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An AH scenario most dear to my Europeanist heart is when Europe successfully manages to avoid the political fragmentation and emergence of myriad separate national(istic) identities it experienced after the fall of the Roman Empire, which only recently European integration is (oh so agonizingly slowly) trying to revert. The most obvious (and clichè) way of doing so would be to seek a TL where a successful Roman Empire survives and assimilates Central-Eastern Europe. However, this is indeed a bit clichè for AH and hence maybe better discussing another day.

Therefore, I would prefer discussing the next-best potential alternative, a successful Carolingian Empire. As a tentative PoD, I assume that at the Battle of Fontenoy (841), Lothair completely defeats Charles the Bald and Louis the German, who are killed in battle, and successfully claims imperium on the whole Frankish Empire. Over the next 3-4 generations (owning to the precedent of Charlemagne, Louis the Pious, and Lothair, the lucky occurrence of some surviving only sons in the Imperial line, and Emperors ruthlessly crushing separatist rebellions like Louis the Pius and Lothair did), the expected consensus in the ruling class of the Empire gradually builds that the supreme political authority in the indivisible Empire only transfers to one individual, the son whom the previous Emperor designated as successor. Any other cadet sons may (and typically do) end up employed by the Emperor as viceroys, ministers, and generals, but are clearly always politically subordinate to Imperial command.

Over the next few decades and centuries, the Empire expands and centralizes more and more, developing an efficient civil service (first essentially ecclesiastical, then increasingly secular too as the urban elites expand in numbers, wealth, and efficiency) and re-establishes a well-organized and well-trained army based on professional infantry alongside the noble cavalry, consciously drawing on the Roman model and precedent. This army serves the Empire well in crushing the Arab, Norse, and Hungarian inroads into Western Europe, which are repelled or redirected elsewhere. Gradually the Empire expands its borders to thoroughly assimilate Southern Italy and Central Europe and it establishes its borders on the Oder and in Sicily and later on the Vistula and the Carpathians (defeated Magyars are assimilated at a slightly slower pace than Western Slavs and Poles, but just as securely). Norse settlements in Normandy and Arab-Norman conquest of Sicily are wholly done away. The Norse are eventually redirected to settle and conquer the British Isles and European Russia, where they create the nuclei for future rival Empires.

Europe successfully escapes feudal fragmentation, and smoothly progresses from (OTL aborted) Carolingian Renaissance to the ATL-equivalent of the High Medieval Renaissance, which is effectively anticipated by a couple centuries and accelerated by about another century in its pace by political unity across Western-Central Europe. Likewise, the pace of the Spanish Reconquista is greatly accelerated, by 3-4 centuries at most. The emergence of separate national identities and political entities is completely prevented from Portugal to Poland (the united Empire means that the pace of Drang Nach Osten is greatly enhanced, which means Slavs and Magyars between Oder and Vistula-Carpathians are thoroughly as assimilated as Slavs between Elbe and Oder were IOTL).


The Emperor easily wins the Investiture Controversy with the Pope and the development of the Church is redirected to make it as politically neutral and subservient to the State as the Orthodox Church was to the Byzantine and Russian Emperors. Likely it structures its doctrine and organization as some hybrid of the Orthodox and Episcopal models. The Pope becomes the Patriarch of Rome, again the first among equals (and quite possibly the equal of the Patriarch of Constantinople) and nowhere as politically and culturally relevant as IOTL. The Ecumenic Council remains the supreme political authority in the Church.

It is also an almost foregone conclusion that the effectiveness of the Crusades counterstrike by Christian Europe towards the Muslim world would be greatly enhanced. The Turkish conquest of Anatolia is wholly done away and most or all of North Africa, Egypt, Palestine, Syria and quite possibly Mesopotamia is conquered and re-Christianized. The Muslim world gets a most severe blow dealt to, quite surpassing the OTL Mongol onslaught, even if it may maintain a power center in Persia (although it is possible Christian expansion expands to Persia too, if the Frankish and Byzantine empires are able to cooperate very effectively).

Quite possibly the Byzantine Empire is granted a rather good new lease on life, possibly the potential to grow back and be the main superpower rival/partner to the Frankish Empire. Or it may not, ending just as badly crippled as it was in OTL by Latin conquest attempts. It wholly depends on the kind of relationship it establishes with the Carolingian superpower, whether the two Empires can develop cooperation or vicious rivalry over the Reconquista of the Middle East and the control of the trade routes to the Black Sea and the Persian Gulf. Plenty of possible variants here. A possible scenario includes the FE claiming North Africa and Egypt, BE Syria, Mesopotamia, and Palestine, with Jerusalem as a contested prize for prestige reasons.


But either way, Islam is done away as the second world religion (Hinduism takes its place), as it only keeps Persia as a decent power center (or lacking it, rather minor ones in Central Asia, Indonesia and Western subsaharian Africa). The Islamic conquest of India is most likely done away too, although it is possible that refugees from the Middle East flood India and Islamize it more effectively than IOTL.


