Successful Savoy in Spain

I'm aware that there are threads floating around on the board concerning the Hohenzollerns successfully becoming the Spanish royal dynasty, but I'm curious about that other odd bird in the royal menagerie - Amadeo of Savoy, King of Spain, Duke of Aosta. Would it really have been so difficult for him to establish a lasting dynasty on Spanish soil? What would the effects be of a lasting Savoyard-ruled Spain?
 
I'm aware that there are threads floating around on the board concerning the Hohenzollerns successfully becoming the Spanish royal dynasty, but I'm curious about that other odd bird in the royal menagerie - Amadeo of Savoy, King of Spain, Duke of Aosta. Would it really have been so difficult for him to establish a lasting dynasty on Spanish soil? What would the effects be of a lasting Savoyard-ruled Spain?
What about have Catherine Michelle inherit the Spanish throne..
 
IIRC Amedeo was not enthusiastic about taking the Spanish crown, probably because he could see the difficulties in managing successfully such a task (although many in Spain looked at him with some sympathy: he was nicknamed el roy caballero to honor his personal courage on the battlefield). Besides the strong opposition of the Carlist faction and of the Republicans, Amedeo was also opposed by the church (the house of Savoy had been excommunicated after the annexation of Rome to the kingdom of Italy) and even by the partisans of the house of Bourbon (the Bourbons of Naples and the Bourbons of Parma had been deposed in 1859-60 during the war of unification of Italy). His strongest backer (gen. Juan Prim) was assassinated while Amedeo was sailing to Spain to accept the crown, and to top an already difficult situation an insurrection started in Cuba. Amedeo was criticized for his failure to learn the Spanish language and to woo the Spanish aristocracy hard enough, but in all honesty there was not a lot he could have done to change a situation which became more and more unmanageable by the day. Maybe if Prim is not assassinated things could evolve in a better way, but I would not bet on it.
IMHO the Hohenzollern candidate would not have fared better (and possibly even worse: at least Amedeo had very strong liberal credentials).
 
IIRC Amedeo was not enthusiastic about taking the Spanish crown, probably because he could see the difficulties in managing successfully such a task (although many in Spain looked at him with some sympathy: he was nicknamed el roy caballero to honor his personal courage on the battlefield). Besides the strong opposition of the Carlist faction and of the Republicans, Amedeo was also opposed by the church (the house of Savoy had been excommunicated after the annexation of Rome to the kingdom of Italy) and even by the partisans of the house of Bourbon (the Bourbons of Naples and the Bourbons of Parma had been deposed in 1859-60 during the war of unification of Italy). His strongest backer (gen. Juan Prim) was assassinated while Amedeo was sailing to Spain to accept the crown, and to top an already difficult situation an insurrection started in Cuba. Amedeo was criticized for his failure to learn the Spanish language and to woo the Spanish aristocracy hard enough, but in all honesty there was not a lot he could have done to change a situation which became more and more unmanageable by the day. Maybe if Prim is not assassinated things could evolve in a better way, but I would not bet on it.
IMHO the Hohenzollern candidate would not have fared better (and possibly even worse: at least Amedeo had very strong liberal credentials).


Okay, so Amadeo gets chosen, Prim dodges assassination, and on the way to Spain, the new king starts learning Spanish, could this help? Maybe also betrothing his first born son to the Infanta Eulalia?

How would he soothe tensions with the Vatican though? And would he be able to do any good in Spain?
 
Okay, so Amadeo gets chosen, Prim dodges assassination, and on the way to Spain, the new king starts learning Spanish, could this help? Maybe also betrothing his first born son to the Infanta Eulalia?

How would he soothe tensions with the Vatican though? And would he be able to do any good in Spain?
Since the Savoy candidacy had been floating around since 1868 and the king of Italy was very keen on it, it would have been a very good idea for Amedeo to start learning Spanish since then: if he had been fluent in the language on his arrival, it will make a very good impression. Keeping Prim alive is also a necessity. A marriage between Emanuele Filiberto, Prince of Asturias, and Infanta Eulalia would be a great idea (the Infanta is 5 years older than the prince, but it does not really matter) and might be a stepping stone toward a national reconciliation, but must be carefully prepared both with the aristocracy and the church (and the latter as I said might prove a harder nut to crush; OTOH if Amedeo and his government can find some way to reconcile the church without renouncing to the liberal policies which are his trademark, it might have a positive impact over the relations between the Savoy and the pope in Italy).

