Successful Danture Campaign (full Portuguese Conquest of Ceylon)

In 1594 the Portuguese undertook the Campaign of Danture against the native Sri Lankan Kingdom of Kandy.

This effort was led by "conquistador" Pedro Lopes de Sousa (governor of Portuguese Ceylon), who commanded a force of about 1000 Portuguese, 15,400 Lascarins (catholic Sri Lankan militiamen) and a number of indigenous mercenaries. The purpose of the expedition was to deppose the usuper king Vimaladharmasūriya of Kandy and install the catholic-educated princess Kusumāsana Devi (baptized Dona Catarina ) as the new ruler.

Ultimately, the expedition was unsuccessful due to the inability of the Portuguese to maintain the trust of their native allies (almost all Lascarins had defected by the end). If it had succeeded, then, assuming the conquest of the Kingdom of Jaffna is completed as per OTL, the Portuguese would have established loyalty over the entirety of Ceylon, unlike IOTL where the Kingdom of Kandy subsisted and eventually invited the Dutch in.

Assuming the Portuguese manage not to hostilize their allies to the point of causing defections and the Campaign succeeds, how will Portuguese Ceylon develop?

Of course the Dutch will still be a problem in the future, but, without a strong and organized native ally, I'd argue that their chances of taking over the island should be much lower.
 
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If the British Raj ended up establishing itself anyway, then the Portuguese would likely see their position in the region strengthened (assuming the Anglo-Portuguese Alliance remains intact). I don't know if it would be sufficient to keep the Empire from declining, though.
 

Kinda like how all of Portugal's empire went, there's the initial conquest but they lacked any economic advantage outside of the military means that they will be forced to extortion leading to the locals catching up militarily and becoming politically isolated in a few decades. IOTL the Feitorias ran into the problem that despite their mandate from Lisbon telling them to bring back spices worth x amount, there was so much more profit selling spices to Asia instead. Like all feudal lords did the governors of India made money on the side and reluctantly sent the shoddier goods back to Portugal. IOTL if they went too hard with their extortion then the traders would simply engage in night-time smuggling, something they can't stop pre-telegraph.

Oh yeah and I forgot to mention, the South African route is very dangerous and unreliable. Ship loses were around 25-50% average, delays ran into months which meant lost profits as they miss seasonal highs for spice prices and insurance headaches.

At the end of the day Portugal was too poor to trade with India and too weak & distant to extort India militarily for any significant period of time.
 
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