Successful Pazzi Conspiracy?

obviously coming to mind thanks to Ezio, one thing i've been considering exploring for my ASB ATL is what would/could happen to Renaissance Italy if the Pazzi succeeded in destroying the Medici. for quick reference and for those who don't know, here's a quick run-down of the events of the conspiracy IOTL:

  • the ultimate goal of the Pazzi was to replace the Medici as rulers of Florence, and were aided by the Salviati and Florentine Papal bankers, and Pope Sixtus IV was a personal enemy of the Medici
  • the conspiracy entailed the assassination of both Lorenzo and Giuliano de' Medici, though Sixtus IV purportedly only supported the plot if no one were to be killed; IOTL, only Giuliano was killed
  • the conspiracy started on April 26, 1478, during High Mass in the Duomo, and in front of ten thousand people, no less; as stated, Giuliano was killed here, and Lorenzo was seriously injured but managed to escape
  • after the attempted assassination, there was a coordinated attempt to capture the Gonfaloniere and Signoria, but these failed when the Salviati were trapped in a locked room. soon after, the conspirators were attacked and killed by enraged Florentines; specifically, Jacopo de' Pazzi was thrown out a window, dragged through the streets, and thrown into the Arno River, and Salviati was hanged from the Palazzo Vecchio; the rest of the major conspirators were later hunted down throughout Italy
  • at least 600 troops commanded by Federico da Montefeltro were committed to the conspiracy, expected to enter Florence at the right moment
  • after the conspiracy ended IOTL, Florence was forbidden from holding mass or communion by the Pope because the Salviati archbishop had been killed in the aftermath, and King Ferdinand I of Naples was enlisted by Sixtus IV to attack Florence; Lorenzo more or less resolved this by placing himself in the custody of Don Ferrante
  • the conspiracy IOTL resulted in the Medici supporters that greater concentrations of political power were desirable, and Lorenzo gained more power in foreign affairs in general
the most plausible POD is probably that Lorenzo is mortally wounded in the Duomo and the Gonfaloniere and Signoria are captured by the Pazzi and the other conspirators. does anyone have any ideas as to what would happen afterward? though i'm specifically looking at what would happen if the Pazzi succeed, the actual historical events seem to indicate that the Florentines wouldn't accept Pazzi rule and would drive them out or kill them. the events from then on, most likely, would instead focus on the lack of Lorenzo from that point on (IOTL, he lived to 1492)
 
As you say, the Pazzi and Pope both wildly overestimated the Florentine public's willingness to tolerate them. However, a significant part of the outrage stemmed from their conducting the assassination in a cathedral in front of ten thousand people attempting to practice their religion. It was chosen because it was the only predictable time and place where the brothers would be together and unarmed. Arrange some similar, less public event - a wedding, say - and things will stay a LITTLE more under control.

I'd have to do a lot of research on Florentine politics - but economically, one of the major banking houses of Europe has just collapsed. The Medici's non-Italian clients are going to be forced to find new bankers, and they're probably going to go with Genoa, although Venice has a shot. Your scenario seems likely to be the decline of Florence and rise of Genoa to me.
 
Lorenzo was instrumental in keeping the balance (and the peace) among the major Italian states.
Even if the conspiracy is successful, there will be a period of civil war in Florence, and the structure and influence of the Florentine state will be weakened.
The ham-fisted attempt of the pope to interfere so heavily in the internal politics of another Italian state will be not well received.
Venice is busy fighting the Turks in the Egean, and may hold herself aloof from Italian politics (in particular if the Serenissima gets a guarantee from Milan and Naples, and the promise of compensation in the Romagne). OTOH the temporary removal of Florentine bankers from the international lending market will have a positive impact on Venetian economy.
IIRC, Milan and Naples were getting closer, and there were already plans for a dinastic marriage. If this is not too premature, there might be even a possible alliance between the two (maybe co-opting the new Florence shaky masters as junior partners), and dividing central Italy among them (the Great Western Schism ended in 1470, and the Papal States are still a mess. The HRE emperor is hardly in a position to intervene, and the same applies to the king of France. Don't believe Aragon will go looking for adventures.
TTL could see a very short set of Italian wars resulting in a kind of triumvirate (Milan, Naples and Venice) dividing the peninsula in spheres of influence (if not outright annexations) and controlling the papal seat: could be very interesting.
 
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