AFAIK, there are three crisis which Amedeo would have to weather at the beginning of his reign: the split in 1871 of the liberal party between constitutionalists and monarchists, which might be avoided if Prim survives; the Carlist uprising of 1872, which is almost sure to come but might be repressed at the beginning by a more stable government; the insurrection in Cuba, which had started in 1868 but peaked in 1872-73 when the Carlist insurrection made difficult for the central government to send troops to Cuba. I would say the last one might potentially offer the best opportunities to Amedeo: the grievances of the insurgents were quite real, and a policy of liberal reforms and appeasement might be successful provided that there is a stable government in Madrid. Note that I am not an expert in Spanish politics in the 1870s, much less in the situation in Cuba, and it is quite possible that I'm over-optimist on the benefits that a Prim survival might bring and on the beneficial influence that Amedeo might have. The problem with Amedeo is that he never showed a keen interest in politics before, during or after his brief kingship: he proved to be a courageous soldier in 1866, but he never followed a military career; he made a love marriage with his first wife, but notwithstanding this and the care that he devoted to his ailing wife (she died in 1876 of tuberculosis) he was well know for his "romantic escapades" (he could not keep it in his pants :p).
He does not look the right material for a "reformer king", although he certainly has le phisique du role. What he might do though is to take a leaf from Louis Napoleon's playbook and go for a plebiscite: it would be a bold move, but potentially a successful one.

800px-Amadeo_I_de_Espa%C3%B1a%2C_de_Vicente_Palmaroli_%28Museo_del_Prado%29.jpg


Amedeo I of Savoy, king of Spain
 
Since the Savoy candidacy had been floating around since 1868 and the king of Italy was very keen on it, it would have been a very good idea for Amedeo to start learning Spanish since then: if he had been fluent in the language on his arrival, it will make a very good impression. Keeping Prim alive is also a necessity. A marriage between Emanuele Filiberto, Prince of Asturias, and Infanta Eulalia would be a great idea (the Infanta is 5 years older than the prince, but it does not really matter) and might be a stepping stone toward a national reconciliation, but must be carefully prepared both with the aristocracy and the church (and the latter as I said might prove a harder nut to crush; OTOH if Amedeo and his government can find some way to reconcile the church without renouncing to the liberal policies which are his trademark, it might have a positive impact over the relations between the Savoy and the pope in Italy).

AFAIK, there are three crisis which Amedeo would have to weather at the beginning of his reign: the split in 1871 of the liberal party between constitutionalists and monarchists, which might be avoided if Prim survives; the Carlist uprising of 1872, which is almost sure to come but might be repressed at the beginning by a more stable government; the insurrection in Cuba, which had started in 1868 but peaked in 1872-73 when the Carlist insurrection made difficult for the central government to send troops to Cuba. I would say the last one might potentially offer the best opportunities to Amedeo: the grievances of the insurgents were quite real, and a policy of liberal reforms and appeasement might be successful provided that there is a stable government in Madrid. Note that I am not an expert in Spanish politics in the 1870s, much less in the situation in Cuba, and it is quite possible that I'm over-optimist on the benefits that a Prim survival might bring and on the beneficial influence that Amedeo might have. The problem with Amedeo is that he never showed a keen interest in politics before, during or after his brief kingship: he proved to be a courageous soldier in 1866, but he never followed a military career; he made a love marriage with his first wife, but notwithstanding this and the care that he devoted to his ailing wife (she died in 1876 of tuberculosis) he was well know for his "romantic escapades" (he could not keep it in his pants :p).
He does not look the right material for a "reformer king", although he certainly has le phisique du role. What he might do though is to take a leaf from Louis Napoleon's playbook and go for a plebiscite: it would be a bold move, but potentially a successful one.

