Succession, if Elizabeth I dies in 1570?

Although Hertford was quick to marry and repent at leisure (and the offence to Elizabeth was strong enough to make her ignore him) he wasn't particularly stupid or ill-educated (he was raised with his cousin Edward VI and his grand tour after Elizabeth's accession was accompanied by one of the Cecil sons if i remember correctly). Rash in love or lust perhaps but he was faithful to his three wives - and little to suggest that he or his sons weren't reasonably intelligent and quite capable of ruling - and during his life Edward Seymour married in haste but remained with his wife for his life and there is no suggestion his behaviour towards her was less than proper.

The Hastings issue is that he has no legally valid claim to the throne (just an obscure descent from a dispossessed dynasty) and he is going to struggle to gain a majority of the council or Parliament to support him and from the moment he is proclaimed (and the population won't have a clue who he is) he is going to face a raft of people who have a better claim. For Elizabeth to name him she has to exclude her own family and dynasty (of which she was pretty proud) - even during her smallpox attack the council were pretty much closer to choosing Catherine Grey.

Margaret Clifford hadn't offended Elizabeth at this point - her fall from grace was in the late 70s when she spoke out against the Queen's proposed French marriage etc. Her stormy and difficult marriage was a bigger problem.

Margaret Douglas had indeed blotted her copybook too many times to stand a chance quite frankly.

To be absolutely honest given Elizabeth's character if she knows she is dying I genuinely believe that she will name Mary Stuart (or possibly James VI) - they have the moral claim, they are of equal status to Elizabeth and are not subjects. If she dies without naming anyone or her council get to decide - then I would rate the chances as follow - Edward Seymour (50%), Margaret Douglas (5 to 10%). Margaret Clifford (30%), distant claimants and prominent peers (10%)

Elizabeth wants a) to be succeeded by a fellow royal (her vanity and her view of monarchy dictate that b) she loathes almost all her existing relations and claimants c) that she is succeeded by a moderate in religion - where those clash a) will in my view win out.

The bulk of the council want a) a Protestant, b) ideally a man (natural prejudice of the time and the experience of many of them of the perceived perils of female monarchy dictate that)
 
Although Hertford was quick to marry and repent at leisure (and the offence to Elizabeth was strong enough to make her ignore him) he wasn't particularly stupid or ill-educated (he was raised with his cousin Edward VI and his grand tour after Elizabeth's accession was accompanied by one of the Cecil sons if i remember correctly). Rash in love or lust perhaps but he was faithful to his three wives - and little to suggest that he or his sons weren't reasonably intelligent and quite capable of ruling - and during his life Edward Seymour married in haste but remained with his wife for his life and there is no suggestion his behaviour towards her was less than proper.

The Hastings issue is that he has no legally valid claim to the throne (just an obscure descent from a dispossessed dynasty) and he is going to struggle to gain a majority of the council or Parliament to support him and from the moment he is proclaimed (and the population won't have a clue who he is) he is going to face a raft of people who have a better claim. For Elizabeth to name him she has to exclude her own family and dynasty (of which she was pretty proud) - even during her smallpox attack the council were pretty much closer to choosing Catherine Grey.

Margaret Clifford hadn't offended Elizabeth at this point - her fall from grace was in the late 70s when she spoke out against the Queen's proposed French marriage etc. Her stormy and difficult marriage was a bigger problem.

Margaret Douglas had indeed blotted her copybook too many times to stand a chance quite frankly.

To be absolutely honest given Elizabeth's character if she knows she is dying I genuinely believe that she will name Mary Stuart (or possibly James VI) - they have the moral claim, they are of equal status to Elizabeth and are not subjects. If she dies without naming anyone or her council get to decide - then I would rate the chances as follow - Edward Seymour (50%), Margaret Douglas (5 to 10%). Margaret Clifford (30%), distant claimants and prominent peers (10%)

Elizabeth wants a) to be succeeded by a fellow royal (her vanity and her view of monarchy dictate that b) she loathes almost all her existing relations and claimants c) that she is succeeded by a moderate in religion - where those clash a) will in my view win out.

The bulk of the council want a) a Protestant, b) ideally a man (natural prejudice of the time and the experience of many of them of the perceived perils of female monarchy dictate that)

Alright interesting, would Liz be willing to ignore Mary's role in the Ridolfi plot, if she has fallen ill around 1572? After all, Mary was a major threat to her during her imprisonment, and James is being raised Calvinist as has been pointed out, that's a big clash. I do suppose the instant where Liz doesn't name an heir might be thin on the ground, if she knows she's dying.
 
Top