Successful Japanese Operation FS

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_FS

Japan was building an airbase on Guadalcanal that became Henderson field in preparation for conquest of Fiji, Samoa, and New Caledonia in summer or early fall of 1942. Presuming this is accelerated and Japan controls these islands by summer of 1942, what is the practical effect on the Pacific war if any?
 
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_FS

Japan was building an airbase on Guadalcanal that became Henderson field in preparation for conquest of Fiji, Samoa, and New Caledonia in summer or early fall of 1942. Presuming this is accelerated and Japan controls these islands by summer of 1942, what is the practical effect on the Pacific war if any?

The difficulty with this question is that Operation FS, as it existed, was almost as close to requiring Alien Space Bats to achieve success as a Japanese invasion of Oahu in the summer of 1942, even assuming a clear victory at Midway. Large seagoing mammals may be detectable by their odor.

See discussion here, for example, for the extraordinary difficulties involved. Japan just didn't have the logistics, the troops, or the amphibious capabilities do it, short of the Allies deciding to completely abandon all of these islands.

So you almost certainly need an earlier and more radical point of departure to make the Japanese conquest of Fiji, Samoa and New Caledonia feasible, and we would need to know what that is in order to evaluate the effects of such a conquest.
 
Interesting - thanks for the info.

Per your request: (A) the Japanese grab the islands simultaneously with Indochina, or (B) the Japanese proceed earlier in 1942 and manage to take the islands with heavy losses
 

nbcman

Donor
In the short term, it will take longer for US ships to get to Australia since they have to sail further south closer to New Zealand but the IJN can't block shipping. It is around 1500 km from Noumea to the northern tip of NZ with a whole lot of sea for Japan to search to catch a US ship. If the Americans were sensible when faced with Japan holding Fiji, Samoa and New Caledonia, they would hold in the South Pacific and push through the Central Pacific instead of their two pronged approach of OTL.

For Japan, it dramatically increases their defense perimeter and stretches the distances their scarce merchant ships have to travel.

IMO - politically damaging to US, AUS & NZ public opinion due to the loss of more territory but a net nothing in the ending of the Pacific War.
 
In the short term, it will take longer for US ships to get to Australia since they have to sail further south closer to New Zealand but the IJN can't block shipping. It is around 1500 km from Noumea to the northern tip of NZ with a whole lot of sea for Japan to search to catch a US ship. If the Americans were sensible when faced with Japan holding Fiji, Samoa and New Caledonia, they would hold in the South Pacific and push through the Central Pacific instead of their two pronged approach of OTL.

For Japan, it dramatically increases their defense perimeter and stretches the distances their scarce merchant ships have to travel.

IMO - politically damaging to US, AUS & NZ public opinion due to the loss of more territory but a net nothing in the ending of the Pacific War.

In retrospect, so many arm chair admirals and generals have asked, "Why did we screw around with the SWPA? Why not draw a straight line from Diamond Head to Fuji, and go CRAZY on their asses?". This might have provided the answer to that particular question...Australia would still serve as "Sub Service Sentral" for the USN, but otherwise would be a sideshow.
 
(A) the Japanese grab the islands simultaneously with Indochina

Daring but interesting thought.

The Aussies would lose their minds.

Thing is, though, the population was very pro-Free French. The Conseil General of the territory voted unanimously to support the Free French government in June 1940 - and turfed out the pro-Vichy governor. Quite a different situation from Indochina (and one hell of a lot further away from Japanese territory).
 
In retrospect, so many arm chair admirals and generals have asked, "Why did we screw around with the SWPA? Why not draw a straight line from Diamond Head to Fuji, and go CRAZY on their asses?".

I think that wouldn't have made King and Nimitz all that unhappy.
 
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