Such Times as These: An Alternate 2000 Election

Jeez, thanks for reminding me about this! I honestly absolutely forgot that I had this timeline. I know where I was going with this...
 
2: For Every Action, and Overwhelming and Dominating Reaction

August 19th, 2002
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Bob Schieffer: "Good Evening. I'm Bob Schieffer. Tonight, we have new headlines from Washington, along with an exclusive interview with Vice-President McCain."

Schieffer: "I'd like to open with some of the newest polls for the upcoming midterm elections, and how it pertains to the situation ongoing in Washington. On the Senate side, the Republicans seem to be on track for a landslide defeat. There are very few safe seats for the Republicans, it has become so bad for them that traditionally competitive seats have already been abandoned by by party, and efforts instead have shifted to making sure the entire slate isn't swept away. On the House side, CBS can say we expect the Democrats to capture anywhere between 250 and 300 seats, and no - you did not hear incorrectly. Almost a year after the devastating and dastardly attacks on the United States, the Republican Party is getting hammered for what Democrats their complacency in allowing the attacks to take place..."

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Schieffer: "I'm now joined by the Vice-President of the United States John McCain. Mr. Vice-President, thank you for joining me."

John McCain (R VPOTUS): "I'm delighted to be here Bob."

Schieffer: "I was hoping you could help explain something, Mr. Vice-President, how is the decorum in the administration regarding the upcoming election? There has to be a lot of political jockeying, especially between you and President."

McCain: "Now Bob this is the problem we are facing right now, the President and I have been focused on the important issues to the American people. We have been engaged in this great battle against the forces of terrorism, and meeting with the families of our wounded soldiers, all while governing this great country of ours. Why would we be engaged in partisan bickering over issues that do not matter? We have just undergone one of the greatest tragedies in American history."

Schieffer: "Of course, Mr. Vice-President, but what can you say to critics on both sides of the aisle that you are in fact a secret Democrat, and the President a secret Republican?"

McCain: "That doesn't matter. I've spent my career showing how when we, as Americans, come together, we can achieve everything Bob. Take a look at what we have achieved so far. Iraq's rouge government has collapsed and we are pacifying the region, Al Qaeda is on the run, and we are deploying more soldiers to the region now."

Schieffer: "But Osama bin Laden has not been captured."

McCain: "You know Bob, bin Laden doesn't matter. He's just a symbol, if you will."

Schieffer: "Mr. Vice-President, you believe that Osama bin Laden, who was the mastermind behind these attacks, doesn't matter?"

McCain: "As both the President and I have been saying for some time, Afghanistan and Iraq no longer pose a threat to the United States of America. We have destroyed their ability to even think about harming our great country."

Schieffer: "What's to say he can't attack the United States again?"

McCain: "The administration has been focused on securing the safety of the United States..."

August 20th, 2002
New York Times: VICE PRESIDENT: "Osama bin Laden doesn't matter"
London Telegraph: US Vice-President proclaims bin Laden not an issue
San Francisco Chronicle: Democrats slam Vice-President McCain, Nancy Pelosi counters, "bin Laden is a huge issue"
Drudge Report: Broken Clock Right Twice a Day: Nancy Pelosi takes stand for America


September 4th, 2002
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Tom Brokaw: "Good Evening. American military involvement in Iraq is ramping up this year, with the Lieberman Administration announcing earlier today that 12,000 more soldiers will be deploying to the region. We're going to take a closer look at what this means for America, and is it just a show of force with the ever painful first anniversary of the September 11th attacks coming up? The administration doesn't think so, the President brushing off that suggestion when asked shortly after the announcement. This will now bring the total of American soldiers deployed in Iraq up to 180,000. When out coalition partners are included, troop levels now exceed 200,000 in the war-torn country. Why? The list goes on. Shia insurgents, Sunni Insurgents, and those still loyal to deposed leader Saddam Hussein."

Brokaw: "What we can expect from this, I can't say. The Pentagon has also requested more funds from Congress to deal with the increased forces in that country. Afghanistan is also getting its own surge, the forces in that country being increased to 15,000 from 10,000. Across the country, Democrats have seized onto this announcement with a vicious attack against Republicans, despite the Administration's constant admonishment. Press Secretary George Stephanopoulos had to repeat several times that the Administration was interested in protecting and securing America, not wanting to engage in partisan politics..."

September 11th, 2002
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Joseph Lieberman (D POTUS):"Good Evening. A year now separates us from the terrible assault on our country by the forces of evil. These enemies have rattled our nation, and we have daily reminders of the loss that they have inflicted upon us. Our souls, the soul of the nation, is forever tarnished by this one, black day. For many of us, it has been a tough and difficult year. For the families of those who were lost, it has been filled with sleepless nights, and newly born children who have no mother or father to meet here on this Earth. For our brave soldiers, it has been working to prevent the enemy from reaching us here, as they fight far over there.

