royal Navy's role in the world at that time, the logistics, the inclement weather and rapidly closing window of opportunity, the close vicinity of Argentina to the islands, and the fact that it was an amphibious assault against an island that the Argies had had a month to fortify.

Leadership, training, quality of arms carried the day.

In any case, 2 more frigates wouldn't have made a difference, they weren't the key vessels, which were the aircraft carriers and the landing ships - and once the task force is fully embarked it's game over regardless.

Anyway, the above is pure whataboutery - Britain had the capabilities to retake the islands, and did, despite taking heavy losses for such a short and limited conflict.

British fleet air defense in San Carlos Water (Battle of San Carlos (1982)) was halved and proved rather inept by even French standards, Troop lift and sustainment damaged by 30% by the losses they took (Include Atlantic Conveyor which is mentioned in the cite) is in the AARs. After that it is a zero margin for error. If an American CTF had shown up without sustainable logistics or suffered such sustainment and defensive hits and reverses (Savo Island or Samar ring a bell?) I would forecast a court martial in that admiral's future as what almost happened twice per those events. Personally, I'd byng the crowd who screwed up Operation Corporate. Strategically it might have been the Foreign Office, but at the op-art level it is Woodward and Fieldhouse who bungled naval matters. Moore could have picked a better landing site. Atlantic Conveyor (Bad luck, that.) might have influenced the final shape of the campaign and what Moore did, but parking your landing force inside a Champaign glass of surrounding hills and in a crowded no maneuver room sea loch when you can land beyond enemy effective reach 30 km east and south is just frankly stupid asinine war-making that will flunk you out of amphib 101. The RN knew better than that.

Don't get me started on the ASW fiascos.
 
Uhm… War of 1812, who packed the Americans out of Canada? Hint. Look at the red areas of the map.
So, who was aiding the US in invading BNA in 1813? Please list the countries, then compare to what support North Vietnam had from 1955 to 1975. Even closed off Albania was sending help.
 
So, who was aiding the US in invading BNA in 1813? Please list the countries, then compare to what support North Vietnam had from 1955 to 1975. Even closed off Albania was sending help.


Not the correct observer viewpoint. The pigeon is CANADA.
 
I just see someone dodging the question

Didn't dodge the question, just pointed out the question was inapplicable.

It had nothing to do with who aided the US in 1812. It had to do with who aided Canada.

Also was because the question had no relevance to the point; hence Schrodinger's Pidgeon.
 
It wouldn't have stopped the run on the pound, it would allowed Britain to withstand it without having to capitulate to Ike.
No, because by dumping the Debt Bond, while blocking access to IMF Credit, the Pound would continue to plummet. OTL the UK tossed 360 million on market intervention, for no gain, just slowed the slide, slightly. The initial losses were around 400 million, around 20% of total reserves.
And that was with OZ and SA sending in Bullion to help cushion the blows. By end of November, it was over 880 million in losses, more than the earlier Sterlin crises of '49 and '52, combined, that happened over a much shorter time frame with Ike really putting the screws on in November
 
Reread that article. You're interpretation is in error.



You will see what I have to say about American intent in the Falklands crisis in a bit, but Americans are far more subtle than the British sometimes give them credit.

Further.



Further.



I see you cite this...



IOW, a pack of fools had executed an insanity, then had turned coward. That is not American support of the insanity (as American acts clearly demonstrated the Eisenhower administration's firm and continuous opposition during that act of Anglo-French-Israeli insanity, which shows that Britain could not even unilaterally carry out the Suez action militarily without enormous help from others.), but rather a sour American observation of the British government's moral bankruptcy and stupidity on all sides of the issue in act, plan and funk out when they, the Eden crown administration were finally and firmly caught in their imperialist chicanery.



That was going to happen anyway. The Suez crisis merely nailed the coffin lid shut. With regards to the Falklands... as the article cites and states.



