Successful Lopez Filibuster of Cuba in 1850

[The Tai-Pan]

In 1850 a Mexican adventurer named Narisco Lopez canvassed the American South for volunteers for a filibuster operation into Cuba. In OTL, while he gained widespread support, he was saddled with bad luck, a hostile Federal government and poor planning. While he did eventually land a force, it barely amounted to anything and fled back to Florida in defeat. Lopez would try again and in 1851 was executed by Spanish troops for a similar operation (along with a bunch of Americans).

One interesting note is that, for his first attempt, Lopez approached both Jefferson Davis and Robert E. Lee to take active roles, promising them Cuban plantations. Both men seriously considered the offers, but declined. What if both men had joined the effort, and lent the operation their considerable political, financial and military influence?

How would America have faced an on-going realistic chance at taking over Cuba and war with Spain? Would the North ever concede another imperialistic land-grab so soon after mexico, this time even more blatantly illegal and founded on the expansion of slavery? But if the North did not, would the South agree to back away from a possible expansion of a vast new area to expand their power? Might it trigger a civil war?

It seems an interesting alternate route for America to take.

 

[SwampTiger]

Such an action would certainly bring greater tension between slave and free states. A Radicalized Northern electorate may split the Whigs earlier. The Democrats will certainly split earlier.

You have a large number of southern born military leaders to choose from if the expedition gathers momentum. I doubt an earlier ACW before 1858 or 1859, sparked more likely by a Bleeding Kansas crisis.

He may have had better luck under President Millard Fillmore or Franklin Pierce should he have gained more support from Manifest Destiny supporters and a broader appeal throughout the South. His attempts with only 600 or fewer troops were crushed. He needed more, better trained and better led troops. His expeditions were otherwise doomed. I wonder if Lopez could have enlisted William Walker or Count Gaston de Raousset-Boulbon into his plans.

 

[pathfinder]

Supposing it works, I can see even more and larger filibustering expeditions being organized than otl

 

[Duke of Orlando]

This could work with enough Southern support. With a southern president it’s even possible he might be able to get a supply line of “smugglers” going if he makes a beach head. If you can make the second Carlist war go on a few more years that would help distract Spain.

The after effects though would be huge. The Northerns would be angry at the slave territory gained and wouldn’t want to let the “Republic of Cuba” join the Union as it would mean inheriting a war with Spain that they’d have to fight being the majority of the navy. They might be persuaded but they’d need a very big carrot. And to be frank I’m not sure what that carrot would be. Maybe a roll back of some parts of the compromise of 1850, with the promise of a free Kansas? It would be easier to swallow if the could buy the island after taking it avoiding the war but I don’t know if Spain would go for it. Assuming this goes well filibustering definitely becomes a southern passion. Andd maybe a northern one as well if they feel the need to balance out those states. Likely targets are Central America, northern Mexico, Haïti, the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico.