I’m not an expert on the history of Venezuela in any conceivable way, but I think Chávez would cling on until the end myself, just like OTL.
While I’m hardly a leftist either, Chavez was very successful politically early on as a fighter for the poor. Though his regime became increasingly autocratic, he did win elections (fair and square? I dunno) continually until his death, the famed failed referendum aside.
The crisis Chávez would face in 1992 is legitimacy. Military takeovers need some sort of cover to justify their actions. The challenge for Chavez in ‘92 would be obtaining this legitimacy in the eyes of the world and even to many of his own people.
If, say, he were to hold/rig an election in 1993, he might be able to scrape by with a weakened start. But if succeeds at this, then he could position himself much like OTL just with more time to entrench himself.