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Established in 435, the Vandal Kingdom of North Africa wasn't particularly powerful, and its base of power was small. It seems like its entire existence was dumb luck. I say this because they were luckily enough to be invited to the province by the Roman governor attempting to use their power for personal gain, lucky enough to secure a great treaty with Valentinian III keeping them their, and lucky enough for the Romans to be distracted enough elsewhere not to extinguish 20,000 of them (Procopius says 80k, but that's doubtful) in their richest coastal province without a fleet. It's dumb luck that the isolated Arian Germanic people were able to hold on to the province and that the Roman expeditions were incompetent. There may have been some tactical genius by the Vandals and missteps by the Romans, but they were certainly lucky.

In the 460's, Western Emperor Majorian organized a large invasion fleet and army, but was spectacular routed pre-emptively in Spain, and a massive Roman fleet was destroyed at Cape Bon by Vandals in Roman ships. Some sources claim this invasion, funded by the East and manned by the West, was the largest naval invasion in antiquity. It seems incredible that it failed so spectacularly against a foe in such a perilous position, however good a Vandal warrior was. The Vandals would go mostly unchallenged in their rule of Africa until they are finally pushed over by Belisaurius in 50 years later.

Had the tides turned differently, and Roman rule to Africa was restored, what could've gone differently? Another Germanic tribe almost certainly wouldn't have been able to as easily conquer the province. The Western Empire would not have a barbarian fleet raiding its coastal cities and disrupting its economy. And a major source of food, trade, manpower, and tax revenue for the empire would not be lost. By 468, the Hunnic threat had dissipated. Would a restoration of stable Roman rule in Africa pave the way for restorations of other barbarian-overrun provinces?

Below: a simplified map of the empire in 460.
Roman_Empire_460_AD.png
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