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obviously coming to mind thanks to Ezio, one thing i've been considering exploring for my ASB ATL is what would/could happen to Renaissance Italy if the Pazzi succeeded in destroying the Medici. for quick reference and for those who don't know, here's a quick run-down of the events of the conspiracy IOTL:
the ultimate goal of the Pazzi was to replace the Medici as rulers of Florence, and were aided by the Salviati and Florentine Papal bankers, and Pope Sixtus IV was a personal enemy of the Medici
the conspiracy entailed the assassination of both Lorenzo and Giuliano de' Medici, though Sixtus IV purportedly only supported the plot if no one were to be killed; IOTL, only Giuliano was killed
the conspiracy started on April 26, 1478, during High Mass in the Duomo, and in front of ten thousand people, no less; as stated, Giuliano was killed here, and Lorenzo was seriously injured but managed to escape
after the attempted assassination, there was a coordinated attempt to capture the Gonfaloniere and Signoria, but these failed when the Salviati were trapped in a locked room. soon after, the conspirators were attacked and killed by enraged Florentines; specifically, Jacopo de' Pazzi was thrown out a window, dragged through the streets, and thrown into the Arno River, and Salviati was hanged from the Palazzo Vecchio; the rest of the major conspirators were later hunted down throughout Italy
at least 600 troops commanded by Federico da Montefeltro were committed to the conspiracy, expected to enter Florence at the right moment
after the conspiracy ended IOTL, Florence was forbidden from holding mass or communion by the Pope because the Salviati archbishop had been killed in the aftermath, and King Ferdinand I of Naples was enlisted by Sixtus IV to attack Florence; Lorenzo more or less resolved this by placing himself in the custody of Don Ferrante
the conspiracy IOTL resulted in the Medici supporters that greater concentrations of political power were desirable, and Lorenzo gained more power in foreign affairs in general
the most plausible POD is probably that Lorenzo is mortally wounded in the Duomo and the Gonfaloniere and Signoria are captured by the Pazzi and the other conspirators. does anyone have any ideas as to what would happen afterward? though i'm specifically looking at what would happen if the Pazzi succeed, the actual historical events seem to indicate that the Florentines wouldn't accept Pazzi rule and would drive them out or kill them. the events from then on, most likely, would instead focus on the lack of Lorenzo from that point on (IOTL, he lived to 1492)