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Inspired by this very cool map / TL I've been thinking about the potential for a more successful 1525 German Peasants War. And I've found a good POD:

April 1525:

Truchsess' cunning saved him here from certain ruin. Had he not succeeded in fooling the weak, limited, for the most part demoralised peasants and their usually incapable, timid and venal leaders, he would have been closed in with his small army between four columns numbering at least from 25,000 to 30,000 men, and would have perished. It was the narrow-mindedness of his enemies, always inevitable among the peasant masses, that made it possible for him to dispose of them at the very moment when, with one blow, they could have ended the entire war, at least as far as Swabia and Franconia were concerned. The Lake peasants adhered to the agreement, which finally turned out to be their undoing, so rigidly that they later took up arms against their allies, the Hegau peasants. And although the Allgaeu peasants, involved in the betrayal by their leaders, soon renounced the agreement, Truchsess was then out danger.

Source: https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1850/peasant-war-germany/ch05.htm

This goes the other way. The peasants close in and wipe out Truchsess’s army, taking its armaments for themselves and continuing the war. Rather than the Swabian part of the peasant revolt ending around this point, it continues and grows.

This causes Thomas Muntzer, leading the peasant revolt in Thuringia, to adopt a different strategy in the next month, and avoid getting himself and most of his troops slaughtered. Rather than a slow descent into demoralization, the peasants feel like they are on the rise, and grow in numbers and strength. Perhaps even more importantly, they have a bit more time to organize themselves into an effective military force rather than a motley band of peasants carrying whatever farm implements they could turn into weapons.

Peasant armies wander all over Germany, sometimes defeating and sometimes defeated by the armies of reaction, but generally in state of steady advance. Cities that end up in peasant controlled areas are quick to make deals rather than be crushed, and many have their own revolutions that implement more democratic constitutions, though most don’t go as far as the revolutionaries would like in terms of abolition of private property and other communistic goals.

Eventually various peasant forces end up in control of most of the southern half of Germany. Muntzer calls a grand council to coordinate and describe on strategy. The body that comes into existence, with representatives from all over the peasant controlled areas, essentially becomes the governing body of the federation, and eventually evolves into the new federation’s legislature. Muntzer takes a prime ministerial role as first among equal in the council, becomes the federation’s first chief executive by popular acclaim.

The first few years of the federation’s existence are marked by a desperate military struggle for survival. This struggle gets easier as time goes on however, as the peasant force main disadvantages – lack of weapons, organization, and military experience, are compensated for. After a certain point, whether the rest of Europe likes it or not, we end up with a peasant Republic in control of most of southern Germany. Wars continue to be waged against this Republic, but that’s what they are, wars, not the suppression of revolts. As more years pass, the leaders of nearby states become less and less interested in attempting the difficult conquest of this region for the benefit of their noble cousins are hanging around their courts, eating their food and complaining about those filthy peasants.

In 1529 the Ottoman Turks besiege Vienna. With less aid from elsewhere in Europe due to the chaos of the ongoing peasant war, Vienna falls to the Turks. Already a bit overextended the Turks don’t go much farther, but having Vienna as a strong fortified outpost in the heart of Europe proves very helpful for them. They come into contact with the peasant Republic, and while neither side has much positive to say about the other, they manage to maintain fairly peaceful relations in an enemy of my enemy is my friend sort of way. Because they understand that the peasants are unlikely to be launching any major attacks, with their hands full surviving and governing their own territories, the Turks opt to leave Germany mostly alone, and concentrate their further assaults on Italy, and particularly their old enemy Venice. This very much captures the attention of Christian Europe, and the Catholic Church hierarchy in particular, who not thrilled at the prospect of Turkish armies marching south through Italy and threatening Rome. The increased concentration of military resources south of the Alps is another factor in helping the peasants get through that critical early period.

As the peasants start to realize that they are actually going to survive this thing, their governing arrangements become more formal. Democratic republicanism is the order of the day, with local self-government for both city and country, and an elected body in control of the central government. In rural areas there is a sort of rough peasant democracy, and rough peasant communism. Life goes on much as before, but with the difference that the peasants may now consume their own surplus rather than hand it over to the nobles. This comes in the form of individuals having less of a tax burden, and in the form of what taxes are still being paid being put at the disposal of democratic governments rather than feudal overlords.

The cities are more diverse. With most having become part of the peasant republic more or less voluntarily, they are largely free to make their own choices. Some carry on largely as before, while others have full scale popular uprisings now that they are free of the risk of local princes coming to stomp the urban poor flat. Most take a middle ground, with universal suffrage introduced and many of the more egregious abuses of local city government corrected, but with the larger social structure and division between rich and poor intact.

The reaction of the rest of Europe to these developments is pretty wild. There are attempted revolts among both peasants and urban poor all across the continent, but the now more alert and paranoid rulers put them down brutally and without too much difficulty. Immigrants start to pour into and out of the peasant republic. The people pouring in are mostly religious dissenters, general troublemakers, and people hoping for a better life under a more egalitarian system. The people pouring out are mostly nobles who have lost their castles, monks who have lost their monasteries, burghers who have lost their businesses, and committed Catholics who just don’t approve of all this heresy. Neither side has much incentive to stop this movement, and are for the most part pleased to see the backs of local dissenters, and have them replaced with more ideologically compatible immigrants.

May continue this a bit more later. Thoughts?
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