For all Americans, it has been a difficult year of adjustment. We have all been thrust down this journey of reflection and understanding, where we must adjust to our new normal. Today, is a day of sorrow and remembrance. I seek to never diminish the faces and the names of those that were lost here in New York, or in Washington and Virginia, but this nation also remembers our 43rd President, Albert Gore.

This day shall always shine as one of our darkest moments, and our greatest moments. September 11th, 2001 showed us the unthinkable loss of life that terror can bring upon us, but it also showed us the bravery, strength, and compassion of Americans. The men and women who rushed up those flights of stairs to try and rescue those still trapped here in New York, the first responders who tried desperately to save as many lives as they could in Washington and Virginia, as well as the men and women across the country who stepped up to open their hearts and come together when it was needed the most.

Our enemies are still out there, but we will continue to persevere. America has a great belief in that All Men are Created Equal. Our enemies do not. America believes each person deserves their own pursuit of happiness, our enemies do not. Our nation is one built on the values of Freedom, and Democracy. Our enemies cling to fear and violence. Americans stand today united. Americans will, as we have before, live as free people, not in fear. We shall never be beholden to any tyrant or dictator. America has defeated dictators before, and America will do so again.

What our enemies have begun, we will finish. Where they fought with fear, we will fight with our values. Where they struck our country, we will ensure their countries are never defiled by their terrorism. America is united now in a sacred bond that was struck this day, as we are engaged in this new struggle. Our cause is the one of peace, guided by our principles, of the very things that have made this country the place that so many millions of people flock to our shores.

We shall not stand down. We shall not give in. We shall prevail.

May God Bless America."

60 Minutes Interview with George W. Bush, Governor of Texas, October 20th

Morley Safer: "Governor Bush, thank you for sitting down with me."

George Bush: "Happy to be here."

Safer: "Now let's address the elephant in the room, this is your first interview since losing the election. Looking back on it now, do you believe that the late Al Gore won that election fairly?"

Bush: "Now first and foremost, I want to make it clear I believe that Al Gore had won the election. I don't want to bring up any of that rancor now, we have a new election upcoming that is filled with more than enough of that."

Safer: "Republicans are in big trouble, we both know that. They refused to advance Gore's anti-terrorism measures, and many Americans blame them for the September 11th attacks."

Bush: "I don't think blame can be leveled that easily. It's far more complicated than that, but the problem we are facing now is that Americans are going to vote now with Democrats pointing the blame at the Republican Party for these attacks. What we aren't seeing is why we are in Iraq. I don't understand the reasoning behind it."

Safer: "Your former running mate, Dick Cheney, believes that the invasion of Iraq was a smart move, are you saying you don't agree?"

Bush: "No, I do not. Dick was a great running mate to have, but I don't agree with the Iraq policy. I mean, come on, we have almost two hundred thousand Americans in Iraq, for what? To topple Saddam Hussein? And where is he now? In a prison?"

Safer: "You would have done differently?"

Bush: "Look, I know myself well. I know how I would have reacted, but if I was in this situation, it would be different. Out country went through a terrible tragedy on September 11th."

Safer: "But to be clear, do you support President Lieberman? The War in Afghanistan? Iraq?"

Bush: "I support President Lieberman, and I support the war in Afghanistan. Above all, I support America's soldiers. These brave men and women put their lives on the line to keep us safe."

Safer: "Governor, Iraq?"

Bush: "I cannot say I support the Iraq war, no."

October 21th, 2002
Boston Globe: Governor Bush: "I don't support the Iraq War"
Detroit Free Press: Democrats unload on George Bush
Drudge Report: Gov. Bush a Peace Dove?

November 5th, 2002

Brian Williams: "Welcome to NBC News' coverage of the 2002 Midterm elections. We are coming off an explosive campaign, which has been filled with quite the few twists and turns. However tonight, we are reasonably certain what will be taking place. Republicans have been hammered over the past year and a half for their supposed negligence in funding the fight against terrorism. Let's take a look at the current Balance of Power. In the Senate, there are 55 Republicans, 44 Democrats, and one Independent. In the House, there are 221 Republicans, 212 Democrats, and 2 Independentd. As we see the night unfold, we will get a sense of how Washington will work for the next two years.."

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Tom Brokaw: "What we are seeing here is a huge backlash against the Republicans. We called that both houses would flip to the Democrats when the first polls closed, it was that big of a wave. Let's look at the House. Democrats have sailed away with a victory here, holding 278 seats. Republicans have been reduced to 156 seats, losing an unprecedented 65 seats. They were completely blown out across the Midwest, and Republicans, despite redistricting in some states, have lost numerous seats across the South, most surprisingly in Texas."

