Successor to Yuan Shikai?

Providing he doesn't essentially shoot himself in the foot like he did in OTL by declaring himself Emperor and numerous other ups of the cock and manages to retain control of his base in Northern China. Would there be anyone in particular who he'd either choose to succeed him, or be able to strong-arm their way into getting power once Yuan kicks the bucket?
 
If Yuan Shikai dies in 1916, having not split the country into civil war, I can see Yunnanese general Cai E - the man who started the rebellion against Yuan's abortive empire in 1915 - making a bid for power. He would be supported by Liang Qichao and the progressive / democratic parties in China giving him a stronger base of support. Cai did die in 1916 in OTL, but he was still very young - so in a TL where Cai is President of the Republic, I could see him living for another decade or too. If he manages to restore the constitution and implement some of Liang Qichao's OTL plans for reform, the Republic of China will be much more stable - and will probably avoid the worst of the warlord era. However, there will still be conflict on the fringes of China - Zhang Zuolin in Manchuria, distant enough to become de facto independent AIOTL. If he does, this will bring in the Japanese, who might begin a slide towards authoritarianism and interventionism like in OTL... but then again, maybe a liberal and sort of democratic China under Cai E could eventually ally with a democratic and sort of liberal Japan in kicking the imperialists out of the Eastern Hemisphere?? :p
 
Interesting, I was asking this for background into a major TL I'm writing and the biggest name I came across that would seem to be a successor for Shikai was Duan Qirui. What did Cai E die of exactly?
 
Interesting, I was asking this for background into a major TL I'm writing and the biggest name I came across that would seem to be a successor for Shikai was Duan Qirui. What did Cai E die of exactly?
He died of a sudden laryngo phthisis in 1916. Cai was acceptable to both the North and the South, to both the Beiyank ranks, Progressives and the KMT, and is arguably more competent than Li Yuanhong. He was Liang Qichao's most trusted and most intelligent student, and had effective control of Sichuan, Yunnan, Hunan and Guizhou where military and civilian leaders were loyal to Cai. Even Yuan Shikai recognized Cai's ability, putting him a bigger threat than the entire KMT plus the New Army progressives together. His health was not particularly weak, but IIRC there was no way to cure laryngo phthisic by then.
 
He died of a sudden laryngo phthisis in 1916. Cai was acceptable to both the North and the South, to both the Beiyank ranks, Progressives and the KMT, and is arguably more competent than Li Yuanhong. He was Liang Qichao's most trusted and most intelligent student, and had effective control of Sichuan, Yunnan, Hunan and Guizhou where military and civilian leaders were loyal to Cai. Even Yuan Shikai recognized Cai's ability, putting him a bigger threat than the entire KMT plus the New Army progressives together. His health was not particularly weak, but IIRC there was no way to cure laryngo phthisic by then.
But tuberculosis - from what I have read, laryngeal pthisis is an outdated term for tuberculosis of the larynx - is not genetic, it is bacterial. So if the TL wants Cai E alive, it's a simple enough POD to have him avoid the sick Chinese peasant or solider, and doesn't himself contract the disease. Then you get a surviving Cai E (he might be known as Cai Songpo in TTL, because if he became President of China, he would be known by his courtesy name, not his warlord moniker :p)...
 
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