I do not agree that Britain was capable of independent action in the Falklands. She was allowed to act her part by a tacit American understanding and logistically assisted by the United States and still she almost lost.

There are Americans who still argue about our duplicitous role in that event, though I think the outcome in removing the Galtieri thug regime via domestic Argentine political internal resolution after that incident was in America's interest and was the {accidentally propitious and possibly poorly understood}reason the US actually allowed that event to occur.

I have re-read the article. It specifically states that it is probable that if the British had pressed on and Nasser removed, and the USA been presented with a fait accomplit US interests would have dictated acquiescence in the outcome.

Whilst obviously speculation, one presumes the author had studied the position and come to a rational conclusion. The points I made therefore stand.
 
I have re-read the article. It specifically states that it is probable that if the British had pressed on and Nasser removed, and the USA been presented with a fait accomplit US interests would have dictated acquiescence in the outcome.

Whilst obviously speculation, one presumes the author had studied the position and come to a rational conclusion. The points I made therefore stand.

YMMV and it should, but that is not the history or the end result. Nor does it match the main outline of US foreign policy which was to aggressively decolonize and de imperialize the post WW II world. Your problem is to prove that the US would acquiesce to an aggressive attempt by an "ally" to reverse that policy. Whether you think the author is correct in his assessment of US intent is not relevant. His statement ranks under "assertion" and even he does not claim it is probable given the US actions in progress. It is more of a hopeful statement and contravenes the historical US policy and set of actions.
 

WILDGEESE

Gone Fishin'
British fleet air defense in San Carlos Water (Battle of San Carlos (1982)) was halved and proved rather inept by even French standards, Troop lift and sustainment damaged by 30% by the losses they took (Include Atlantic Conveyor which is mentioned in the cite) is in the AARs. After that it is a zero margin for error. If an American CTF had shown up without sustainable logistics or suffered such sustainment and defensive hits and reverses (Savo Island or Samar ring a bell?) I would forecast a court martial in that admiral's future as what almost happened twice per those events. Personally, I'd byng the crowd who screwed up Operation Corporate. Strategically it might have been the Foreign Office, but at the op-art level it is Woodward and Fieldhouse who bungled naval matters. Moore could have picked a better landing site. Atlantic Conveyor (Bad luck, that.) might have influenced the final shape of the campaign and what Moore did, but parking your landing force inside a Champaign glass of surrounding hills and in a crowded no maneuver room sea loch when you can land beyond enemy effective reach 30 km east and south is just frankly stupid asinine war-making that will flunk you out of amphib 101. The RN knew better than that.

Don't get me started on the ASW fiascos.

Moore could've picked a better site . . . but they where heavily defended and open to attack by Exocet.

The gambit payed off at San Carlos

It was that good a site that the Argie's Command despite given intel from their men to the contrary still didn't believe the Amphib' forces had landed their thinking it was a ruse.

Don't forget also that the same problems that effected the RN vessels at San Carlos in regards to defense also affected the Argies in regards to the attacking!

So your points on this landing site is invalid.
 
YMMV and it should, but that is not the history or the end result. Nor does it match the main outline of US foreign policy which was to aggressively decolonize and de imperialize the post WW II world. Your problem is to prove that the US would acquiesce to an aggressive attempt by an "ally" to reverse that policy. Whether you think the author is correct in his assessment of US intent is not relevant. His statement ranks under "assertion" and even he does not claim it is probable given the US actions in progress. It is more of a hopeful statement and contravenes the historical US policy and set of actions.
The POD is Eden ignoring Ike. In Alternate History everything after the POD is assertion with greater or lesser probability.
With regard to the USA accepting a fait accomplit, I would cite the fact that the USA did not want Britain to withdraw from East of Suez, indicating an acceptance of the British role there. So yes, the USA would have accepted a successful Suez operation...Ike would have been furious but once reelected have got over it.
I don't agree that the USA sought decolonisation and de-imperialisation. It merely sought to replace the existing colonial powers, and was successful in doing so. The main opponent was the Russian Empire, then under new management as the USSR, which had a product very attractive to impoverished peoples, namely Communism.
 