Brokaw: "In the Senate, Democrats washed over even the reddest seats. Jeff Sessions fell to Susan Parker in Alabama. In Arkansas, Mark Pryor comes away with a win. Colorado, Tom Strickland wins over Wayne Allard. Larry Craig has lost to Alan Blinken, and Walter Mondale has won election to replace the late Paul Wellstone. Jeanne Shaheen will be replacing Senator Bob Smith in New Hampshire. After tonight, Democrats will hold 56 seats, with the Republicans holding 43. In this year many had believed was a strong Republican year back in early 2001 now shows to be one of the worst years for the Republican Party."

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The 2002 Midterms were not so much a referendum on the President and the war his Administration started than it was the American Public reflexively punishing those they saw as having caused the September 11th, 2001 attacks. The Republicans were the scapegoats for the election, but they would find their own way to rebound. The life of Americans would go on, and politics would resume as usual. The dominating Democratic Majority began to try and establish itself as a lasting force, the effects of which will reverberate throughout this country for generations to come...

Governor George Bush's interview with 60 Minutes would prove to be more effective for the Republicans than the Democrats in the long term. Democrats used his words to smear Republicans as unpatriotic and sympathetic to terror, but opposition to both wars was just beginning. Americans had been blinded by the September 11th attacks, and it the trio of [Donald] Rumsfield, [John] McCain, and [Elliott] Abrams that drove the response to it. Neoconservative Foreign Policy soon encompassed the entire Administration, and it soon began to seep from the top down...

-Excerpts from "The Unconventional President" by Frank Costigliola

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Oh come on. Clinton won NY 56-44. There is no way that flips without a ludicrously big POD. And there is no way that NY loses the democratic senate seat without Gore also losing the Presidency.
 
Florida, Bill McCollum has defeated Bill Nelson.
OTL, Nelson won by 5% - 2,989,487 to 2,705,348. How does he lose while Gore carries the state?

In Delaware, in a surprise, William Roth has secured his re-election.
OTL, Roth lost by 12%; 142,891 to 181,566. What changed that?
but let's start in Michigan. Incumbent Senator Abraham we can project has been comfortably re-elected over challenger Congresswoman Debbie Sabenow.
OTL, Abraham lost by 2%; 1,994,693 to 2,061,952. What changed that?

In the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, we are surprised to report that we cannot, at this time, call the race between longtime Senator Edward Kennedy and Republican Jack Robinson.
OTL, Kennedy won that race with 1.9M to 334K for the Republican, who barely outdrew the Libertarian (308K). What could possibly happen to change 800K votes? Did Kennedy brag on TV about having triple-teamed Marilyn Monroe with his brothers, after which they killed her?
Bill Frist, Doctor Bill Frist, has been defeated by Jeff Clark.
OTL, Frist won by 34%, 1,255,444 to 621,152. What did Frist do, distribute a video of him performing third-term abortions while giggling?

In New Jersey, that open seat has been won by Bob Franks, defeating the financially powerful Jon Corzine.
OTL, Corzine won by 4%, 1,511,237 to 1,420,267, so that flip isn't particularly weird.

First Lady Hillary Clinton has been defeated in her bid to become New York's next Senator, with Republican Rick Lazio taking the seat in a close election.

OTL, Clinton won by 14%, 3,562,415 to 2,724,589. What did Clinton do to lose, admit to murdering Vince Foster?
CNN can project that [Bush] has won in the State of New Jersey..."
OTL, Gore won NJ by 16%. What changed?

In Wisconsin, John Gillespie has won over Herb Kohl.
OTL, Kohl won by 25%, 1,563,238 to 940,744. What changed? Did Kohl get caught pissing on Vince Lombardi's grave?
In Minnesota, Rod Grams has thwarted a strong attempt at his seat, winning reelection by a half a percent.
OTL, Grams lost by 6%, 1,047,474 to 1,181,553. So that flip is not too implausible.

Slade Gorton has won re-election in Washington as well.
OTL, Gorton lost by less than 0.1%, 1,197,208 to 1,199,437. So that flip is quite plausible.

Brian Schweitzer has won in Montana
OTL, Schweitzer lost by 3%, 194,430 to 208,082. So that flip is plausible.

"This gives Governor Bush 49% of the vote, and the Vice-President 47% of the vote..."

This is a substantial change from OTL, and very hard to square with Gore winning the electoral college.

OTL, Gore narrowly carried IA (0.4%), ME (5.1%), MI (6.2%), MN (2.4%), NM (0.1%), OR (0.4%), PA (4.2%), WA (5.4%), and WI (0.3%).

Your outcome leaves IA, MN, NM, and PA unchanged, and flips to Gore six states that Bush won: AR (5.4%), FL (0.01%), MO (3.3%), NC (12.8%), TN (3.8%), and WV (8.1%).

And for some reason flips NJ, which Gore carried by 15.8%?

And the PoD has to be after October 16, 2000, when Mel Carnahan died in a plane crash that would be butterflied.

It's all very cute, but extremely implausible.
 
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