How might Amadeo appease the insurgents in Cuba? Their grievances are quite real, but as a king scarcely a few years old he can't really bend over backwards for them and risk alienating anyone who might support him in Spain. That said, I would imagine he would have to avoid gaffes like OTL where someone pointed out Cervantes' house to him and said that he's the most famous writer in Spain, Amadeo replied "well then, since he has not yet called on me, I will call on him".

And if Amadeo doesn't show a keen interest in politics, maybe leaves the hurly-burly of it to politicians such as Prim and co., might Spain develop into more of a constitutional monarchy sooner? Or was that part of the reason for his overthrow OTL
 
How might Amadeo appease the insurgents in Cuba? Their grievances are quite real, but as a king scarcely a few years old he can't really bend over backwards for them and risk alienating anyone who might support him in Spain. That said, I would imagine he would have to avoid gaffes like OTL where someone pointed out Cervantes' house to him and said that he's the most famous writer in Spain, Amadeo replied "well then, since he has not yet called on me, I will call on him".

And if Amadeo doesn't show a keen interest in politics, maybe leaves the hurly-burly of it to politicians such as Prim and co., might Spain develop into more of a constitutional monarchy sooner? Or was that part of the reason for his overthrow OTL

According to Wiki, there were 4 major grievances in Cuba:
In May 1865, Cuban creole elites placed four demands upon the Spanish Parliament: tariff reform, Cuban representation in Parliament, judicial equality with Spaniards, and full enforcement of the slave trade ban
They are classic demands of colonial America, and it should be not really difficult to reach a mutually acceptable solution; however in 1865 the Spanish parliament was dominated by reactionaries, and the negotiation with Cubans never reached any result. In 1871 the situation is quite different, with liberals in power led by Prim (who had been governor of Puertorico and should be reasonably familiar with the situation in Cuba, and a new king who should be of reasonably liberal bent. While it would not be easy to find a satisfactory solution it should be possible to improve the situation and avoid the flare up of 1872-73: the continuous depredation of Cuban resources has to be reduced, and the government revenues should at least partially reinvested in Cuba; same thing with the slavery issue, which might be addressed with a transition plan similar to the one implemented from 1880 IOTL (newborn to be free, and existing slaves to become indentured workers for a limited time. Avoiding the destruction of the 1872-1878 period and reinvesting some money in Cuba infrastructures should also benefit government revenues over the medium term (and there would not be the huge drain on finances to repress the insurgency: by the end of the war there were 250,000 Spanish soldiers in Cuba).
I would be more concerned with the Carlist insurrection, but even here I believe that a quick and decisive intervention followed by moderate measure of pacification might be successful.

The gaffes of Amedeo are the obvious outcome of his ignorance of the language and the history of the country he has to reign on: an early start and an adequate tutoring should be enough to make a much better impression.
It will be the task of Juan Prim to keep under control parliament and successfully deal with Cuba and the Carlists. It may be a tall demand, but who knows? Amedeo should mostly show his confidence in Prim, and woo the Spanish aristocracy
 
According to Wiki, there were 4 major grievances in Cuba:

They are classic demands of colonial America, and it should be not really difficult to reach a mutually acceptable solution; however in 1865 the Spanish parliament was dominated by reactionaries, and the negotiation with Cubans never reached any result. In 1871 the situation is quite different, with liberals in power led by Prim (who had been governor of Puertorico and should be reasonably familiar with the situation in Cuba, and a new king who should be of reasonably liberal bent. While it would not be easy to find a satisfactory solution it should be possible to improve the situation and avoid the flare up of 1872-73: the continuous depredation of Cuban resources has to be reduced, and the government revenues should at least partially reinvested in Cuba; same thing with the slavery issue, which might be addressed with a transition plan similar to the one implemented from 1880 IOTL (newborn to be free, and existing slaves to become indentured workers for a limited time. Avoiding the destruction of the 1872-1878 period and reinvesting some money in Cuba infrastructures should also benefit government revenues over the medium term (and there would not be the huge drain on finances to repress the insurgency: by the end of the war there were 250,000 Spanish soldiers in Cuba).
I would be more concerned with the Carlist insurrection, but even here I believe that a quick and decisive intervention followed by moderate measure of pacification might be successful.