British fleet air defense in San Carlos Water (Battle of San Carlos (1982)) was halved and proved rather inept by even French standards, Troop lift and sustainment damaged by 30% by the losses they took (Include Atlantic Conveyor which is mentioned in the cite) is in the AARs. After that it is a zero margin for error. If an American CTF had shown up without sustainable logistics or suffered such sustainment and defensive hits and reverses (Savo Island or Samar ring a bell?) I would forecast a court martial in that admiral's future as what almost happened twice per those events. Personally, I'd byng the crowd who screwed up Operation Corporate. Strategically it might have been the Foreign Office, but at the op-art level it is Woodward and Fieldhouse who bungled naval matters. Moore could have picked a better landing site. Atlantic Conveyor (Bad luck, that.) might have influenced the final shape of the campaign and what Moore did, but parking your landing force inside a Champaign glass of surrounding hills and in a crowded no maneuver room sea loch when you can land beyond enemy effective reach 30 km east and south is just frankly stupid asinine war-making that will flunk you out of amphib 101. The RN knew better than that.

Don't get me started on the ASW fiascos.

Fieldhouse predicted almost to the ship the losses that the RN would take and urged the PM to go anyway and she did.

As for San Carlos as a bad landing site.

I totally disagree.

The Royal Marines knew the Island very well and being the suspicious and paranoid types that they are had already decided on where the best place to conduct a landing would be long before 1982.

San Carlos was no mere last minute decision. The loss of Atlantic Conveyor and the 9 Transport helicopters certainly had an impact on the decision to send the Welsh Guards to Bluff cove via the 2 LCTs - and for me this was the biggest avoidable cock up of the war for the British (even more avoidable as it was expected that the troops would have unloaded before it got light*) - but it had no bearing on the landings at San Carlos (which began on 21st May and ended on 25th May - the day the Atlantic Conveyor was hit)

This gives a good account

Its approaching winter in the South Atlantic, so a protected anchorage with a suitable landing area was required - and it is far enough away from the main Argentine Force to allow for a landing and build up of forces to be conducted with little risk of a counter attack and the location was not expected by the Argentine leadership.

Yet not too far away that troops cannot make a cross country movement to invest Port Stanley which was the only real location on the islands worth holding.

The expected LZs, closer to Standley, were mined and covered by dug in Battalion sized units or too close to risk the Argentines counter attacking before the buildup of troops, logistics, Artillery and SAMs could be completed.

And any location on West Falklands is pointless.

The terrain worked both ways.

Due to Sea Dart, which due to the Argentine Navy being the only other user of (with 2 Type 42 DDGs of their own) the Argentine fliers were fully aware that they were dead meat unless they flew under its minimum envelope of about 30 feet (by the end of the campaign this was down to about 10-15 feet) and the SHAR CAP - meaning that the Argentine bombers had mere seconds to pick a target and bomb it.

Almost universally this was a warship.

And due to the low Altitude at which the attacks were made at least 13 bombs did not arm - but not one landing ship was attacked (I believe that a single LCI landing craft was hit by a bomb)

And while they had some success - they paid for it losing 1/4 or so of the aircraft used.

The landing area was supposed to be very quickly ringed by Rapier SAM positions which it was pretty much by the evening of the 21st May. Sadly what was not known at the time was that the system having performed very well on exercises and having come through testing with flying colors to date (it was nicknamed the 'Hittile' as it never missed) did not like being in the hold of a ship for 6 weeks and failed to achieve its expected dominance over the air threat due to the tracking systems being U/S.

Later it was found that the environment - being as it was full of helicopters and ships - the operators initially struggled with IFF issues and the fact that the Argentine aircraft were flying so low that the operator struggled to direct the missiles onto the targets!