One obvious natural border between the two empires is the Carpathians, although the Western Balkans become an uneasy buffer/contested zone. Plenty of ground for the usual merry political/ethnic chaos here. This might lead to an healing of the Eastern Schism (only likely if the two Empires develop a really good partnership) or its affirmation, as both Empires seek to have total political control over their respective halves of the Church.

Concerning Northern and Eastern Europe, plenty of possible variants here. Although the most likely one is that the Frankish Empire mostly focuses on expanding east and south once the Norse are repelled, neglecting Northern Europe (and assimilating Central Europe is going to take some time and effort) and the steppes. It is quite possible that at some point a Frankish Emperor may seek to conquer England like William IOTL. However the most plausible outcome is that the Scandinavians are mostly left undisturbed in their efforts to conquer the British Isles, and hence successful. A king of Denmark or Norway that claims the throne of England might easily draw on its resources to fuel the unification of Scandinavia. Hence the Carolingian unification could spawn the unification of a rival “Norse” Empire spanning the British Isles and Scandinavia. Another worthy rival for the Carolingian superpower, although rather more disadvantaged in manpower and economic resources until and unless it develop naval supremacy against the Frankish superpower (likely supreme on land) and/or it makes some serious colonization effort beyond Europe.

A more extensive Norse penetration in Russia could also foster the creation of another major power in a more successful Kievan Rus (and/or Norse Lithuania), although they should still have to face the Mongol onslaught to be truly established as a great power. Hence, the timeline may easily see the birth of 3-4 great powers in the mostly unified Western Eurasia space (as each budding Empire fosters the development of other power centers as a reaction). Commercial and military competition between them keeps the cultural and technological development steady and lively (at least as quick as IOTL, keeping the 2-3 centuries advantage from the avoidance of feudalism, possibly significantly more, the benefits of larger national political unifications), and in a relatively short time the European empires would start extra-European colonization. Conquest of the Americas would be a (vicious) contest between the Frankish and the Norse (just to go against cliché, I say that the Norse colonize South America, the Frankish colonize North America, and the Caribbean are the coveted contested area, as usual).


India quite possibly becomes the prize of a merry three-way contest between the Frankish, the Norse, and the Byzantine, although it is possible that Christian conquest of Persia may trigger its Islamic-driven unification to become yet another successful great power (but then again, the internal instability caused by Islamization could just as likely leave it rather vulnerable to European penetration).

How all of this would affect the Mongol expansion and China is hard to say: they might easily be just as successful as OTL (although a unified Europe and/or Middle East could cause them to be roll backed from Russia rather more quickly), or a sturdy Byzantine Empire and Kievan Rus with professional armies developed on the Frankish model could resist the Mongol effectively (esp. if they get major Frankish assistance) which would prevent the Mongol destruction of the Russian and Middle Eastern economies. The effects of these historical changes on China are quite variable. This TL most likely sees the establishment of earlier and stronger trade links between unified, quickly developing Europe and Middle East, which could prevent China from falling into isolationism and cultural stagnation. This could spell the assimilation of Korea, Japan, South East Asia, and China growing to be a worthy rival to the European empires half a millennium early. Or alternatively less successful Mongol repelled from Russia and the Middle East fall back on China and entrench there, delaying the fall of the Yuan Dynasty and causing an even more vicious isolationist backlash in Chinese culture at its downfall, ensuring a historical path akin to OTL. Or it may just last long enough to entrench a taste for cosmopolitan cultural diversity among Chinese elites even beyond its lifespan.

As usual, the Native Amarican cultures are even more thoroughly screwed up, as resource-greedy, technologically more advanced Europeans show up earlier in even greater numbers to enslave or exterminate them. Only the banners they carry and the languages they speak change.


Culturally, an obvious consequence is that Western Eurasia is much more unified linguistically, with only 3-4 major languages first spoken throughout the elites, then entrenched among the populace at large during Industrialization. The Carolingian Empire initially keeps Latin as an administrative langauge, but the urban elites grow, eventually develops *Frankish, an hybrid German-Romance language with heavy Latin borrowings most likely loosely akin to OTL English. The Norse Empire likewise develops from Latin to *Danish, a wholly Germanic (save for some Latin borrowings) Scandinavian-Saxon hybrid. The Byzantines, obviously, keep their Greek, while Arab falls screaming in the dustbin of history.

Any other ideas ? Comments ? E.g. what about long-term political and cultural developments ? Would this world ever experience the Reformation (an *Anglican Schism is quite likely, as the Norse Empire eventually seeks to divorce control of its own Church from Frankish control, but since the Western Church is less centralized, this is less serious, possibly the equivalent of an Orthodox national Church becoming autocephalous) and the middle class revolutions ?
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