The gaffes of Amedeo are the obvious outcome of his ignorance of the language and the history of the country he has to reign on: an early start and an adequate tutoring should be enough to make a much better impression.
It will be the task of Juan Prim to keep under control parliament and successfully deal with Cuba and the Carlists. It may be a tall demand, but who knows? Amedeo should mostly show his confidence in Prim, and woo the Spanish aristocracy

How might Prim then deal with the revolt? And how much of a flare-up would there be, if any? And what effects might there be of adopting reforms in the 1870s as opposed to the 1880s? How might this affect Spanish-American relations? Do we see an alt Spanish-American War (perhaps at an earlier date?)

Amadeo, as mentioned, was a reasonably competent soldier, would he take the field against the Carlists? And would we see any reforms to the Spanish army? How might the presence of their king on the battlefield alongside affect the performance of troops? Might the Carlists and Isabellinos attempt to sort out their differences sooner? And if Amadeo backs Prim to the hilt? What then? Prim a sort of earlier Primo de Rivera?
 
How might Prim then deal with the revolt? And how much of a flare-up would there be, if any? And what effects might there be of adopting reforms in the 1870s as opposed to the 1880s? How might this affect Spanish-American relations? Do we see an alt Spanish-American War (perhaps at an earlier date?)

Amadeo, as mentioned, was a reasonably competent soldier, would he take the field against the Carlists? And would we see any reforms to the Spanish army? How might the presence of their king on the battlefield alongside affect the performance of troops? Might the Carlists and Isabellinos attempt to sort out their differences sooner? And if Amadeo backs Prim to the hilt? What then? Prim a sort of earlier Primo de Rivera?

I cannot write a timeline off the cuff, Can I?
I suppose that the first thing to do in Cuba was to try to arrange a cease fire, and good faith negotiations: it will not convince all the insurgents, but at least it would be useful to try to divide the moderates from the die hards. A representation of the Cubans at the Cortes in Madrid is not too difficult to manage quickly, and the same should be a promise to invest in Cuban infrastructures. The slavery issue is a bit more difficult to solve on the spot, but promising a gradual manumission and some compensation might make the trick: details can be sorted out later. Obviously Prim cannot leave Spain and go to Cuba, but I suppose that he has someone in his confidence who is bright enough to work out a mediation operating within a broad set of instructions. The key thing is to stop open hostilities and avoid the escalation of atrocities (on both sides). It might be also a good idea to hire some good officers from ex-confederates (or even unionists: after the end of the civil war the possibilities for promotion were pretty low). Avoiding atrocities and showing a willingness to liberalize should also be good to improve relations with the USA (and possibly invite American investments, since Spanish finances are pretty stretched out).

If Prim manages to keep the liberals together, avoiding the split between constitutionalists and monarchists, there should be more stability in the Cortes, and the reaction to the Carlist insurrection would be more prompt and decisive.
The Isabella faction might be mollified and brought on board by the promise of a marriage between the Infanta and the very young prince of Asturias.
It's all Prim, Prim and Prim: the poor guy will have to juggle a lot of balls without dropping them. He should play the role of a Cavour in Italy or a Bismarck in Prussia, and it is to be hoped that Amedeo will not be stingy in giving him all of his confidence.
On the military side, Amedeo showed courage in 1866 but he was not in command of an army: IIRC he had the command of a division of cavalry. It is to be hoped that he realizes this and does not makes the same mistake of his father in 1859 and 1866 (the king was always at the front, and at times personally interfered with the chain of command, never with good results). So he should stay in Madrid, help Prim to keep the lid on the Cortes and look kingly. It might be a good idea to use the good services of gen. Cialdini (who had been in Madrid from 1868 to 1870 as personal representative of the king of Italy to promote the candidacy of Amedeo) as his personal representative at the front, but without interfering with the official chain of command
 
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