As for ASW

Well the area around the Falklands is very shallow, very noisy and festooned with 100s of wrecks and an abundance of Whale life and other bios making for a very difficult environment to detect Subs and conduct ASW.

This is somewhat tempered by the fact that the single Argentine Submarine that actually was operating in the area....was really really shit.

As you see there was a distinct lack of Submarines to direct ASW efforts against - with only 2 operational boats out of the 4 the Argentine Navy owned fit for service - the older Ex USS Catfish the ARA Santa Fe a Guppy class which was crippled early in the campaign leaving Grytviken in South Georgia by British helicopters on the 25th April (after being detected surfaced in shallow water the subs captain decided that he was more at risk from Torpedo and Depth charge attacks so stayed on the surface - poor choice as it turned out the 2 Helicopters were armed with wire guided missiles having expecting a surface threat and ventilated her fin and the Santa Fe later received further damage from a Depth charge anyway forcing her to return to the port) and was later captured in South Georgia after the Island was liberated.

This left the single more modern German Made Type 209 class Sub the ARA San Luis which suffered from a malfunctioning attack computer and a poor crew, unfamiliar with the boat that could not service the fish and as far as I am aware made a single attack on the 1st May "against HMS Hermes" (read against a distant contact very likely the distant picket vessels HMS Brilliant and HMS Yarmouth) at a range which post war was estimated to be at least 2x the maximum engagement envelope of the torpedo if not further (so likely to be well over 20,000 yards/10 NMs) - the torpedo attack was detected by those 2 Frigates and great effort and a large amount of ordinance (multiple Depth Charges and at least one ASW Torpedo) was expended on anything that was remotely like a submarine (wrecks and whales) for the next 24 hours.

Another attack was supposedly made against a British Submarine on the 8th May with a Mk 37 which hit and destroyed the target. As the British did not lose any subs and to date no reports from British subs confirm the attack we have no clue as to what she actually engaged.

The closest San Juan came to success was an attack on the 10th of May against HMS Arrow who, along with a sister ship HMS Alacrity was making a high speed run through the sound - with a lack of Mine sweepers yet in theatre the 2 ships were deemed the most expendable warship much to the crews delight I am sure and was sent to see if they could 'find any mines'.

Well they do say if you cannot take a joke you should not have joined the military!

San Luis managed to fire 1 of 2 attempted shots but quickly lost the wires but again recorded a hit. The 2nd attack was aborted as both ships rapidly past out of range.

HMS Arrow due to her high speed was unaware of the attack although did report some damage to her decoy when it was recovered - which may have been 'impacted' by the San Juans SST-4 fish but equally may have struck an underwater wreck or the reef that existed at one end of the sound.

What was later established was that the San Juans crew were not actually arming their fish before firing them!


*The Royal Marine Officer in charge of the landings at Bluff Cove upon learning that the Welsh Guard Battalion had not disembarked was absolutely stunned and remonstrated with their Brigade CO - who was unswayed (he wanted to get his men closer to Standley in a second night lift) and being a senior officer of the Guard Brigade Mafia was not going to be told what to do by a mere unwashed mortal such as a Major of Marines.

It noted that the only senior British Officer to have not received any official recognition after the war was Said Brigade CO - Brigadier Tony Wilson and he retired from the Army not long after.

I have also heard and read that the Welsh Guards, unlike the Royal Marines and Paras were not fit enough to March across the Islands having just come off Parade duties in London (they had gotten fat) which is why they conducted the movement by sea! IMO another Regiment should have been sent instead - apparently the Green Howards (now 2nd Battalion/Yorkshire Regiment) should have been slated to refill 5th light infantry Brigade before it was sent to replace the 2 Parachute Battalions that had been moved over from 5th Light Infantry Brigade to 3rd Commando Brigade. 1st Para should also have been relieved of its Northern Ireland mission and sent as the 3rd Battalion. But apparently internal politics ensured that the 2 Guard Battalions were sent instead despite their potential unsuitability.
 
