Successful Kiev Offensive: Independent West Ukraine

What if the Kiev Offensive had been a success and a western Ukrainian state under Petliura had been established?

At the least I imagine it's territory would be comprised of lands between the Dnieper and Galicia.

I imagine a Belarusian state would have been established as well unless the Poles outright annex more of Belarus (which they were offered OTL but rejected).

If the Soviets are pushed behind the Dnieper, what will that mean for European geopolitics?
 
Depends on how much of litva they free up, I have my doubts as to whether the poles at this point would create an enlarged Lithuania (modern). Three groups claimed vilno; Poland,post 1918 Lithuania, and post 1918 Belarus. I guess you could say 4, the Russians also wanted inside their empire.

Alot depends on what and how Poland decides to treat these peoples. If their is equality and a common vision then it just becomes Uber Poland, if not then they will have no choice but to create buffer states
 
Well, IMO there was very little chance Poland would give up Vilnius, so Polish-Lithuanian conflict would be a sure thing and it would probably end as IOTL, with Polish victory and Lithuanian grudge. However, Ukraine with Kiev would be too big and too strong to incorporate it into Poland, so I believe Poles would go with Piłsudski's idea of Intermare, since there would be no sane alternative for it. For pretty much the same reason Poland would probably create a Belarussian state. IOTL after loosing the battles of Warsaw and Niemen Soviets offered Minsk to Poland, but Poles refused worried about already large number of non-Polish citizens in Poland.
Now, all those states, Poland included, will be devastated by wars and would need to build a modern administration and economic system practically from nothing. IMO Poland would be im better position in this case with larger number of educated people, many of them with experience from Galician administration. Add to it economical and ethnic problems and Polish-Ukrainian-Belorussian alliance would be somewhat shaky, and would stay together only because of Soviet threat. The Soviets would send their agents and agitators to all those states to cause problems (they did it IOTL against Poland) so all those states, especially Ukraine and Belarus would not be very stable and that makes chances for western style democracy rather small. In much more stable Poland democratically elected government was overthrown by Piłsudski after less than 5 years.
It is hard to say how Intermare would be viewed by western powers. France will probably be friendly enough, hoping to become protector and teacher for new European states, especially Poland and indirectly Belarus and Ukraine. Britain would be more cautious about larger French influence in Europe. Germany and USSR hostile.
 
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