Successful French Counter Attack At Sedan, 1940

Anaxagoras

Banned
During the Battle of France, on the afternoon of May 14, 1940, the French had a golden opportunity to mount a devastating counter attack against the Germans at Sedan.

On that day, two of the three panzer divisions formed up in a line facing westward in preparation for their drive to the west, with only a single infantry regiment protecting their left (southern) flank. At that moment, the French 3rd Armored and 3rd Mechanized Divisions were forming up directly to the south of them in preparation for a counter attack. Had it gone forward, it would have smashed into the exposed German flank and possibly rolled up the German line.

IOTL, as happened all too often during the Battle of France, the attack was called off for reasons that are not entirely clear. What if some commander with more initiative had taken control of the situation and ordered the attack to go forward? Judging by their performance in local battles elsewhere during the campaign, the French might have been able to achieve a tactical victory. At the very least, heavy losses would have been inflicted on the Germans.

Because the German high command was terrified of exactly this sort of French response, it is possible that even a local success might have compelled the Germans to pull their forces back to the east bank of the Meuse. At the very least, the German drive to the Channel would have been delayed, perhaps for several days, giving the Allied time to adjust to their difficult and dangerous situation.

It seems to me that the potential impact of this POD is enormous. Thoughts?
 
IMHO, no go. Counter attack would be smashed by Stukas. Besides French High command would have had enormous problems coordinating such an attack. Their C3 could never cope with demands of mobile battle.
 
During the Battle of France, on the afternoon of May 14, 1940, the French had a golden opportunity to mount a devastating counter attack against the Germans at Sedan.

On that day, two of the three panzer divisions formed up in a line facing westward in preparation for their drive to the west, with only a single infantry regiment protecting their left (southern) flank. At that moment, the French 3rd Armored and 3rd Mechanized Divisions were forming up directly to the south of them in preparation for a counter attack. Had it gone forward, it would have smashed into the exposed German flank and possibly rolled up the German line.

IOTL, as happened all too often during the Battle of France, the attack was called off for reasons that are not entirely clear. What if some commander with more initiative had taken control of the situation and ordered the attack to go forward? Judging by their performance in local battles elsewhere during the campaign, the French might have been able to achieve a tactical victory. At the very least, heavy losses would have been inflicted on the Germans.

Because the German high command was terrified of exactly this sort of French response, it is possible that even a local success might have compelled the Germans to pull their forces back to the east bank of the Meuse. At the very least, the German drive to the Channel would have been delayed, perhaps for several days, giving the Allied time to adjust to their difficult and dangerous situation.

It seems to me that the potential impact of this POD is enormous. Thoughts?

So its May 14th.

The 1st and 2nd Panzer Divisions already won the race for Bulson Ridge the day before. [This is probably the best POD for messing with Guderian's Panzer Corps at Sedan.]

An infantry regiment and the 10th Panzer are what is left to hold the bridgehead on the south side of the Meuse. IOTL on the 15th, these forces attacked south to the Stonne Plateau to widen the bridgehead and were successful into the 16th. The night of the 16th, two infantry divisions showed up to reinforce the perimeter of the bridgehead.


What sort of logistical situation would the two French Division's be in on the 14th? How much gas do they have left after manuevering to get to their starting point for the attack? How early on the 14th do they start moving forward and how far do they need to go before they start engaging the Germans? And what sort of tanks to the French have (Char B1? FCM 36? Hotchkiss H35? other?), cause some of them don't move too fast?


Its possible a French attack could start pushing the Germans off of Bulson Ridge. Its less probable the French have the logistic ability to keep following through with the attack. It would help them if they could launch their attack in the morning, but how probable is that.


A problem for the French with the attack happening on the 14th is that the 1st and 2nd Panzer divisions will not have gone very far west yet, so if the situtation starts to look dicey, German reinforcements can show up fairly quickly.

For impacting the drive to the channel, which formations Guiderian would call back could be important. Would he call back an entire division? If so, would he let the other division keep going or order it to stand in place?


Guderian has a history of ignoring orders in the Battle of France, so even if he had to bring some force back to the Sedan area to help stop a French counter attack, I think he would turn right back around and re-up the drive toward the channel; ignoring any order to keep all his panzers near Sedan till the infantry caught up.


At most, Guderian's forces would be delayed 2 days heading west. (This could make for an alternate encounter with Degaulle's improvised 4th armored division which IOTL fought on the 17th.) Is all this enough to stop a successful drive to the channel. Maybe for Guiderian. Probably not for the rest of the German forces in Fall Gelb/Fall Rot. Ultimately even with slowing of Guderian's tanks, there are still the Panzer divisions of Hoth and Reinhardt driving west to the Channel.
 
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During the Battle of France, on the afternoon of May 14, 1940, the French had a golden opportunity to mount a devastating counter attack against the Germans at Sedan.

On that day, two of the three panzer divisions formed up in a line facing westward in preparation for their drive to the west, with only a single infantry regiment protecting their left (southern) flank. At that moment, the French 3rd Armored and 3rd Mechanized Divisions were forming up directly to the south of them in preparation for a counter attack. Had it gone forward, it would have smashed into the exposed German flank and possibly rolled up the German line.

IOTL, as happened all too often during the Battle of France, the attack was called off for reasons that are not entirely clear. What if some commander with more initiative had taken control of the situation and ordered the attack to go forward? Judging by their performance in local battles elsewhere during the campaign, the French might have been able to achieve a tactical victory. At the very least, heavy losses would have been inflicted on the Germans.

Because the German high command was terrified of exactly this sort of French response, it is possible that even a local success might have compelled the Germans to pull their forces back to the east bank of the Meuse. At the very least, the German drive to the Channel would have been delayed, perhaps for several days, giving the Allied time to adjust to their difficult and dangerous situation.

It seems to me that the potential impact of this POD is enormous. Thoughts?

Someone by the name of DeGaulle got command of the 4th Armored Division and launched a counterattack, a few weeks after this proposed POD. Suppose he got his Division a couple of months earlier, and it was the 3rd, not the 4th

1 He was not afraid to act decisively, whatever his other faults. How much of a push might he reasonably be expected to provide that day with his division? Might he act without or in spite of orders?

2 If the Germans do reach the Channel nonetheless, is there anyone to go on the radio and announce that France had lost a battle but not the war? Does it take until Torch for a Free French movement to come into being?
 
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