This. *(^^^) America is no saintly country, but at least she tried to "look the part". And this was Eisenhower, the leader of "the great crusade", so a lot of American prestige and illusions were shattered globally, too. I mean Iran is on the burner and Dulles is doing other things that would get him imprisoned as a war criminal today, but... that's still obscured. This was so brazen, nothing could fix it. And to be honest, we still live with the consequences and justifiably so.
America of course promptly handed over its own imperial keystone canal in the wake of Suez... in the timely year of 1999, a mere 40 years after Eisenhower's presidency.
 
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All the other is debatable... I do not agree, but it is debatable with points either way. US operations have historically been open ocean or opposed landings under far worse weather and combat conditions than what were in the Falklands. Airpower is the one avoidable you must take every chance to mitigate. That is the one factor that makes or breaks an amphibious assault.

Well the area around the Falklands is very shallow, very noisy and festooned with 100s of wrecks and an abundance of Whale life and other bios making for a very difficult environment to detect Subs and conduct ASW.

You go active and you sonar bang away for dear life in that "Caribbean" type environment, cause that is the only chance you have there in 1982. The RN used North Atlantic deep water search tactics and they should have paid the price for that stupidity. Just be thankful that the German equipment the Argentinians used was not well understood. Apparently the torpedomen of the ARA San Luis were unaware of the proper presets for the SST-4s they used. When the torpedoes swam out they went stupid because the guidance updates they were supposed to receive by wire were never transmitted. Lesson? Be thankful that the San Luis did not use NT-37s and that the Germans overengineered their fish. KISS = BOOM.

Moore could've picked a better site . . . but they where heavily defended and open to attack by Exocet.

The gambit payed off at San Carlos

It was that good a site that the Argie's Command despite given intel from their men to the contrary still didn't believe the Amphib' forces had landed their thinking it was a ruse.

Don't forget also that the same problems that effected the RN vessels at San Carlos in regards to defense also affected the Argies in regards to the attacking!

So your points on this landing site is invalid.

The Argentinian's bombs (British made) were not properly fused to go off on impact (time delay intended for land use). San Carlos would have been the RN's Iron Bottom Sound if the bombs had been properly fused for anti-ship work. So actually my points are valid.


Damn good air force. And I do not mean the FAA.
 
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The POD is Eden ignoring Ike. In Alternate History everything after the POD is assertion with greater or lesser probability.
With regard to the USA accepting a fait accomplit, I would cite the fact that the USA did not want Britain to withdraw from East of Suez, indicating an acceptance of the British role there. So yes, the USA would have accepted a successful Suez operation...Ike would have been furious but once reelected have got over it.
I don't agree that the USA sought decolonisation and de-imperialisation. It merely sought to replace the existing colonial powers, and was successful in doing so. The main opponent was the Russian Empire, then under new management as the USSR, which had a product very attractive to impoverished peoples, namely Communism.

You cannot ASB American historical trends and facts. The Americans most certainly wanted the British out of India and achieved it. Once India was achieved, what was the point of East of Suez? None. The American follow up was of course to throw the British out of the Middle East as the primary influence. This was the policy as laid out in the article, itself. Why would America acquiesce to British imperialism? The very origin of the American nation was an anti-imperialist act.
 
You cannot ASB American historical trends and facts. The Americans most certainly wanted the British out of India and achieved it. Once India was achieved, what was the point of East of Suez? None. The American follow up was of course to throw the British out of the Middle East as the primary influence. This was the policy as laid out in the article, itself. Why would America acquiesce to British imperialism? The very origin of the American nation was an anti-imperialist act.
I don't think there is any ASB. The British also wanted the British out of India...and achieved it; it was costly and not beneficial to Britain.
The point of East of Suez was what it still is....oil. That is why the USA is there, and in fact needs to be so or the Petrodollar will collapse, followed swiftly by US power.
The USA wanted Britain to remain East of Suez because Vietnam was too costly and eventually forced the USA to renege on Bretton Woods.
 
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