Successful Vivaldi expedition in 1291

Genoa sent a 2 ship expedition to find a sea route to India under the Vivaldi brothers which never returned. They might have reached Somalia though - what are the effects if they succeed?
 
Vivaldi's expedition is more generally tought to have gone the western way, having crossed Gibraltar's straight.

It's would be astonishing that you'd have only one expedition in Sudan at this point : few are documented, but it's more about a lack of familial archives than really lack trying : Lancelotto Malocello or Sorleone de Vivaldo, for exemple (for western roads, which were far less interesting for exploration and merchants in the early XIVth century)

Overall it was really the beggining of the Italian golden age of exploration, so I don't think it would have really changed something if Vivaldi brothers would have returned (and probably not having reached Indias by western sea roads either : they tried to pull a Colombus without having the technological edge that allowed the latter to survive)
 
An interesting aspect of arriving in Asia at that point is that there would have been a lot less money in the China trade.

The backbone of the trade with India, the East Indies, and China was shipping silver and gold there, to be exchanged for either luxury goods or substances of varying levels of addictiveness. One end of the trade would be fairly similar - the desire in the Far West for Asian goods - but the trade going the other direction would be far different. For incoming trade, nothing could beat silver in Asia if you could get it by the ship load. But demand for silver was extremely conditional.

Ships arriving before the early Song could have done some business in silver in China, but by the end of the 13th century China was firmly on the paper standard. Silver became a decorative material. That might allow it to have some value (although almost certainly not enough to justify trans-oceanic shipping), but with paper money in use, any bulk imported silver would if anything be a threat to the currency and be blocked.

The OTL opportunity was orders of magnitude better. China was reverting to silver currency after so long on paper that there simply wasn't enough metal to make the economy function as desired. The result, magnified by population booms from agricultural innovation and the adoption of New World crops, was almost bottomless demand with an enormous price disparity on silver between China and the rest of the world.

The most surprising effect of a successful Vivaldi expedition might be how little actually changed....
 
The most surprising effect of a successful Vivaldi expedition might be how little actually changed....

Well, for China. The changes for Africa would be huge, given the already present technological edge the European seabourne invaders would have over locals. And in the long run, the discovery of the Atlantic islands and America will happen much earlier once you have shipping routes around Africa.

The Portuguese spent half a century exploring West Africa, and that had considerable impact on their economy already. Nothing much compared to the Columbian exchange, but still quite significant. If the Vivaldi expedition opens up the African coast, the outcome would be similar.
 
Well, for China. The changes for Africa would be huge, given the already present technological edge the European seabourne invaders would have over locals.
Not that much edge : Musa I ruled over a Mali at the apogee of its power, after having taken over other Sahelian states, and often submitting other to obedience.

Giving that XIIIth european seafare, while important, didn't yet reached Late Medieval material and immaterial technology, the very idea of an european invasion that didn't happened IOTL in the XV/XVIth time against major african states seems implausible at best.

Furthermore, we're talking of Genoese merchants and merchant envoys, rather the the state-driven explorations of XVth century there : meaning less prone to attack than ask for trade points and privilegied treatment...that with the Islamisation of Mali isn't that going to happen (at the greater benefit of Arab and Venetian traders).

If the Vivaldi expedition opens up the African coast, the outcome would be similar.
Portugal had the structural capacity to exploit these discoveries, trough state-sponsored trade and plantation economy. Genoa would have less this opportunity, and technological level of the XIIIth century would prevent a similar situation.

An earlier introduction on Western African trade for Europeans? Maybe. An earlier motive for Iberian intervention in North Africa...Peraphs, but it was already on air.
 
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